National

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Monday warned Sweden that it shouldn't expect Turkey's support for its NATO membership after far-right protesters burned a Quran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm over the weekend, AP reports.

Driving the news: “It is clear that those who allowed such vileness to take place in front of our embassy can no longer expect any charity from us regarding their NATO membership application,” Erdoğan said in his first comments since the Stram Kurs-led protests.

Erdoğan said Sweden must have calculated the consequences of permitting the demonstration, calling it an insult to everyone, especially to Muslims.

Of note: Erdogan criticized Sweden for allowing demonstrators to wave flags of various Kurdish groups, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.

The PKK has waged a decades-long insurgency against Turkey, AP writes.

Turkey, the U.S. and the EU consider the PKK a terrorist group, but its symbols aren’t banned in Sweden."

What they're saying: Erdoğan warned Sweden that if the country won't show respect to NATO-member Turkey or Muslims, “they won’t see any support from us on the NATO issue.”

"If you love members of terrorist organizations and enemies of Islam so much and protect them, then we advise you to seek their support for your countries' security," he said, per Reuters.

Tobias Billstrom, Swedish Foreign Minister, declined to comment on Erdoğan's remarks, until he understood "exactly what had been said," per Reuters.

The big picture: Sweden and Finland in May formally submitted their applications to join NATO, opening the door to the alliance's ninth expansion since 1949.

But Erdoğan soon after lodged an objection, claiming the Nordic countries were home to Kurdish "terrorist organizations." 

Turkey signed a joint memorandum in June saying that it would not oppose Sweden and Finland's bid to join NATO if the two countries confirmed the PKK as a terror group and committed to preventing its activities, AP writes. 

Go deeper: Turkey lifts objection to Sweden and Finland's NATO membership

Erdoğan says Turkey won't support Sweden's NATO bid after anti-Islam protests

If Sweden won't show respect to Turkey or Muslims, “they won’t see any support from us on the NATO issue.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses a press conference during the Meeting of the European Political Community on October 6, 2022 in Prague, Czech Repulic.  (Photo by Michal Cizek / AFP) (Photo by MICHAL CIZEK/AFP via Getty Images)

NATO

The man accused of killing 23 people at an El Paso Walmart in 2019 will plead guilty to federal hate crime charges, his attorneys said in court filings over the weekend. 

The big picture: Federal prosecutors announced last week that they would not seek the death penalty in the hate crimes case against Patrick Crusius. A judge on Monday set a new arraignment hearing for Feb. 8. 

Catch up quick: Crusius had initially pleaded not guilty to 90 counts under federal hate crime and firearm laws. 

But Crusius' attorneys on Saturday filed a motion seeking a new arraignment, saying he planned to change his plea to guilty. The federal trial is currently scheduled for next January. 

Police say Crusius confessed to authorities that he was targeting Mexicans when he drove 10 hours from Allen, Texas, to El Paso to carry out the shooting on Aug. 3, 2019.

He posted a racist screed online shortly before the shooting, according to prosecutors.

What to watch: Crusius' trial in state court on capital murder charges has not been set. State prosecutors in El Paso say they still intend to seek the death penalty. Crusius has pleaded not guilty to the state charges. 

Crusius' attorneys did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment.

The U.S. Attorney's Office declined to comment. 

El Paso Walmart shooting suspect to plead guilty to federal hate crimes

A new arraignment hearing for Patrick Crusius has been scheduled for Feb. 8.

A crowd of people hold candles at night during a vigil for the victims of a mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, in 2019. 

A candlelight vigil at a makeshift memorial for victims of the mass shooting in El Paso, Texas. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

El Paso

Latin America and Latinos

A former FBI special agent in charge of counterintelligence at the bureau's New York Field Office was charged and arrested over allegedly violating U.S. sanctions on a Russian oligarch, the Department of Justice announced Monday.

The big picture: The Justice Department alleged Charles McGonigal, who retired from the FBI in 2018, conspired with another defendant to provide services to Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska in violation of U.S. sanctions imposed on the oligarch in 2018.

McGonigal and the second defendant, Sergey Shestakov, a former Soviet and Russian diplomat who later interpreted Russian for U.S. courts and government offices, were charged with a total of five counts, including conspiring to violate and evade U.S. sanctions, conspiring to commit money laundering and committing money laundering.

The department said they were both arrested on Saturday and would go before a federal judge in a Manhattan court on Monday.

What they're saying: "They both previously worked with Deripaska to attempt to have his sanctions removed, and, as public servants, they should have known better," Damian Williams, U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, said in a statement.

"Russian oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska perform global malign influence on behalf of the Kremlin and are associated with acts of bribery, extortion, and violence," Michael Driscoll, assistant director in charge of the New York Field Office, said in a separate statement.

"After sanctions are imposed, they must be enforced equally against all U.S. citizens in order to be successful. There are no exceptions for anyone, including a former FBI official like Mr. McGonigal," Driscoll's statement continued.

The big picture: The Justice Department alleged that McGonigal and Shestakov in 2021 agreed to investigate one of Deripaska's rival Russian oligarchs in exchange for concealed payments from Deripaska.

The investigation was negotiated and agreed through electronic communications with an agent working on behalf of Deripaska, and the party used shell companies and a forged signature to create a contract that outlined the services and to receive the payments from Deripaska.

The department said both McGonigal and Shestakov were aware their actions violated U.S. sanctions because they had previously attempted to have the sanctions against Deripaska lifted.

Shestakov was also charged with making false statements in a recorded interview with FBI agents about his and McGonigal’s relationship with Deripaska’s agent, which carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison.

Worth noting: Deripaska was among the dozens of people connected to Russian President Vladimir Putin who received sanctions in 2018 for meddling in the U.S. elections.

Go deeper: Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska charged with violating sanctions

Former top FBI official charged with violating sanctions on Russian oligarch

The DOJ alleged the former special agent conspired to provide services to billionaire Oleg Deripaska.

The FBI seal at its headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)

Russia

Generate

Axios Generate

Nearly a year after Russia's invasion, the Ukraine crisis has permanently reshaped the global energy system and brought severe economic pain.

Why it matters: The worst-case scenarios haven't come to pass, thanks to a mix of EU policies, Russian President Vladimir Putin's miscalculations and pure luck. But the impact is apparent on every facet of the market, from natural gas to oil to low-carbon energy.

Driving the news: Europe's heavy dependence on Russian gas, which once provided 40% of EU supplies, has been rapidly severed. Now it only accounts for about 14.4% of EU supplies, per S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"Russia's days as an energy superpower are ebbing away," prominent energy historian and analyst Dan Yergin said.

How it works: European gas prices soared to record levels, but have since fallen back to below pre-war levels. That's partly thanks to more supplies from the U.S. and elsewhere, but it's also because of planning.

European nations have made moves to sever ties with Russian coal, oil and gas and diversify their supplies, conserve energy and fill gas storage facilities.

That effort has also prompted EU officials to accelerate and scale up efforts to deploy low-carbon tech like renewables and heat pumps. (There was also some short-term switching to carbon-intensive coal, thanks to the gas price increases and supply crunch.)

Luck was also a factor, with unusually mild weather that has cut heating demand.

"Widespread shortages, which were once legitimately feared, have not materialized," writes Financial Times energy editor David Sheppard in a column titled "Vladimir Putin is losing the energy war."

What they're saying: Analysts say Putin misjudged his ability to wield Russia's massive gas and oil exports to Europe as a geopolitical weapon.

A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report notes that Putin, in cutting gas shipments, was "hoping economic pain would break European and transatlantic resolve to support Ukraine."

Yergin tells Axios that Putin's "point of maximum leverage is past" now that Europe has diversified supplies and filled storage levels.

"He thought that Europe's dependence on Russian energy would be so great that the Europeans would, at the end of the day, deplore what happened [in Ukraine] but stand aside," he said in an interview.

Yes, but: The crisis brought severe economic pain to Europe, hammering consumers and energy-hungry industries, and beyond. For instance, CSIS notes that European fertilizer production, which requires large amounts of natural gas, has fallen 70%.

More broadly, it has helped push up energy prices everywhere, hurting economies worldwide due to higher industrial and agricultural input costs, boosting food prices that especially hurt poor nations.

Between the lines: When it comes to oil, Europe's recently imposed prohibitions on seaborne Russian crude and the G7-led "price cap" meant to curb Putin's revenues are leading to increased Russian barrels flowing to China and India.

On gas, "Europe’s shift from Russian gas to other supplies has dramatically and permanently changed global gas trade and energy markets," CSIS writes.

The reordering of the global energy trade is ultimately coming at Russia's expense, even as the war has spurred commodity price increases that battered economies worldwide over the last year.

The International Energy Agency, in a report last fall, significantly cut its projections of Russian gas and oil exports this decade because not all of the exports that used to go to Europe will find a new home. 

Also, while oil prices remain elevated, the initial price surge caused by the war has retreated. Brent crude briefly jumped to over $130 per barrel in early March when the scope of the conflict and response were less understood.

The intrigue: Europe's turn away from Putin has increased the geopolitical importance of U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas, which is helping to fill Europe's loss of Russian supplies. "Energy security in Europe — and globally — now rests on U.S. natural gas exports," CSIS notes.

What's next: IEA's latest oil market analysis this month calls Russia one of two "wildcards" that will "dominate" the global oil market in 2023.

The other is China, where COVID restrictions — or the lack of them — affect energy markets because they're the largest oil importer in the world.

Ukraine war upended energy markets forever

It has permanently reshaped the global energy system, even though the worst-case scenarios haven't come to pass.

Illustration of a tank with an erratic line chart shooting out.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

The continued delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine will provoke retaliation from Russia and will "lead to a global catastrophe," a Russian parliamentary leader warned Sunday.

Why it matters: The comments come amid debate among Germany, the U.S. and its allies as to whether to send tanks to Ukraine in accordance with requests from Kyiv.

Ukraine has a particular desire for German Leopard 2 tanks — which could also be provided by other NATO allies — and would replenish Ukraine's fleet of tanks, much of which has been worn out and destroyed over the nearly yearlong conflict, per The New York Times. 

However, Germany has been reluctant to make the first move over fears of escalation. 

Germany has indicated that it wants the U.S. to make the first move by sending its own Abrams tanks, which U.S. officials have resisted due to the logistics of maintaining them, Reuters reported.

What they're saying: Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, wrote in a Telegram post Sunday that if the U.S. and NATO send Ukraine weapons that could be used "to strike civilian cities and attempt to seize our territories," then Russia would respond with "retaliatory measures using more powerful weapons."

"With their decisions, Washington and Brussels are leading the world to a terrible war: to a completely different military action than today, when strikes are carried out exclusively on the military and critical infrastructure used by the Kyiv regime," Volodin said.

"Given the technological superiority of Russian weapons, foreign politicians making such decisions need to understand that this could end in a global tragedy that will destroy their countries," he added.

"Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable. Because these states did not face a situation where there was a threat to the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of the country."

State of play: Some members of Congress have advocated for the U.S. to provide the Abrams tanks. 

In light of a possible springtime offensive by Russia, the U.S. should act quickly to provide Ukraine with the tanks they need, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) told ABC's "This Week" Sunday.

"If it requires our sending some Abrams tanks in order to unlock getting the Leopard tanks from Germany, from Poland, from other allies, I would support that," Coons said.

"I respect that our military leaders think the Abrams is too sophisticated, too expensive a platform to be as useful as the Leopards, but we need to continue to work with our close allies and move forward in lock step," Coons added.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the new chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told the same program Sunday that the U.S. should provide their tanks in order to spur other allies to do the same.

“Even saying we’re going to put Abrams tanks in, I think would be enough for Germany to unleash,” McCaul said.

Russian official says new weapons for Ukraine will result in "global catastrophe"

"With their decisions, Washington and Brussels are leading the world to a terrible war."

Vyacheslav Volodin speaks during the first plenary session of the Duma this year on Jan. 17. Photo: Getty Images

Ukraine

Chris Hipkins, New Zealand's education minister, on Sunday was confirmed as New Zealand’s next prime minister, replacing Jacinda Ardern after she announced her resignation earlier last week.

Driving the news: Hipkins, who had emerged as the only potential candidate from the country’s ruling Labor Party, chose Carmel Sepuloni as his deputy, marking the first time a person with Pacific Island heritage has risen to that rank, AP reports.

Hipkins will be officially sworn in to his new role on Wednesday. 

He will hold the position until the party's term ends. The country’s next general election is scheduled for Oct. 14.

Context: Hipkins, considered a lifelong politician, joined the Parliament in 2008 and rose in notability during the pandemic as he served in Ardern’s cabinet, CNN reports.

While serving as education minister, he also works as the minister for police and public service, and is New Zealand’s Leader of the House.

Like Hipkins, Sepuloni first became a lawmaker 15 years ago and has most recently taken on the employment and social development portfolios in the country, per AP.

“I want to acknowledge the significance of this for our Pacific community,” Sepuloni said. “I am proudly Samoan, Tongan and New Zealand European, and represent generations of New Zealanders with mixed heritage.”

How we got here: Ardern announced Jan. 19 that she would step down as New Zealand’s leader, saying she no longer has "that bit extra in the tank to do the job justice. It’s that simple.”

"I hope I leave New Zealanders with a belief that you can be kind but strong, empathetic but decisive, optimistic but focused," she said. "And that you can be your own kind of leader — one who knows when it's time to go."

Ardern's leadership of New Zealand put her on the map as a major global figure. She guided the country through a mass shooting, and helped pass major gun control measures in its aftermath. She was praised for her handling of both that situation and guiding the country through the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Go deeper: Ardern's exit after "unprecedented" threats shows toll of burnout for women leaders

Chris Hipkins to replace Ardern as New Zealand's prime minister

He chooses Carmel Sepuloni as his deputy, marking the first time a person with Pacific Island heritage rises to that rank.

Chris Hipkins, New Zealand's incoming prime minister, during a news conference at the executive wing of the Parliamentary complex in Wellington, New Zealand, on Sunday, Jan. 23. Photo: Mark Coote/Bloomberg via Getty Images

New Zealand

Tel Aviv

Axios from Tel Aviv

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Shas party leader Aryeh Deri on Sunday — four days after the Supreme Court revoked the appointment of his close political ally as minister of interior and health.

Why it matters: It's a major political setback for Netanyahu and his government, which came to power less than a month ago. Deri was one of the most experienced politicians in Netanyahu's government and one of the only ministers the prime minister truly trusted.

It's also a political blow to Deri and the Shas party. It will be very hard to find a legislative solution to bypass the Supreme Court ruling and allow Deri to become a minister again.

Driving the news: The Supreme Court had ruled Deri's appointment was "highly unreasonable" due to the Shas party leader's past criminal convictions.

During a Cabinet meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu read a letter he gave Deri announcing he is firing him.

Netanyahu wrote that the Supreme Court decision "disregarded the will of the people" in the last election.

He stressed he will "seek every legal path" that will allow Deri to continue contributing and return to government.

What they're saying: Deri said in the Cabinet meeting that once the ruling was made, he didn't contemplate at any point not adhering to it.

He denied that he had made a commitment in his plea bargain last year to leave political life as the Supreme Court said in its ruling.

"I am committed to 400,000 Shas voters. No court ruling will stop me from representing and serving them. I will continue leading Shas party," Deri said.

He added that he will help the government to implement its controversial judicial overhaul plan, which would weaken the Supreme Court and other democratic institutions. The plan has faced growing opposition from the Israeli public, with more than 100,000 people across Israel joining protests against the government on Saturday night. 

Go deeper: Netanyahu judicial overhaul will be "fatal blow" to Israel's democracy, top judge says

Netanyahu sacks key ally to comply Israeli Supreme Court ruling

It's a major political setback for Netanyahu and his government, which came to power less than a month ago.

Aryeh Deri and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu

Israeli Interior Minister Aryeh Deri and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talk at a Cabinet meeting on Jan. 8. Photo: Ronen Zvulum/AFP via Getty Images

Monday's world stories