National

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

The continued delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine will provoke retaliation from Russia and will "lead to a global catastrophe," a Russian parliamentary leader warned Sunday.

Why it matters: The comments come amid debate among Germany, the U.S. and its allies as to whether to send tanks to Ukraine in accordance with requests from Kyiv.

Ukraine has a particular desire for German Leopard 2 tanks — which could also be provided by other NATO allies — and would replenish Ukraine's fleet of tanks, much of which has been worn out and destroyed over the nearly yearlong conflict, per The New York Times. 

However, Germany has been reluctant to make the first move over fears of escalation. 

Germany has indicated that it wants the U.S. to make the first move by sending its own Abrams tanks, which U.S. officials have resisted due to the logistics of maintaining them, Reuters reported.

What they're saying: Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, wrote in a Telegram post Sunday that if the U.S. and NATO send Ukraine weapons that could be used "to strike civilian cities and attempt to seize our territories," then Russia would respond with "retaliatory measures using more powerful weapons."

"With their decisions, Washington and Brussels are leading the world to a terrible war: to a completely different military action than today, when strikes are carried out exclusively on the military and critical infrastructure used by the Kyiv regime," Volodin said.

"Given the technological superiority of Russian weapons, foreign politicians making such decisions need to understand that this could end in a global tragedy that will destroy their countries," he added.

"Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable. Because these states did not face a situation where there was a threat to the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of the country."

State of play: Some members of Congress have advocated for the U.S. to provide the Abrams tanks. 

In light of a possible springtime offensive by Russia, the U.S. should act quickly to provide Ukraine with the tanks they need, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) told ABC's "This Week" Sunday.

"If it requires our sending some Abrams tanks in order to unlock getting the Leopard tanks from Germany, from Poland, from other allies, I would support that," Coons said.

"I respect that our military leaders think the Abrams is too sophisticated, too expensive a platform to be as useful as the Leopards, but we need to continue to work with our close allies and move forward in lock step," Coons added.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the new chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told the same program Sunday that the U.S. should provide their tanks in order to spur other allies to do the same.

“Even saying we’re going to put Abrams tanks in, I think would be enough for Germany to unleash,” McCaul said.

Russian official says new weapons for Ukraine will result in "global catastrophe"

"With their decisions, Washington and Brussels are leading the world to a terrible war."

Vyacheslav Volodin speaks during the first plenary session of the Duma this year on Jan. 17. Photo: Getty Images

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ukraine

Russia

Chris Hipkins, New Zealand's education minister, on Sunday was confirmed as New Zealand’s next prime minister, replacing Jacinda Ardern after she announced her resignation earlier last week.

Driving the news: Hipkins, who had emerged as the only potential candidate from the country’s ruling Labor Party, chose Carmel Sepuloni as his deputy, marking the first time a person with Pacific Island heritage has risen to that rank, AP reports.

Hipkins will be officially sworn in to his new role on Wednesday. 

He will hold the position until the party's term ends. The country’s next general election is scheduled for Oct. 14.

Context: Hipkins, considered a lifelong politician, joined the Parliament in 2008 and rose in notability during the pandemic as he served in Ardern’s cabinet, CNN reports.

While serving as education minister, he also works as the minister for police and public service, and is New Zealand’s Leader of the House.

Like Hipkins, Sepuloni first became a lawmaker 15 years ago and has most recently taken on the employment and social development portfolios in the country, per AP.

“I want to acknowledge the significance of this for our Pacific community,” Sepuloni said. “I am proudly Samoan, Tongan and New Zealand European, and represent generations of New Zealanders with mixed heritage.”

How we got here: Ardern announced Jan. 19 that she would step down as New Zealand’s leader, saying she no longer has "that bit extra in the tank to do the job justice. It’s that simple.”

"I hope I leave New Zealanders with a belief that you can be kind but strong, empathetic but decisive, optimistic but focused," she said. "And that you can be your own kind of leader — one who knows when it's time to go."

Ardern's leadership of New Zealand put her on the map as a major global figure. She guided the country through a mass shooting, and helped pass major gun control measures in its aftermath. She was praised for her handling of both that situation and guiding the country through the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Go deeper: Ardern's exit after "unprecedented" threats shows toll of burnout for women leaders

Chris Hipkins to replace Ardern as New Zealand's prime minister

He chooses Carmel Sepuloni as his deputy, marking the first time a person with Pacific Island heritage rises to that rank.

Chris Hipkins, New Zealand's incoming prime minister, during a news conference at the executive wing of the Parliamentary complex in Wellington, New Zealand, on Sunday, Jan. 23. Photo: Mark Coote/Bloomberg via Getty Images

New Zealand

Tel Aviv

Axios from Tel Aviv

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Shas party leader Aryeh Deri on Sunday — four days after the Supreme Court revoked the appointment of his close political ally as minister of interior and health.

Why it matters: It's a major political setback for Netanyahu and his government, which came to power less than a month ago. Deri was one of the most experienced politicians in Netanyahu's government and one of the only ministers the prime minister truly trusted.

It's also a political blow to Deri and the Shas party. It will be very hard to find a legislative solution to bypass the Supreme Court ruling and allow Deri to become a minister again.

Driving the news: The Supreme Court had ruled Deri's appointment was "highly unreasonable" due to the Shas party leader's past criminal convictions.

During a Cabinet meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu read a letter he gave Deri announcing he is firing him.

Netanyahu wrote that the Supreme Court decision "disregarded the will of the people" in the last election.

He stressed he will "seek every legal path" that will allow Deri to continue contributing and return to government.

What they're saying: Deri said in the Cabinet meeting that once the ruling was made, he didn't contemplate at any point not adhering to it.

He denied that he had made a commitment in his plea bargain last year to leave political life as the Supreme Court said in its ruling.

"I am committed to 400,000 Shas voters. No court ruling will stop me from representing and serving them. I will continue leading Shas party," Deri said.

He added that he will help the government to implement its controversial judicial overhaul plan, which would weaken the Supreme Court and other democratic institutions. The plan has faced growing opposition from the Israeli public, with more than 100,000 people across Israel joining protests against the government on Saturday night. 

Go deeper: Netanyahu judicial overhaul will be "fatal blow" to Israel's democracy, top judge says

Netanyahu sacks key ally to comply Israeli Supreme Court ruling

It's a major political setback for Netanyahu and his government, which came to power less than a month ago.

Aryeh Deri and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu

Israeli Interior Minister Aryeh Deri and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talk at a Cabinet meeting on Jan. 8. Photo: Ronen Zvulum/AFP via Getty Images

Benjamin Netanyahu

Israel

Sneak Peek

Axios Sneak Peek

DAKAR, Senegal — On a trip to Gorée Island, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen condemned the horrors of human bondage while honoring the suffering and spirit of enslaved Africans — as well as their descendants in the United States.

Why it matters: Yellen used the visit to the "House of Slaves" memorial to emphasize the central theme of her 10-day trip: Africa and the U.S. are intimately linked. 

It's an argument she has already delivered in Senegal under the shade of an Acacia tree in a dusty village and in the colonial grandeur of the presidential palace. It's one she'll repeat in Zambia and South Africa. 

What they're saying: "I can’t help but think about the unspeakable cruelty of those who engaged in the slave trade," Yellen said.

"In the United States, what is remarkable is how many African American men and women overcame the odds,” she said.

"With remembrance, I believe, can come progress and renewal," she said. 

The big picture: The overarching goal of Yellen's trip is to convince business leaders, presidents and everyday Africans that the United States is committed to partnering with Africans as equals. 

While China’s presence and influence in Africa cannot be avoided, Yellen doesn’t want to pressure any countries into an either-or decision. 

"This is not a competition with China," Yellen said in Dakar on Saturday, in response to a U.S. reporter’s question about Chinese and Russian leaders also hopscotching in the continent.

African governments “don't want to have to choose which countries they're going to become involved with,” she said. 

The intrigue: Yellen’s trip is the first of many conspicuous U.S. visits, including one scheduled by President Biden later this year. 

More trips — to different countries — will be announced in the coming months, including a visit by Vice President Kamala Harris and Wally Adeyemo, the Nigerian-born deputy Treasury secretary. 

Be smart: For Yellen’s tour, no town is too small. On Saturday afternoon, she traveled to a village off a dirt road — and off the electricity grid — to shovel concrete to stabilize new transmission lines, part of a project financed by the Export-Import Bank.

Speaking to approximately 200 villagers over the sound of bleating goats, Yellen promised that the U.S. was "a partner and friend for the long haul."

Yellen honors U.S.-Africa bond at historic site of slave trade

She condemned the horrors of human bondage while honoring the suffering and spirit of enslaved Africans.

Yellen receives an award diploma of Gorée's Great Pilgrim from Gorée Mayor Augustin Senghor. Photo: Seyllou/AFP via Getty Images

Janet Yellen

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

An Afghan soldier is still seeking asylum in the United States after being arrested at the U.S.-Mexico border last fall, the Associated Press reports.

The big picture: Lawmakers, military groups and attorneys are all working together to free him from a Texas detention center, citing his clean record and military service.

“It’s honestly just shameful that we’ve treated people that helped protect our country this way,” Jennifer Cervantes, one of Wasi Safi’s attorneys, told AP.

How we got here: Wasi Safi originally fled from Afghanistan to Brazil after the American withdrawal in August 2021. He feared potential acts of revenge from the Taliban, AP reports.

After making his way from Brazil to the U.S.-Mexico border, Wasi Safi was arrested near Eagle Pass, Texas, and is still being held in a detention center in Eden, Texas, AP reports. He is hoping for asylum in the United States.

During his dangerous journey to the United States, Wasi Safi reportedly held onto documents about his time as a soldier working with the American military.

“He tried every way possible to save these certificates in the hopes that once he ... presents his appropriate documents at the southern border ... he would receive a warm welcome and his service would be appreciated and recognized,” said his brother, Sami-ullah Safi, per AP.

Be smart: If he returns to Afghanistan, he might be killed by the Taliban, which has been responsible for hundreds of deaths of Afghan officials and security force officers, according to a United Nations report.

Zoom out: In December, a coalition of American veteran groups called on President Biden to intervene in Wasi Safi’s case as he faces potential deportation, CNN reports.

The groups said in a letter to President Biden that Wasi Safi “served faithfully alongside US Special Operations Forces” while in Afghanistan and “continued to support the Northern resistance against the Taliban” even after the United States left the country.

Earlier this month, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) demanded Wasi Safi’s release and for the Biden administration to pardon him for any crimes from crossing the border, the Texas Tribune reports.

“This is a mistake that needs to be corrected immediately,” she said.

Biden braces for potentially 14,000 migrants a day

Tens of thousands of migrants waiting on U.S. doorstep

Lawmakers seek to free Afghan soldier detained at U.S.-Mexico border

Wasi Safi originally fled from Afghanistan after the American withdrawal in August 2021.

Migrants wait for their turn to board a Border Patrol van t

Migrants wait for their turn to board a Border Patrol van in Eagle Pass, Texas. Photo: Veronica G. Cardenas/AFP via Getty Images

Afghanistan

Want to start a passionate discussion in Davos? Don't bring up supply chains, AI or crypto. Talk about the weather!

Driving the news: The WEF returned to January this year after the pandemic moved last year's event to May. The ice, wind and early sunsets had attendees wistfully remembering verdant alpine flower meadows and casual sidewalk strolls.

❄️ Watch out for the ice! Davos sidewalks aren't salted. The lack of shoveling discipline would get you fined in the U.S.

That's created what IBM vice chairman Gary Cohn calls "the anatomy of shoes." Wear snow boots and switch into street shoes at events? Wear boots all the time? Buy crampons to strap onto regular shoes? Throw caution to the wind and wear heels?

Most executives we hosted at Axios House events preferred summer Davos because of the pleasant weather and lighter packing loads (fewer shoes and no coats). 

⛷️ The winter partisans raved about the skiing and pointed out ... It's the Alps! It's supposed to be snowy and cold!

🏔️ And of course don't forget the scenery: "Before this week I was going to say summer Davos," said Qualcomm chief sustainability officer Angela Baker. 

"But we just walked down from where we're staying — it's probably a 30-minute walk, and it was so beautiful. Like a little Christmas village."  

1 fun thing: summer vs. winter Davos

Left: People walk from the congress center ahead of the WEF annual meeting in Davos on May 21, 2022. 

Left: People at the Davos forum in May 2022. Right: People at Davos this week. Photos:  Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Deep Dive - Davos 2023

Axios World

Aviation accounts for about 3% of global carbon emissions. But its share will likely grow as more people climb aboard unless the fuel source changes. 

Speaking to Axios in Davos, Val Miftakhov, CEO of ZeroAvia, predicted that will happen sooner than you think. His firm held its first successful test of a retrofitted 19-seat aircraft Thursday, making it the largest hydrogen-electric powered aircraft ever to take flight. 

Miftakhov hopes to start delivering planes with up to 20 seats by in 2025 and jets by 2029. He said American Airlines, United Airlines, British Airways and Alaska Airlines have already placed orders. 

It's an ambitious timeline that will require arduous regulatory approvals and new infrastructure at airports. "If we have all these beautiful engines with no fuel at the airports, nobody's gonna fly them," he told Axios.

According to Miftakhov, subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act will make ZeroAvia's hydrogen fuel-cell system cheaper for operators than traditional fuels on day one. 

Other firms are racing to design and test electric and ammonia-powered planes.

The other side: In a separate interview in Davos, Saudi Aramco CTO Ahmad Al-Khowaiter told Axios the world's largest oil company expects demand for jet fuel and/or synthetic fuels far into the future, though he believes battery power will be useful for short-range flights and hydrogen power for regional flights of up to 1,000 miles. 

Other experts share that skepticism because hydrogen fuel cells are less energy dense than jet fuel.

What to watch: Air travel isn’t the only sector on the verge of a transition. 

A billionaire with big investments in shipping told Axios the industry faces a crisis if the leading firms can’t come to a consensus on how to fuel the next generation of ships, because port infrastructure won’t be able to keep up.

Hydrogen plane startup looks to reshape aviation industry

ZeroAvia flew the largest ever hydrogen-electric aircraft this week.

Photo illustration of an airplane flanked by hydrogen atoms against a background of geometric shapes.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

For much of Davos, Ukraine was one crisis among many — discussed as much for its secondary effects on energy, food supplies and inflation as for the war itself.

Flashback: The war in Ukraine dominated the previous forum, which was held just three months after Russia began its invasion. Even then, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios that he worried "Ukraine fatigue" would set in and his country's plight would slip from the top of the global agenda.

The big picture: Although Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska had a prime speaking spot and the war featured in several speeches and panel discussions, the Davos crowd seemed more captivated by recession fears, AI and the energy transition.

Chef José Andrés, whose nonprofit World Central Kitchen has been working in Ukraine, warned global leaders at the meeting about the risk of waning attention to the war, as has happened with other crises. Andrés specifically pointed to Haiti, which has long been ravaged by political turmoil, gang violence and hunger, and now a new cholera outbreak.

 "We still see [Ukraine] as an emergency," Andrés told Axios.

Yes, but: Many of the biggest names attending the forum piled into a breakfast Thursday morning that turned into an emphatic call for global attention, action and investment.

In a live interview from Kyiv, Zelensky called on his Western partners to deliver Ukraine "the vaccine against Russian tyranny" — more sophisticated weapons, particularly longer-range missiles. He confirmed that Ukraine would seek to use those weapons to retake Crimea, not just the territories occupied since February.

Speaking at the breakfast, former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated definitively that Russian President Vladimir Putin won't use nuclear weapons and lamented that some allies still feared "provoking" him. In an apparent appeal to Germany, Johnson urged, "Give them the tanks."

When Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland used an ice hockey metaphor to describe military aid, Johnson quipped, "And tell Putin to get the puck out of Ukraine."

John Kerry, U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, contrasted the clarity and righteousness of Ukraine's fight with his own service in Vietnam, while finance heavyweights including Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink laid out plans for rebuilding.

Davos rallies around Ukraine — but war not sole focus this year

At Davos, the Russian invasion was discussed as much for its secondary effects as for the war itself.

Photo illustration of various Ukrainian people set against background shapes and colors similar to the Ukrainian flag

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Spencer Platt, Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Europeans lamenting the Inflation Reduction Act

COVID, what? There was little talk of the pandemic. 

What was in at Davos — and what was out

Talk of ChatGPT was in. Emphasis on bitcoin was out.

Illustration of two speech bubbles, one with a thumb pointing up, and one with a thumb pointing down, surrounded by abstract shapes.

Good afternoon, and welcome to our Deep Dive from the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. 

Axios AM Deep Dive: New global shocks

The globe's political and business leaders are facing a tangled web of risks.

Illustration collage of a microphone in front of a graphic Earth and shapes

Technology

Global economists are warning that once-rare economic shocks may become more frequent.

That was the worrisome undercurrent of conversations among attendees at this week's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland — where some of the world's richest and most powerful people returned in droves for the first full-fledged Davos since 2020. 

Conference organizers dubbed this era the “turbulent twenties.”

Why it matters: As the world continues to grapple with fallout from the pandemic shock and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the global economy suddenly is facing massive new disruptions.

Here are some of the top risks discussed this week:

1. The cheap money that defined the last decade could remain permanently in the rearview. 

Central banks plan to raise interest rates to steep levels — and hold them there for an unknown period — to contain still-high inflation, which has created a crushing cost-of-living crisis around the world.

Economists warned this week that once-rare economic shocks may become more frequent. That could keep price pressures persistent, forcing policymakers and lawmakers to respond. But how they will do so is unknown. 

2. How nations should approach the green energy transition — and whether some policies are a pathway to protectionism — is the subject of new, heated debates. 

President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act — praised by many CEOs in Davos for its incentives to speed the U.S. energy transition — is prompting concern among European allies who fear it'll drain investment that would otherwise have gone to them.

"At the edges, the Inflation Reduction Act ... is dangerous because it could slip into [protectionism]," Grant Shapps, the U.K. business secretary, said during a panel.

Hinting at the U.S. law, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said during a speech this week: “There is a need to be competitive with offers and incentives that are currently available outside the European Union."

3. Huge demographic shifts are among the reasons pandemic-era worker shortages are expected to be the new normal. 

That's why some CEOs at Davos say (for now) they plan to hang on to workers — even as they expect to slash costs elsewhere to adjust to a slowing global economy. That sets up what could be vastly different labor market outcomes around the world.

One outlier is the battered tech sector. Microsoft this week announced it would lay off 10,000 employees — the same day CEO Satya Nadella took the stage in Davos.

4.  Artificial intelligence is evolving much more quickly than many — including some in the Davos crowd — anticipated. 

Conversations at cocktail parties and nightcaps were peppered with speculation about how AI will shake up our lives.

Reality check: Given all these risks, the mood among executives — inside the main conference hall and along the icy pathways — was more upbeat and optimistic than you might expect.

Officials from the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank said the economic outlook was still bleak — though far less so than a few months ago.

What they're saying: "Davos is a contra-indicator for the world. When it's doom and gloomy, things actually turned out to be pretty good. When everybody's feeling optimistic and galavanting around the Alps, it's time to be concerned," says John Tuttle, vice chair of the New York Stock Exchange (and a 15-year attendee).

New global shocks

Illustration of a globe with business hands pointing downward, surronded by abstract shapes. 

Automation and AI

TEL AVIV — Over 100,000 people across Israel on Saturday rallied against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government amid growing anger over the ruling coalition's plans to weaken the Supreme Court and other democratic institutions. 

Why it matters: It's one of the biggest shows of public protest against an Israeli government in years. It also comes amid an unprecedented standoff between the government and the judiciary. 

Driving the news: In addition to anger over the judicial overhaul plan, protesters are outraged that Netanyahu still hasn't said how he will respond to this week's Supreme Court ruling revoking the appointment of Aryeh Deri as a senior minister. 

Deri has said he will not resign, leaving Netanyahu with a decision that risks either defying the judiciary — a move that would be unprecedented — or potentially upending his coalition.

The Supreme Court said the appointment of Deri, leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party and a key Netanyahu ally, was "extremely unreasonable." 

Deri, one of Israel’s most powerful politicians, has been convicted of criminal offenses twice, including last year, when he agreed to a plea bargain in which he admitted to tax offenses.

When Deri signed his plea deal, the prosecution and the judge made it clear that they understood he was leaving political life. But less than a year later, he ran for office again, claiming he never said his departure from public life would be forever.

State of play: Thousands on Saturday also rallied in Herzliya, a coastal city just north of Tel Aviv that rarely sees protests. 

At least 10,000 protested in the northern city of Haifa, and at least 3,000 rallied outside the president's residence in Jerusalem. Another anti-government demonstration took place in the southern city of Beersheba, a stronghold of Netanyahu's Likud party. Demonstrations were seen elsewhere across the country as well. 

Protesters in Tel Aviv carried Israeli flags and chanted "democracy" and "shame." 

Protesters rally against Netanyahu's government in Tel Aviv. 

Protesters rally against Netanyahu's government in Tel Aviv. Photo:  Amir Goldstein/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The big picture: Netanyahu's government, defined by the most right-wing and religious coalition in Israel's history, has been in power for less than a month. 

Its judicial overhaul plan, if implemented, would significantly limit the Supreme Court’s ability to review laws and strike them down.

The plan includes passing a law that would allow the governing coalition to override Supreme Court rulings by a simple majority of 61 votes in the 120-member Knesset.

It also seeks to end the Supreme Court's ability to revoke administrative decisions by the government on the grounds of "reasonability," significantly decreasing judicial oversight.

The plan envisions giving the government and the coalition in parliament absolute control over appointing judges.

Additionally, the plan includes changing the law so that ministers would be able to install political appointees as legal advisers in their ministries, something that is not under their authority today.

Between the lines: The judicial overhaul plan was presented as Netanyahu stands trial for fraud, breach of trust and bribery. He denies any wrongdoing.

Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon in a speech in Tel Aviv told protesters that "a country in which the prime minister appoints all the judges when he is on trial is a dictatorship."

What they're saying: Israeli opposition parties, grassroots organizations and others have come out strongly against the plan, with legal experts saying it will eliminate the ability of the judicial branch to do the checks and balances against the executive and legislative branches, which are both controlled by the governing coalition.

What to watch: Deri's aides said he is planning to attend the cabinet meeting on Sunday — a move that would be seen as defying the Supreme Court ruling. 

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates. 

Over 100,000 protest against Netanyahu's government in Israel

It's one of the biggest shows of public protest against an Israeli government in years.

Sunday's world stories