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National

Signs are piling up that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is hitting "reset" on his 2024 presidential bid, including by firing campaign staff, scaling back his travel and shaking up his media strategy.

Why it matters: Republican support for DeSantis has dipped below the 20% mark in RCP's average of polls for the first time since mid-May. The popular GOP governor's months-long, downward trajectory has stirred speculation that he's destined for a Scott Walker-like flameout.

Driving the news: DeSantis' team sought to reassure donors about the state of the race yesterday in Tallahassee, Florida, where officials emphasized that presidential campaigns go through growing pains, Bloomberg reports.

The briefing came a day after news broke that DeSantis had begun firing campaign staff because of a cash crunch. Some staffers are expected to move to the deep-pocketed pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down.

Never Back Down launched a new ad in Iowa today using an AI-generated voice to re-enact Donald Trump's feud with the state's governor — marking the first time the PAC has directly attacked the former president. 

Between the lines: The Trump campaign has seized on the reports of a cash crunch, circulating a memo addressed to DeSantis donors on Monday calling on them to rethink where they're spending money.

"[I]f you still collectively pour millions of dollars into the failing Ron DeSantis campaign, you can't say you weren't warned," senior Trump advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles — a former top aide to DeSantis — wrote.

What they're saying: "Defeating Joe Biden and the $72 million behind him will require a nimble and candidate-driven campaign, and we are building a movement to go the distance," DeSantis campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo said in a statement, referring to President Biden's Q2 fundraising haul.

What to watch: In the clearest sign yet of a shift in campaign strategy, DeSantis will sit for an interview Tuesday with CNN's Jake Tapper — his first cable news interview of the campaign outside of Fox News.

In March, DeSantis attacked the "legacy media" as "very untrustworthy" — calling on Republicans to "not give them the satisfaction that they are some kind of neutral gatekeepers."

Disputing that he has not engaged with traditional media, DeSantis told Fox News yesterday: "I think that some of our best moments as a governor and as a candidate are when we’re in hostile environments."

The bottom line: Hopes that Trump would self-destruct appear to be slipping away, as his two indictments have only strengthened his iron grip on the GOP base.

A radical reset now — six months before the first votes are cast in Iowa — may be DeSantis' best chance to reverse his momentum.

DeSantis hits reset button

Florida governor is shaking up his media strategy as well in a "reset" of his 2024 presidential campaign..

2024 presidential election

Politics & Policy

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va) said Monday that he hasn't made a decision on a presidential run in 2024, but added that if enters a race, "I’m gonna win."

Why it matters: Democrats and Republicans have both criticized the prospect of a "unity" ticket over fears that it could undermine the prospects of President Biden or the Republican nominee. 

Driving the news: "I’ve never been in any race I’ve ever spoiled," Manchin said during a town hall hosted by the centrist group No Labels.

Manchin was asked about a potential run and concerns over a third party candidate peeling off voters from the Republican or Democratic nominee.

"I’ve been in races to win. If I get in a race, I’m gonna win. With that being said, I haven’t made a decision," he added. 

Manchin, appearing with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) on Monday, also said that both parties would be "in trouble" if a third option is presented in 2024, but added that "it's too early." 

The big picture: No Labels co-founder and leader Nancy Jacobson previously said the group's project is "an insurance policy in the event both major parties put forth presidential candidates the vast majority of Americans don’t support."

She has said that the group will not nominate a ticket "if our rigorously gathered data and polling suggests an independent unity ticket can’t win."

Manchin, 75, has kept the door open for a presidential bid and he told "Fox News Sunday" last month that "No Labels has been moving and pushing very hard, the centrist middle."

Go deeper: 2024's first act: Ramaswamy up, Pence down in Iowa

2024's first act: Ramaswamy up, Pence down in Iowa

Joe Manchin fires back against 2024 spoiler label

Manchin said Monday that he has not yet made a decision regarding a potential presidential run in 2024.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, questions Interior Secretary Deb Haaland during a hearing on May 02, 2023

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) questions Interior Secretary Deb Haaland during a hearing on May 2. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Joe Manchin

Elections 2024

Data: The Generation Lab; Chart: Axios Visuals

Young Americans are piling the blame for their student debt balances on conservatives, according to a poll by Generation Lab provided exclusively to Axios.

Why it matters: The high court's recent decisions on education, including student loans and affirmative action, could drive young voters to the polls.

Tens of millions of borrowers in the U.S. collectively owe more than $1 trillion.

Catch up quick: The Supreme Court's six conservative justices recently killed President Biden's historic forgiveness plan — and the coming payment resumption carries significant economic and political implications.

Under Biden's plan, qualifying borrowers would have been forgiven for loans up to $10,000 if they made under $125,000 per year or $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients. Its announcement last summer incited immediate GOP backlash. 

Republicans drove the lawsuits challenging it, criticizing it as a "bailout for the wealthy," and GOP presidential candidates immediately praised the Supreme Court's decision.

By the numbers: Most respondents blamed SCOTUS and the GOP for student debt going unforgiven:

47% said the Supreme Court was responsible.

38% said the Republicans were responsible. 

More than half of respondents did not agree with the court's ruling last month, according to Generation Lab.

17% agreed with the decision, and 21% were unsure. 

Three-quarters of people polled said they were aware of the SCOTUS ruling prior to the poll.

Driving the news: Meanwhile, Biden has begun rolling out his plan B and aims to appeal to young voters.

The administration said Friday it would alleviate $39 billion of debt for 804,000 borrowers.

The Biden re-election campaign could lose voters who care about student debt forgiveness if it doesn't clearly align with them, said Analilia Mejia, co-executive director of the Center for Popular Democracy Action. 

"They obviously need to ensure that there is high enthusiasm across the voting bloc to secure victory" in 2024, she said.

Of note: Public confidence in the Supreme Court has been staggeringly low in recent months, particularly since it overturned Roe v. Wade.

"Young people are right. It's a radicalized Supreme Court," Mejia said.

The big picture: The coming student loan cliff is the latest in a string of withdrawals of pandemic-era supports.

Federal student loan payments will resume in October after years of COVID-related pauses.

Americans with student loan debt tend to be younger, with lower incomes — they're spending a higher share of their income already, so an additional monthly payment will hurt.

Methodology: The Generation Lab, which measures youth trends and perspectives, polled 783 college students and recent graduates nationwide July 12–17 about who's responsible for student loans not being forgiven.

Go deeper: Who owes the most in federal student loans

Who owes the most in federal student loans

Young Americans blame SCOTUS, GOP for unforgiven student loan debt

Conservatives are taking the heat after the Supreme Court killed Biden's student loan relief plan.

Student debt

Two protestors hold signs related to student loan debt forgiveness. One person in a white medical coat holds a sign that says "in debt $350,000 to learn how to save your life." Other person in yellow jacket holds sign that says "you can do it Joe!"

Earnings season kicked off Friday — but investors haven't seemed to care much about corporate fundamentals lately.

The big picture: The S&P 500 is up big this year. But importantly, it's not really because people think corporations will bag far fatter profits in the immediate future.

In fact, Wall Street analysts think companies in the S&P 500 will see earnings per share rise just 1% in 2023, compared with 2022.

The S&P 500, on the other hand, is up 17%.

In other words, share prices are outpacing puny expectations for profit growth.

💭 Matt's thought bubble: Stock market stories often tell you flat out that share prices reflect future expectations for corporate earnings.

Kind of. But the markets have many moods. There are often stretches when investors are indifferent to "financial fundamentals."

In such times, the market's speculative pulse — animal spirits, if you like — are rising, and bullish sentiment rules.

At times like these — the late 1990s for instance, or even 2021 — well-reasoned arguments about profits, losses and sales are beside the point.

Between the lines: These moments often coincide with times when monetary policy is "easy," meaning interest rates are low.

To be clear, the Fed shows no signs of cutting rates.

But with inflation finally in retreat, the market is breathing a huge sigh of relief that last year's rate surge is over.

And interest-rate sensitive growth stocks — embodied by the Nasdaq Composite — have romped higher by more than 35% this year.

Be smart: Wall Street has jargon for everything, including the current market climate, i.e. when stocks are rising but expectations for profits aren't.

The fancypants term of art to know is "multiple expansion."

The "multiple" in question is the so-called price-to-earnings ratio, which is one of the most widely watched metrics on stock market valuation.

The P/E multiple is pretty high right now, at 19.5, as a result of this year's rally.

Historically a P/E multiple of around 15 is considered "fairly valued."

What it means: When markets peeps talk about "multiple expansion," it's basically a sophisticated sounding way of saying "the market is going up but not because companies are expected to do much better, but just kind of, well, because it's going up."

What they're saying: References to multiple expansion have multiplied.

"Multiples have carried the market higher since the October 2022 lows. Can investors continue to rely on multiple expansion to lift stocks? In not, earnings growth better kick in," Piper Sandler analysts noted last week.

"Lower inflation lowers the risk of higher interest rates, which in turn supports the multiple expansion that has boosted U.S. equities year-to-date," Janus Henderson investment analysts wrote last week.

"With year-to-date returns driven nearly 100 percent by multiple expansion, the market either doesn't appear to care about earnings, or it expects a major reacceleration in growth both later this year and next," wrote Morgan Stanley's stock market wags.

The bottom line: Expectations that corporate America will massively grow its profits — which are already historically giant — are not what's lifting stocks this year. 

The stock market’s up big this year — but not because of earnings growth

Stock market

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Monitoring the planet's climate this summer can give one the impression that the climate system — which includes the oceans, atmosphere, ice sheets and more — has gone off the rails.

Why it matters: The blitz of extreme weather events is posing dangers to life and infrastructure, and exposing our vulnerabilities even at today's relatively modest level of warming, about 1.2°C (2.16°F) above preindustrial levels.

Even a quick scan at the front pages of newspapers worldwide can impart a sense of deep unease.

The big picture: This past weekend alone featured dangerous heat in the Southwest and West; Miami's first "Excessive Heat Warning;" explosive, dark and angry clouds erupting from massive wildfires in British Columbia; and more. 

On Sunday, China set a provisional all-time national heat record, with a high of 52.2°C (126°F) in Sanbao. Separately, European nations are poised to tie or break their all-time record high temperature this week amid a fierce heat wave building along the Mediterranean coast. 

In Vermont, residents are only beginning to clean up from one of the state's most damaging flash floods on record. 

Meanwhile, climate scientists are raising alarms about global trends. The planet is coming off the warmest June on record, with temperatures likely to climb even higher in July. The oceans, especially the North Atlantic, are off-the-charts warm. 

Far to the south, Antarctic sea ice cover has precipitously dropped in a development that has scientists searching for answers. 

The intrigue: Climate studies have warned about an uptick in simultaneous heat waves occurring in the Northern Hemisphere. That's partly due to the contortions of the jet stream, which helps to steer and power storm systems.  

One such study published last year found concurrent heatwaves are becoming more intense and affecting larger areas, with a nearly sixfold increase in their frequency in the most recent decade compared to the 1980s. 

Initial signs point to a particularly slow-moving or even stuck jet stream pattern known to favor heat waves as potentially related to the extreme heat in the U.S., Europe and China, University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann told Axios via email. 

Research that Mann and his colleagues have published shows that climate change may be increasing the chances that such weather patterns will develop. 

Between the lines: Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University, says what is happening now demonstrates that the climate is a non-linear system. 

"In a linear system, changes occur in a straight line. If climate impacts were linear, each 0.1°C increase in temperature would produce the same increment of damage," he tells Axios in an email. 

He notes, however, that the built and natural worlds each have thresholds, beyond which severe impacts can occur. 

What this summer's weather reveals about climate change

The blitz of extreme weather events is posing dangers to life and infrastructure.

Axios

Monday's top stories

DeSantis hits reset button

Joe Manchin fires back against 2024 spoiler label

Young Americans blame SCOTUS, GOP for unforgiven student loan debt

The stock market’s up big this year — but not because of earnings growth

What this summer's weather reveals about climate change

Bringing back the automat

Life is about to get much more expensive for millions of families

Jayapal's Israel comments spark internal backlash

Sony signs 10-year deal with Microsoft to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation

2024 House majority runs through the courts

Summer camp gains importance for kids who survived a pandemic

Record migration sparks backlash in wealthy nations

Scorching Southwest heat wave breaks records Saturday, with a hotter Sunday to come