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National

It appears that the IRS has supplanted federal worker paychecks as the first true pain point in the Trump administration's partial government shutdown — IRS refunds will now be paid during the shutdown, a reversal from previous statements, the White House's Office of Management and Budget told reporters today.

Behind the scenes: Until recently, Trump had been saying privately that he doesn’t think the American people care about shutdowns and that a shutdown wouldn't hurt him politically, a source familiar with the situation told Axios.

But Trump's opinion can soon change with harmful effects kicking in imminently — with paychecks, federal housing and food for poor people all potentially threatened. 

Pence said Monday he’d never heard Trump say anything like that, and he said that Trump was alert to the needs of the roughly 800,000 federal workers affected by the shutdown. 

A White House official told me earlier today that they are most worried about food stamps being cut off and believe the next 72 hours are crucial to put political pressure on Democrats, given real effects of the shutdown are looming.

"Final decisions were still being worked out, including how many people would be brought back to work at the IRS and when the tax filing season will begin," according to the Washington Post.

Acting OMB director Russell Vought said the administration wants the shutdown to be as "painless as possible consistent with the law."

VP Mike Pence: "We’re going to continue to take steps like that to mitigate the impact."

Between the lines: "The IRS plans for this shutdown and for one that could have occurred during last year’s tax-filing season both listed 'issuing refunds' among the activities that can’t be performed during a shutdown," the WSJ's Richard Rubin and Peter Nicholas report.

"Administration lawyers may have been using a different theory—that the power to issue refunds was implied by the permanent appropriations for the refunds themselves. That is the exception the government uses to pay Social Security benefits."

"It is hard to see the legal justification for reversing past practice and paying refunds," said Sam Berger, a former senior OMB official under President Barack Obama.

P.S. Trump will address the nation tomorrow at 9 pm ET regarding the ongoing partial government shutdown. Some networks haven't decided whether to air the speech. They declined to air an Obama immigration speech in 2014. Go deeper.

The fear of a painful shutdown is kicking in

As the IRS announces it will pay tax refunds despite shutdown

Politics

Government shutdown

Axios AI+

Samsung is using CES to announce its entry into the robotics business and show off several prototypes, including an exoskeleton that augments human muscles as well as more modest home devices.

Why it matters: The Korean electronics giant sees robots as a natural evolution for both its appliance and mobile businesses.

In an interview, Samsung consumer electronics CEO HS Kim told Axios that the company has built the platform to power its robots program but actual products will take more time.

A home robot, Kim said, could easily morph into all manner of appliances, from vacuum to lawnmower to kitchen assistant, depending on what was attached. "You can imagine any kind of product as long as you have a very solid platform."

The exoskeleton is one of several types of robots, Kim said, that could help the elderly or others with limited mobility. Home robots could help with other tasks, he said, such as taking pills. 

Samsung showed off one such prototype, which it dubbed Samsung Bot Care that could also check blood pressure and heart rate as well as offer music therapy, remote monitoring and fall detection.

Samsung is getting into robots

The company is showing several prototypes at CES, including an exoskeleton and a home robot.

Technology

Samsung

Business

Big Tech

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

At 16 years old, sex trafficking victim Cyntoia Denise Brown was sentenced to life in prison without parole for killing a man who purchased her for sex. On Monday, at 30, she was granted clemency by the governor of Tennessee. 

The big picture: The U.S. is the only nation in the world where minors can be sentenced to prison for life without parole, according to the Sentencing Project. 

By the numbers: 21 states and the District of Columbia have banned the practice, and Supreme Court rulings have made it much harder for juveniles to receive life sentences, but there are still more than 2,000 people facing life in prison for a crime they committed when they were under 18.

Background: Cyntoia was convicted of robbing and murdering Johnny Mitchell Allen, who had solicited her for sex, according to CNN. While prosecutors claimed she had killed the man in order to rob him, Cyntoia said that she was afraid for her life and took the money to give to her pimp out of fear he would be angry if she did not return with money. 

Since her conviction, juvenile sentencing laws in Tennessee have changed, according to CNN. And a documentary inspired by Cyntoia's trial was influential in changing the state's laws dealing with victims of sex trafficking.

"Our courts today would view her as a child sex slave," WZTV anchor Stacy Case said. "She would be viewed as a victim."

Over the past year or so, several big-name celebrities, including Amy Schumer, Kim Kardashian West, Ashley Judd and Rihanna have brought attention to Cyntoia's story and spoken in her defense. 

Be smart: The majority of kids sentenced to life without parole have difficult, traumatic and complicated histories.

79% of them experienced regular violence in their homes, according to the Sentencing Project.

Fewer than half were attending school when they committed the crime. 

32% grew up in public housing, and 40% had been enrolled in special education classes.

80% of the girls serving life sentences said they had been physically abused in their past, and 77% had histories of sexual abuse. 

Go deeper: How the U.S. imprisons the poor 

How American kids get sentenced to life in prison

And how a teenaged victim of sex trafficking was given a life sentence without parole.

Criminal justice

The Copernicus Climate Service (C3S), an EU-funded program, has concluded that 2018 was Earth's 4th-warmest year on record — with the past 4 years serving as the hottest years the planet has seen since instrument records began in 1880 (and likely well before that). 

The big picture: With U.S. science agencies hobbled by the partial government shutdown, the new findings are the first to provide a global perspective on 2018's temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions. While they're in line with projections, they still underscore how severe the climate change problem is becoming. 

The details: Last year had a global average surface temperature that was 0.2°C, or 0.36°F, colder than 2016, which was the warmest year in Copernicus' dataset, but more than 0.4°C, or 0.72°F, above the 1981-2010 average. Scientists at C3S also found:

The average temperature of the last 5 years was 1.1°C, or 1.98°F, higher than the pre-industrial average. 

This is significant since temperatures are edging closer to the 1.5°C aspirational warming target contained in the Paris climate agreement, which many low-lying island nations see as key to their survival. 

Using satellite measurements, the climate service reported that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by about 2.5 parts per million per year in 2018 — and are at a record high. Previous studies have found that CO2 levels are higher now than they have been in more than 800,000 years.

According to C3S, the Arctic saw the most unusual warmth in 2018, particularly north of the Bering Strait between U.S. and Russia. Europe, the Middle East, and western North America were warmer-than-average for the year, while parts of the globe, including central Asia, had a cooler-than-average year. 

But, but, but: Unlike NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S., C3S uses a different mathematical model to combine millions of land, ocean, airborne and satellite observations. Based at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather in England, C3S has the advantage of providing temperature measurements in areas that are data sparse, such as the Arctic and over the oceans.

The C3S data is especially useful for comparing other groups' long-term surface data that also track global warming, such as NASA, NOAA and the Hadley Center in the U.K. 

The bottom line: No matter which data you look at, the story is the same: The planet is warming rapidly, while the amount of greenhouse gases in the air continues to increase, overwhelmingly due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels for energy.

Go deeper: Key global warming target slipping out of reach, UN scientists warn

2018 was Earth's fourth-warmest year, EU scientists find

2018 was the fourth-warmest, according to EU scientists.

2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record, with unusual warmth blanketing the Arctic, Europe, and much of the rest of the globe.

Global average surface temperatures in 2018 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Graphic via the Copernicus Climate Service

Science

Climate change

Energy

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

Generate

Axios Generate

The Supreme Court on Monday rejected ExxonMobil's bid to review the Massachusetts attorney general's demand for internal documents about what the company knew about climate change over the course of decades.

Why it matters: The order, issued without comment, enables Attorney General Maura Healey to continue probing whether the oil giant misled investors and consumers about global warming and its effects on Exxon's business.

The big picture: The case is part of a broader legal effort by some Democratic state officials and investigative journalists to explore the oil industry's internal consideration of climate change. 

New York's AG sued the company in October, alleging Exxon defrauded shareholders by downplaying the expected risk of future climate change policies on its business and assets.

What they're saying: "Today’s #SCOTUS victory clears the way for our office to investigate Exxon’s conduct toward consumers and investors. The public deserves answers from this company about what it knew about the impacts of burning fossil fuels, and when," Healey tweeted.

The other side: Exxon did not comment Monday on the Supreme Court's decision.

In the now-rejected petition, Exxon said the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court's ruling last April that upheld the probe was a "breathtaking assertion of personal jurisdiction over a nonresident defendant."

The company has called the New York lawsuit "baseless allegations" based on "closed-door lobbying by special interests" and "political opportunism."

Go deeper: New York makes its move against Exxon

Supreme Court sides against Exxon in climate case

Massachusetts wants to know what the oil giant knew about climate change.

President Trump announced that he will address the nation on Tuesday at 9 pm ET regarding the ongoing partial government shutdown before a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border on Thursday that White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said will see him "meet with those on the frontlines of the national security and humanitarian crisis."

Background: Trump said he would focus on "the Humanitarian and National Security crisis on our Southern Border" in his prime-time speech, which was first reported by the New York Times. Trump's visit to the border will come on the 20th day of the shutdown, should it continue, which is in a stalemate over his demand that congressional Democrats vote to fund a wall — now a steel barrier — along the border.

Go deeper: The force that could end the shutdown

Trump to address nation on shutdown, visit border this week

Sarah Sanders said he plans to "to meet with those on the frontlines."

Trump border wall

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

President Trump tweeted Monday that the U.S. is set to withdraw its military forces from Syria "at a proper pace," while criticizing what he branded as a "knowingly ... very inaccurate" New York Times story about the timeline for a withdrawal.

"The Failing New York Times has knowingly written a very inaccurate story on my intentions on Syria. No different from my original statements, we will be leaving at a proper pace while at the same time continuing to fight ISIS and doing all else that is prudent and necessary!"

Reality check: The Times story is based on public comments that Trump's national security adviser John Bolton made during a weekend visit to Israel. Bolton stated that the U.S. could not withdraw from Syria without assurances from Turkey that it would not attack America's Kurdish allies there, suggesting a full withdrawal could ultimately take months or years. Trump originally said last month that all U.S. forces would leave Syria within 30 days — prompting worries from international partners and political allies — before agreeing to a slower timetable.

Trump says U.S. will leave Syria "at a proper pace"

He originally wanted to leave within 30 days, but the likely timetable seems much longer.

World

Syria

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Pro Rata

Axios Pro Rata

Apollo Global Management is positioning itself to dominate the early 2019 private equity market, with others watching closely to see if it can get big deals over the finish line.

The big picture: It's prepping an offer to buy GE's aircraft leasing business, which could be valued at upwards of $40 billion, per Reuters. It remains in talks to buy aluminum parts giant Arconic for around $11 billion, following that company's bitter battle with activist investor Elliott, which is now working with Apollo.

Yes, but: Apollo's big hurdle could be debt.

The Arconic deal was, by all accounts, supposed to be announced last month. Part of the holdup relates to potential liabilities from the fire at London's Grenfell Tower, but the NY Post's Josh Kosman reports that Apollo's real problem is finding enough lenders during what has become a pretty severe credit crunch in the high-yield markets, where new corporate issuance fell to barely a trickle in November and December.

"The leveraged loan market is experiencing similar outflows to the S&P 500 index, which has plunged 15 percent since its Sept. 21 apex. Less leverage for buyouts means fewer public companies will be taken private, and those that do will attract lower prices."

The bottom line: So goes Apollo, so may go the rest of private equity in the first half of 2019. Not only for take-privates, but also secondary buyouts in which companies are sold from one private equity firm to another. And it all comes against a backdrop of growing macro concern, led by ex-Fed chair Janet Yellen, that the past few years has seen too sharp an increase of leveraged lending with "a significant weakening of underwriting standards."

Go deeper: What an economic slowdown could mean for private markets

Axios

Monday's top stories

The fear of a painful shutdown is kicking in

Samsung is getting into robots

How American kids get sentenced to life in prison

2018 was Earth's fourth-warmest year, EU scientists find

Supreme Court sides against Exxon in climate case

Trump to address nation on shutdown, visit border this week

Trump says U.S. will leave Syria "at a proper pace"

Apollo looks to lead private equity in 2019

Revenge of the savers

The trends shaping health care in 2019

2019's biggest geopolitical risk

Big Tech's Trump problem

A truly smart home needs to be more than just connected

The national championship: Prepare yourself for points

9 energy and climate issues to watch in 2019