Behind the Curtain: A just-stay-calm strategy

• Both parties are preparing to challenge ballots, especially if mail-in or absentee votes are decisive in swing states, raising the possibility of prolonged court fights.

Big money will be spent to confuse you: GOP donors and conservative billionaires has given $140 million to 50 "election integrity" groups, as part of a potential Stop the Steal 2.0 if the vote doesn't go former President Trump's way, The Wall Street Journal reports on today's front page (gift link)

• Nearly half of Republican candidates for Congress or top state offices (at least 236) have used social media to cast doubt on the election, The Washington Post found (gift link).

The big picture: If the results are delayed, the U.S. could enter a period of legal drama, political gridlock and even civil unrest.

• Because of post-2020 legal changes across the country, including in all seven swing states, many results could be slower than in 2020 — when Biden officially went over the top on Saturday, four days after Election Day.
• Both sides' legal teams are more organized this time, increasing the chances for drawn-out legal challenges: "If the election is very close, then it's going to be litigated to the hilt," election law expert Rick Hasen predicts.

Between the lines: During those hours or days of limbo, fake and manipulated news will proliferate to the point that even cautious news consumers will be in danger of falling for falsehoods.

• We saw this after the recent hurricanes, where conspiracy theorists pushed false stories about the storm's origins and the government's response, leading to threats against meteorologists and FEMA workers. Expect the same on Election Day.
• Aggressive foreign enemies are already trying to mess with the election: The office of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Wednesday that it had repelled a cyberattack, believed to have come from a foreign country, against a website for requesting absentee ballots.

What you can do: An easy solution would be to cut back on the time you spend tweeting or reading X.

• There's high-quality news and information on X. But it's commingled with misinformation, conjecture and nonsense.
• Be equally careful on all social media platforms. Don't share, like or react to anything you're not certain is real. If you think it's fake, assume it is until it's proven otherwise.

Partisan actors have an incentive to seize on every nugget of positive data, even when it's incomplete. You're already seeing it with the way both sides are spinning early-voting tallies.

• Beware the armchair experts, especially those boosted by X's pro-Trump owner: A CBS News investigation found 55% of Elon Musk's tweets about election security contained misleading or false statements.

Pick a few trustworthy accounts rather than gorging on whatever pops up.

• Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report (@redistrict) is an essential follow if you want live play-by-play of crucial counties, as are the two Nates — @NateSilver538 and @Nate_Cohn.
• Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) is your man in Nevada ... Garrett Archer (@Garrett_Archer) in Arizona ... Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution crew in Georgia.

Know your facts: Every state counts votes differently, and abides by its own rules. Here's how vote counting will work in the seven swing states, drawn from Axios reporting and a series of AP "Decision Notes," giving state-by-state info on how the wire service will call races.

• Pennsylvania: Tabulation of mail ballots in the most important swing state doesn't begin until after polls close. Mail ballots made up almost a quarter of the vote in the 2022 midterms. So determining the winner in a close race could take several days — as it did in 2020, when Biden was declared the winner on the Saturday after the election.
• Wisconsin: The counts can come slowly from the two biggest counties, the Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Dane. In a close race, we might need final results from both places to know the winner.

• Michigan: In 2020, AP didn't call the Great Lakes State for Joe Biden until 6pm the day after the election. Local officials will have more time this year to process and tabulate absentee ballots, helping clear the logjam that slowed counting last time. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said she expects results to be certified the day after the election.
• Georgia: In 2020, Biden wasn't declared winner of this surprise swing state until 8pm on the Thursday after the election. Lawmakers have since made several changes to counting rules, including moving up certification deadlines and requiring counties to continuously tabulate until 5pm the day after the election.
• North Carolina: In 2020, Trump wasn't declared the winner until 4pm on the Friday after the election. This year's vote could be slowed with some areas dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. But early voting so far is tracking ahead of 2020.
• Arizona: This was such a tight state in 2020 that, aside from the famously early call by Fox News, networks waited nine days to declare Biden the winner. Expect another lengthy count: The process of verifying signatures on early ballots dropped off on Election Day causes notoriously long delays in finalizing results.
• Nevada: Silver State elections are conducted predominantly by mail — and ballots postmarked by Nov. 5 will be counted if they're received by Nov. 9, four days after Election Day. So tight races might not be determined until then. In 2020, AP didn't call Nevada for Biden until the Saturday after the election, when the networks determined he was president-elect.

What we're watching: Expect multiple recounts, court challenges and disputes over the validity of late-arriving mail ballots, potentially dragging results into late November or beyond.

• Prolonged uncertainty could spark protests, especially if either candidate prematurely claims victory. State capitals and major cities may need to increase security to manage potential clashes.
• Market instability: Businesses and investors are likely to delay decisions until the outcome is clear.
• The added scrutiny and potential recounts will put crushing pressure on state and local officials — risking burnout and even resignations, further complicating the counting process.

The bottom line: Close races and new voting rules mean you should brace for sluggish results, contested outcomes and legal battles. Instead of the ballot tallies being the last word, both sides are likely to turn to courts and public opinion to try to sway the outcome.

• Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.