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Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has likened the recent wave of protests to a “vast, very dangerous and planned conspiracy,” but, in fact, the demonstrations reflect growing shifts among the people of Iran and in neighboring countries.

The big picture: Khamenei and the rest of the regime have long pointed a finger abroad when under strain at home. But they're now facing greater pressure and responding with firmer tactics, including the use of lethal force under the cover of an internet blackout.

Context: After a Nov. 15 decision by authorities to cut petroleum subsidies and raise gas prices, protestors across 100 cities in Iran took to the streets with grievances about the direction the country is heading.

Meanwhile, Iran has been under continued strain from the U.S. maximum pressure campaign and faced stronger pushback against its regional interference. 

Between the lines: While protests are a familiar phenomenon in Iran, the recent wave underscores new trends.

Widespread protests have become much more common. While previously separated by roughly a decade (1999, 2009, 2017–18, 2019), they are now happening mere months apart.

Iranian authorities are more cognizant of the role the internet plays in facilitating communication among protestors and relaying messages and images outside the country. The regime is therefore likely to sustain its shift from filtering to blacking out the internet during future protests.

Protestors are increasingly taking up former political taboos, such as praising the former monarchy and royal family, while also targeting symbols of the regime’s ideology and leadership.

Iranian authorities have shown less compunction about violent crackdowns, leaving more than 208 protestors dead, according to the latest figures from Amnesty International. Protestors have grown more riotous as well, with pro-government institutions vandalized and a number of fatalities among security forces.

What to watch: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has promised that more sanctions will follow Washington’s recent sanctioning of Iran’s minister of information for his role in the internet outage.

By gradually restoring the internet, the regime has expressed confidence that its campaign of intimidation, mass arrests and promised revenge will deter future demonstrations.

If current trends hold, however, the Iranian authorities could soon find themselves falling back on those measures.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Iranian government meets growing protests with harsher crackdown

The regime has deployed lethal force under the cover of internet blackouts.

protestors surround a burning motorcycle in a street intersection

Protesters in Isfahan, Iran, on Nov. 16, 2019. Photo: AFP via Getty Images

World

Iran

Expert Voices

Iranian Supreme Leader <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Ali Khamenei" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/thirty-years-into-rule-khamenei-continues-centralizing-power-in-iran-a681518c-bdf1-44b5-a506-62a809dafca8.html" data-vars-content-id="39ffbedc-f9c9-49d9-bb9c-d36349fba66f" data-vars-headline="Iranian government meets growing protests with harsher crackdown" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/thirty-years-into-rule-khamenei-continues-centralizing-power-in-iran-a681518c-bdf1-44b5-a506-62a809dafca8.html" target="_self">Ali Khamenei</a> has <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="likened" data-vars-click-url="https://www.farsnews.com/news/13980906000451/%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B7%D8%A6%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%DA%A9%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%B4%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%B8%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%B9%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%82-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%85" data-vars-content-id="39ffbedc-f9c9-49d9-bb9c-d36349fba66f" data-vars-headline="Iranian government meets growing protests with harsher crackdown" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.farsnews.com/news/13980906000451/%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B7%D8%A6%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%DA%A9%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%B4%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%B8%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%B9%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%82-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%85" target="_blank">likened</a> the recent wave of protests to a “vast, very dangerous and planned conspiracy,” but, in fact, the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="demonstrations" data-vars-click-url="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50562584" data-vars-content-id="39ffbedc-f9c9-49d9-bb9c-d36349fba66f" data-vars-headline="Iranian government meets growing protests with harsher crackdown" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50562584" target="_blank">demonstrations</a> reflect growing shifts among the people of Iran and in neighboring countries.The big picture: Khamenei and the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="rest of the regime" data-vars-click-url="https://www.foxnews.com/world/iranian-cammander-us-allies-we-will-destroy-you" data-vars-content-id="39ffbedc-f9c9-49d9-bb9c-d36349fba66f" data-vars-headline="Iranian government meets growing protests with harsher crackdown" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.foxnews.com/world/iranian-cammander-us-allies-we-will-destroy-you" target="_blank">rest of the regime</a> have long pointed a finger abroad when under strain at home. But they&#x27;re now facing greater pressure and responding with firmer tactics, including the use of lethal force under the cover of an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="internet blackout" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cnet.com/news/irans-internet-has-been-shut-down-for-days-amid-protests/" data-vars-content-id="39ffbedc-f9c9-49d9-bb9c-d36349fba66f" data-vars-headline="Iranian government meets growing protests with harsher crackdown" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cnet.com/news/irans-internet-has-been-shut-down-for-days-amid-protests/" target="_blank">internet blackout</a>.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is calling for “stability” and an “end” to the current fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan — but should the conflict between its northern neighbors escalate, Tehran may well deepen its involvement.

What to watch: Iran's recent history — specifically the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) — provides a model of how that escalation might happen.

The big picture: The foreign-supplied arsenals boasted by both Armenia and Azerbaijan carry the risk of missile salvos targeting one another’s population centers, as seen in the "War of the Cities" between Iran and Iraq.

Another similarity between the two conflicts is the role of proxy forces.

Iran created Lebanese Hezbollah in 1982, the same year it invaded Iraq. During the war, Tehran relied on the Badr Organization, a group of Iraqi Shiite exiles to fight Saddam Hussein’s army.

Now, there are reportedly Syrian jihadists fighting on Azerbaijan’s side, with support from Turkey, a development Iran’s Rouhani called “unacceptable.”

The Iran-Iraq War also demonstrates that new alliances can come together, and multiple conflicts can converge, over the course of a larger war. 

For example, Iran unsuccessfully took on the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf during its war with Iraq.

Where things stand: Turkey is already playing an active role in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and another neighbor, Russia, clearly has interests to protect as well.

What to watch: Less attention is being played to the role of a third neighbor, Iran, which previously backed Christian Armenia rather than Shiite Azerbaijan when the two went to war in the 1990s, a decision best explained by geopolitics.

Tehran officially supports Azerbaijan's territorial integrity (Nagorno-Karabakh is inside Azerbaijan's borders), but has been accused of favoring Armenia and providing supplies to the Armenian-aligned government in Nagorno-Karabakh prior to the recent flare-up (Iran denies that).

There have been at least two indications that Iran may take a larger role now: ethnic Azeri protests in Iran in favor of Azerbaijan, and warnings by Iranian security officials that a spillover of shelling into Iranian territory won't be tolerated.

Iran may also seize any opportunities to export weapons and offset adversaries like Israel, which is a leading arms exporter to Azerbaijan.

The bottom line: If the peaceful settlement Rouhani and others are calling for arrives soon, those calculations won't come into play. If not, we could see shadows of another war that began four decades ago.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies 

Will Iran’s past become prologue for Nagorno-Karabakh?

Iran's northern neighbors are fighting a war Tehran may find familiar.

Rouhani speaks on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Photo: Iranian Presidency Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="calling" data-vars-click-url="https://news.yahoo.com/irans-rouhani-slams-sending-fighters-091906994.html" data-vars-content-id="6db5db60-6faf-4906-b4ba-2068b361f39e" data-vars-headline="Will Iran’s past become prologue for Nagorno-Karabakh?" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://news.yahoo.com/irans-rouhani-slams-sending-fighters-091906994.html" target="_blank">calling</a> for “stability” and an “end” to the current fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan — but should the conflict between its northern neighbors escalate, Tehran may well deepen its involvement.What to watch: Iran&#x27;s recent history — specifically the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Iran-Iraq War" data-vars-click-url="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-long-shadow-the-iran-iraq-war-11535" data-vars-content-id="6db5db60-6faf-4906-b4ba-2068b361f39e" data-vars-headline="Will Iran’s past become prologue for Nagorno-Karabakh?" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-long-shadow-the-iran-iraq-war-11535" target="_blank">Iran-Iraq War</a> (1980-1988) — provides a model of how that escalation might happen.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani lashed out at world leaders in a strident address from the floor of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Wednesday, underscoring the Islamic Republic's increasing isolation on the international stage.

The big picture: Since May 2019, the world has seen Iran violate nuclear commitments and attack oil installations and commercial shipping critical to the international economy. France, Germany, and the U.K. have joined Washington in pointing a finger at Iran after the recent strikes on Saudi oil facilities, a sign that the trans-Atlantic community may be uniting against Tehran.

Driving the news: “Iran’s patience has limits,” Rouhani threatened in his UNGA speech.

Rouhani likened the U.S. to a bully, called Europe powerless and claimed the Arab states of the Persian Gulf are traitors to their geography.

He drew on an old Arabic maxim — “first the neighbor, then the house” — to suggest that Iran's neighbors would ultimately be abandoned by the U.S. and should not seek external guarantees of security.

Between the lines: Previously dubbed the “diplomatic sheikh,” Rouhani is now taking a tougher line, downplaying the value of even a photo op with President Trump.

For the time being, Rouhani is sticking to the script of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who sets the country's foreign and security policy and appears to have ruled out U.S. negotiations without a return to the nuclear deal (read: sanctions relief).

Flashback: What made possible Rouhani’s historic phone call with President Barack Obama on the sidelines of UNGA in 2013 was Khamenei’s support for limited diplomacy under the guise of Iran showing “heroic flexibility.”

But Khamenei is currently offering no such blessing to diplomacy. Iran may therefore be unable to deliver on its reported willingness to make minor changes to the nuclear deal or accept a bigger deal for more money.

The bottom line: Rather than set the conditions for talks, Rouhani’s UNGA address locked in Iran’s position that “the only way [forward] is reliance on dignity, pride and national authority.” More Iranian escalation, whether in the region or on the nuclear domain, should be expected.

Rouhani's UN address reflects Iran's growing intransigence

“Iran’s patience has limits,” he threatened.

Hassan Rouhani speaking to the United Nations General Assembly from a lectern

Rouhani addressing the 2019 UN General Assembly. Photo: Valery Sharifulin/TASS via Getty Images

Hassan Rouhani

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani lashed out at world leaders in a strident address from the floor of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Wednesday, underscoring the Islamic Republic&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="increasing" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/23/world/middleeast/iran-un-rouhani.html" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/23/world/middleeast/iran-un-rouhani.html" target="_blank">increasing</a> <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="isolation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-bc-un--un-general-assembly-iran-saudi-arabia-20190925-story.html" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-bc-un--un-general-assembly-iran-saudi-arabia-20190925-story.html" target="_blank">isolation</a> on the international stage.The big picture: Since May 2019, the world has seen Iran <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="violate" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/middleeast/iran-uranium-intl/index.html" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/middleeast/iran-uranium-intl/index.html" target="_blank">violate</a> nuclear <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="commitments" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/irans-uranium-threats-aim-to-push-us-back-into-nuclear-deal-c6b1d22b-d445-47e1-9452-a62bbf1851f3.html" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/irans-uranium-threats-aim-to-push-us-back-into-nuclear-deal-c6b1d22b-d445-47e1-9452-a62bbf1851f3.html" target="_self">commitments</a> and attack oil <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="installations" data-vars-click-url="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/behnam-ben-taleblu-attack-on-saudi-oil-facility-shows-trump-was-right-to-pull-out-of-iran-nuke-deal" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/behnam-ben-taleblu-attack-on-saudi-oil-facility-shows-trump-was-right-to-pull-out-of-iran-nuke-deal" target="_blank">installations</a> and commercial <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="shipping" data-vars-click-url="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/05/making-sense-of-iranian-escalation.php" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/05/making-sense-of-iranian-escalation.php" target="_blank">shipping</a> critical to the international economy. France, Germany, and the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="U.K." data-vars-click-url="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretary-statement-on-iran" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretary-statement-on-iran" target="_blank">U.K.</a> have joined Washington in <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pointing a finger" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-iran-europe/update-1-britain-france-germany-blame-iran-for-saudi-attack-statement-idUSL2N26E1IO" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-iran-europe/update-1-britain-france-germany-blame-iran-for-saudi-attack-statement-idUSL2N26E1IO" target="_blank">pointing a finger</a> at Iran after the recent strikes on Saudi oil facilities, a sign that the trans-Atlantic community may be <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="uniting" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-turns-to-trump-on-iran-11569367380" data-vars-content-id="890ae0e7-65f7-4332-a099-c06dab638527" data-vars-headline="Rouhani&#x27;s UN address reflects Iran&#x27;s growing intransigence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-turns-to-trump-on-iran-11569367380" target="_blank">uniting</a> against Tehran.

The narrowing of Iran's political spectrum will be demonstrated on Friday in parliamentary elections dominated by hardline candidates.

Driving the news: An estimated one-third of sitting parliamentarians were disqualified from participating, reformists were barred en masse, and boycotts are expected from portions of the increasingly disenfranchised population.

For Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, having more hardliners at the helm of different institutions as he enters the eighth decade of his life is an insurance policy against change from within. 

For hardline politicians, the conservative consolidation will make capturing the presidency in 2021 even easier.

For Hassan Rouhani, the current president, it will confirm his lame-duck status

For the Iranian people, who have been increasingly willing to protest since 2017, it is proof that change will not come through a highly-controlled “ballot-box.”

For Washington, although the parliament does not decide foreign policy, more hardliners will likely mean a more confrontational approach, especially on the nuclear issue.

Where things stand: Iran’s unelected Guardian Council, which vets candidates for elected office, disqualified just over half of the over 15,000 people who registered to run for the 290 seat Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majlis, in Persian).

Should some seats remain vacant, a second round of voting will be held in the spring.

This will be Iran's 11th parliament since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

What they’re saying: Khamenei has played to both Islamist and nationalist sentiment in a bid to get out the vote, going so far as to call voting a “religious duty.” He told Iranians to vote even if they don’t like him. 

Others have talked about voting as a way to secure Iran and deflect foreign pressure. 

Conversely, reformist intellectuals and activists outside the country who have traditionally favored participation are now calling for an election boycott. 

Flashback: The Islamic Republic also used the 2012 parliamentary vote — which followed a disputed presidential contest — to consolidate power and spin participation as a show of support during a critical time.

The bottom line: Faced with increasing domestic unrest and Washington’s ongoing maximum pressure campaign, Iranian authorities are looking to use the election to signal strength abroad by alleging popularity at home. If turnout is as low as expected, that will send the opposite message.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Iran's hardliners look to consolidate control in parliamentary election

Electoral posters and a banner featuring Qasem Soleimani in Tehran. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

The narrowing of Iran&#x27;s political spectrum will be demonstrated on Friday in parliamentary elections dominated by hardline candidates.Driving the news: An <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="estimated one-third" data-vars-click-url="https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-hardliners-bar-dozens-of-current-lawmakers-from-running-again/30372980.html" data-vars-content-id="a4105175-6594-4fef-b659-b9c559340a7a" data-vars-headline="Iran&#x27;s hardliners look to consolidate control in parliamentary election" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-hardliners-bar-dozens-of-current-lawmakers-from-running-again/30372980.html" target="_blank">estimated one-third</a> of sitting parliamentarians were disqualified from participating, reformists were <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="barred" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/1219146226303733761" data-vars-content-id="a4105175-6594-4fef-b659-b9c559340a7a" data-vars-headline="Iran&#x27;s hardliners look to consolidate control in parliamentary election" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/1219146226303733761" target="_blank">barred</a> en masse, and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="boycotts" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/AlirezaNader/status/1229041686006857728" data-vars-content-id="a4105175-6594-4fef-b659-b9c559340a7a" data-vars-headline="Iran&#x27;s hardliners look to consolidate control in parliamentary election" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/AlirezaNader/status/1229041686006857728" target="_blank">boycotts</a> are expected from portions of the increasingly <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="disenfranchised" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-mood-idUSKBN20C0E2" data-vars-content-id="a4105175-6594-4fef-b659-b9c559340a7a" data-vars-headline="Iran&#x27;s hardliners look to consolidate control in parliamentary election" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-mood-idUSKBN20C0E2" target="_blank">disenfranchised</a> population.

Tuesday marks the first anniversary of the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, which escalated further last week with new State Department findings that link the country's construction sector to its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Why it matters: The maximum pressure policy has undoubtedly hurt Iran's economy, but it risks becoming a victim of its own success if dried-up revenues spark Iran to lash out further. While Washington has mostly avoided open conflict thus far, following that path may be harder as Iran grows more defiant.

The big picture: The pressure campaign has paired economic sanctions with expansive executive branch authorities to make it harder for Iran to "fund its foreign policy" and to pave the way to a more comprehensive pact than the 2015 nuclear deal.

Washington has largely pursued these goals alone, as levels of political and even symbolic support from international partners have fluctuated.

Flashback: On Nov. 5, 2018, the Trump administration began its campaign by targeting more than "700 individuals, entities, aircraft, and vessels," in what the Treasury Department called its "largest ever single-day action" against Iran.

The administration was making good on Trump's promise to restore sanctions previously waived by the nuclear deal, which the U.S. had left in May 2018.

Since then, Washington has deployed unilateral coercive and punitive economic measures against Tehran to squeeze revenues, limit oil sales and drive down GDP — at a much faster rate than the multilateral sanctions in place between 2006 and 2013.

What's happening: Since May 8, Iran has pursued its own graduated escalation policy, both on the nuclear file and across the region, to erode American deterrence, credibility and resolve.

Iran’s nuclear chief on Monday hailed the country’s fourth public violation of the 2015 deal: the operation of 60 centrifuges for uranium enrichment that are more powerful than those permitted under the accord.

In the face of Iranian escalation, Washington has continued to prioritize economic pressure, occasionally supplemented with diplomatic initiatives, cyber operations and troop deployments.

What to watch: Iran's leaders are staying away from the negotiating table. While felicitating the 40th anniversary of the hostage crisis on Sunday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei again shunned U.S. talks, as President Hassan Rouhani did at the UN General Assembly meeting in September. 

But with the International Monetary Fund now forecasting Iran's economy to contract by 9.5% in 2019, the Trump administration is betting that Iran could still change its mind.

Expanding U.S. pressure campaign on Iran could reach a tipping point

Tuesday marks the first anniversary of the Trump administration policy.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (C) on stage with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photo: Iranian Religious Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Tuesday marks the first anniversary of the Trump administration&#x27;s &quot;<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="maximum pressure" data-vars-click-url="https://www.state.gov/advancing-the-u-s-maximum-pressure-campaign-on-iran/" data-vars-content-id="e5bbf046-f090-4797-9a23-572f6ab05358" data-vars-headline="Expanding U.S. pressure campaign on Iran could reach a tipping point" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.state.gov/advancing-the-u-s-maximum-pressure-campaign-on-iran/" target="_blank">maximum pressure</a>&quot; campaign against Iran, which escalated further last week with new <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="State Department findings" data-vars-click-url="https://www.state.gov/findings-pursuant-to-the-iran-freedom-and-counter-proliferation-act-ifca-of-2012/" data-vars-content-id="e5bbf046-f090-4797-9a23-572f6ab05358" data-vars-headline="Expanding U.S. pressure campaign on Iran could reach a tipping point" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.state.gov/findings-pursuant-to-the-iran-freedom-and-counter-proliferation-act-ifca-of-2012/" target="_blank">State Department findings</a> that link the country&#x27;s construction sector to its <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps" data-vars-click-url="https://www.state.gov/designation-of-the-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps/" data-vars-content-id="e5bbf046-f090-4797-9a23-572f6ab05358" data-vars-headline="Expanding U.S. pressure campaign on Iran could reach a tipping point" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.state.gov/designation-of-the-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps/" target="_blank">Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps</a>.Why it matters: The maximum pressure policy has undoubtedly hurt Iran&#x27;s economy, but it risks becoming a victim of its own success if dried-up revenues spark Iran to lash out further. While Washington has mostly avoided open conflict thus far, following that path may be harder as Iran grows more defiant.

Behnam Ben Taleblu

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