Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan were expected to begin normalizing monetary policy in 2019 — reintroducing interest rates that are not at or below zero. However, it looks like both will fail and may even go in reverse, potentially adding to their stimulus programs that have so far totaled more than $2.5 trillion and $3.5 trillion, respectively.
The big picture: With China announcing new stimulus measures and the Federal Reserve on pause, the quantitative tightening theme that was supposed to reshape markets in 2019 – draining liquidity from the global financial system, shaking stock prices and popping asset bubbles – may already have come and gone.
The Trump administration has asked Israel to publicly support the U.S. push to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and recognize the leader of the opposition, Juan Guaido, as the interim president, Israeli officials told me.
Why it matters: Israel has no diplomatic relations with Venezuela. Since Guaido declared himself president and received recognition from the U.S. earlier this week, Israel has kept silent and declined to issue any public statements. Israeli officials told me there are concerns in Jerusalem that if Israel publicly supports the opposition, the Maduro regime would harm the 6000 members of the Jewish community in Venezuela.
DAVOS, Switzerland — For two years, the global elite has fumbled for ways to defend the 7-decade-old structure of trade and diplomacy from punishing attacks. This week, they declared the system all but dead.
The main thing now, leading thinkers said, is to ensure that what replaces the system in the coming years prevents a great-power war — as the existing one has — and delivers more for millions left behind by the current economy.
The most important global issues are discussed at the World Economic Forum in Davos — but most people don’t get a chance to attend. Here is a chance to step into the goings-on.
Quick take: The world order is shifting. From the strong Chinese presence to CEOs grappling with public anger, attendees said this year’s conference felt different.
DAVOS, Switzerland — By the end of the week-long annual gathering of the world's elite here, the procession of leaders had given an inkling of the world order to come.
The big picture: "We may have to get used to a more modest definition of 'liberal world order,'" Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze told Axios. That likely means removing liberal politics as a requirement to join the club.
Roger Stone, the longtime Trump adviser indicted Friday in the Mueller investigation, texted me before going to bed: "I will prevail."
Stone had hitthe cable news circuit after being released on bond from a Florida courthouse, telling Fox News' Tucker Carlson: "No matter how much pressure they put on me, no matter what they say, I will not bear false witness against Donald Trump. I will not do what Michael Cohen has done and make up lies to ease the pressure on myself."
Following the indictment of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone on Friday, House Intelligence chairman Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said in a statement that the committee's "first order of business will be to release all remaining transcripts to the Special Counsel’s Office."
The big picture: Schiff notes that Stone is now the second witness to be indicted or plead guilty to lying before the House panel, joining President Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen — who admitted to lying about the extent of negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. The special counsel has signaled that he considers lying and obstruction of justice serious offenses, with Stone, Cohen, Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort among those now facing consequences for their alleged false statements.
There has been a lot of speculation that a big political meeting would happen this week in China, but rather than the Fourth Plenum it could be a meeting of provincial and ministerial-level officials similar to the one held the summer of 2017 before the 18th Party Congress.
What's happening: Sure enough, Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a seminar of provincial and ministerial-level officials on “preventing and defusing major risks to ensure sustained and healthy economic development and social stability.”
The Trump administration on Thursday took its first significant move against 2 of Iran’s non-Arab Shiite militias in Syria with two different executive orders — one related to human rights and the other to terrorism. Both groups, the Fatemiyoun and Zeynabiyoun, support Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force (IRGC-QF), which was sanctioned over a decade ago but remains active across the Middle East.
Why it matters: The U.S. Congress has attemptedseveral times to get the administration to designate Iran-backed militias, whether in Iraq or Syria, as terrorists, given their ties to the IRGC-QF. The administration’s voluntary designation of the Fatemiyoun and Zeynabiyoun therefore represents a paradigm shift, adding Iran’s agents of influence to the U.S. Treasury's financial blacklist and subjecting them to sanctions.
Special counsel Robert Mueller's team told a federal judge Friday that Paul Manafort, President Trump's former campaign manager, should not receive credit for cooperating in the Russia investigation because he told “multiple discernible lies” and breached his plea deal, NBC News reports.
The big picture: Manafort is due to be sentenced next month, but Judge Amy Berman said she could not proceed until the dispute over his alleged lies is resolved. A poorly redacted document filed by Manafort's attorneys this month shows that he allegedly lied— among other things — about sharing 2016 polling data with suspected Russian intelligence operative Konstantin Kilimnik. Manafort appeared in court at the same time as another Trump associate, Roger Stone, who was indicted by the Mueller investigation early Friday morning.
DAVOS, Switzerland — The question of whether China is a partner or a predator hung over the World Economic Forum this year.
One Davos veteran told Axios the Chinese participants were the "rockstars" of this year's forum. "Every panel has one or two Chinese people, speaking perfect English. They used to linger in the back. Now they are setting the agenda," she said.
DAVOS, Switzerland — At this bastion of multilateralism, a procession of world leaders has acknowledged existential threats to the global order.
Between the lines: Adam Tooze, a professor of history at Columbia University, told Axios: "We may have to get used to a more modest definition of liberal world order." That likely means removing liberal politics from the equation and being less exclusive about who's invited to the club.
