1 big thing: One big bank's unionizing workforce

Illustration of a piggy bank on a protest sign.

2. Catch up quick

3. Debt dilemmas

4. Auto earnings rev 

🤷‍♀️ Did your weekend go as fast as ours? While the autoworker strike continues — and we're checking on carmaker income today — we're also looking at a much more nascent effort to unionize. Let's go! 

Today's newsletter is 1,105 words, 4.5 minutes. 

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Today's Axios Markets was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.

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1 big thing: Slow motion car wreck in Detroit 

Illustration of a half finished car chassis with a sign stuck in the frame that reads "Strike". 

3. 🥺 Stock market would still really, really like rate cuts

4. Where's mom? At the office

5. Japan's U.S. auto export surge

⚡️Good morning! Our friends at Axios Pro are out with a new AI policy whitepaper — the legislation, lawmakers and companies to watch. Download it.

Let's get to the news — 1,034 words and 4 minutes. 

1 big thing: Let's get skeptical  

Illustration of a close up of Ben Franklin from a hundred dollar bill looking skeptical

💸 2. Slumping savings  

3. ⛽️ Oil prices creeping up

4. 🏦 Tougher bank lending  

5. 🔮 Still inverted  

6. Catch up quick 

💬 Given the tone of a lot of the talk recently, a "soft landing" might seem like a sure thing. Think again.    

Today's newsletter is 1,016 words, 4 minutes.

1 big thing: "They're still helpless to stop it"

UAW picketers outside Stellantis headquarters in Auburn Hills, Mich. Photo: Matthew Hatcher via Getty Images

2. Fiery strategy put to the test

Illustration of a hand holding a strike protest sign with the cardboard cut in the shape of a car

3. Catch up quick

4. 📈 Higher for longer

5. Job market is still looking resilient

🔥 The Axios BFD lineup is growing: Reid Hoffman will join us at the event in New York on Oct. 12 for a discussion on AI investments. Request your invitation.

Today's newsletter is 1,125 words, 4.5 minutes.

1 big thing: On the cusp of a crisis 

3. Small biz confidence 

4. Saudi Arabia tightens its taps

5. 💭 Quoted: Texas two-cents

Chair Jerome Powell takes the podium at 2:30 ET. The big question, per Axios' Fed whisperer Neil Irwin, isn't the announcement about rates today, (most observers expect no change) but what if anything is hinted about future plans?

Today's newsletter is 1,155 words, a 4.5-minute read. 

National

The yield on 10-year Treasurys climbed to a new 16-year high on Thursday.

Why it matters: The 10-year U.S. government bond is the most widely followed gauge of long-term interest rates.

It's also a key input into stock market valuation models.  

Driving the news: T-note yields jumped to nearly 4.5% in early trading on Thursday morning shortly after positive data on the job market was released. 

Context: The rise in 10-year yields comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates untouched, but simultaneously signaled that it's unlikely to cut rates any time soon, since the U.S. economy still seems strong. 

New weekly jobless claims numbers out Thursday also reinforced the notion that the Fed's efforts to curtail inflation haven't damaged growth much. 

Between the lines: At the moment, good news for the economy isn't doing much for the stock market, as the higher rates have been weighing on the hugely important tech sector, as they often do. 

The tech heavy Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 were both down about 1% as of Thursday afternoon.

The S&P is on track for its worst month since a nearly 6% drop in December. 

signaled that it is unlikely to cut rates soon

Benchmark Treasury yields hit 16-year high

Investors are digesting positive jobs data and the Fed's "higher for longer" message.

Bond markets

The yield on 10-year Treasurys climbed to a new 16-year high on Thursday.Why it matters: The 10-year U.S. government bond is the most widely followed gauge of long-term interest rates.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Data: FactSet, U.S. Department of Labor; Chart: Axios Visuals

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to the lowest weekly level since January. 

Why it matters: Claims are one of the best bits of high-frequency economic data available, giving a quick snapshot of the health of the job market. 

 Context: Since the start of the year, jobless claims had been gradually rising, as the Fed's efforts to slow down the economy with rate hikes over the last year seemed to be gaining traction. 

Yes, but: In recent weeks, they've fallen back down toward the 200,000 area, a low level that last prevailed during the late 1960s. 

The intrigue: This is good news for the economy, suggesting that there's still considerable momentum. 

But it's not great for the stock market, since it suggests that the Fed won't be cutting interest rates any time soon. 

Weekly jobless claims hit a low not seen since January

The job market's still looking pretty resilient.

Jobs

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to the lowest weekly level since January. Why it matters: Claims are one of the best bits of high-frequency economic data available, giving a quick snapshot of the health of the job market.

Data: Japan Customs, FactSet; Chart Axios Visuals

Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. have surged this year. They were 50% higher, in yen terms, during August compared with the same month last year — and it was the seventh straight month of double-digit gains.

What's happening: The yen has weakened by nearly 13% against the dollar this year, as the Fed's interest rate hikes helped strengthen the greenback.

A weaker yen means Japanese exports are cheaper for American buyers.

Japanese carmakers are enjoying the current situation, with shares of Toyota Motor up 54% this year, Subaru up 47%, and Honda Motor up 76% — in yen terms — beating the 27% gain for the Nikkei 225.

Between the lines: With workers now striking at American carmakers, Japanese auto giants may see an opportunity to make inroads in the U.S.   

Such a push would be helped by the favorable financial tailwinds created by the exchange rate. 

Of note: The weak yen hasn't supercharged all exports from Japan. Exports to China fell 11% year over year thanks to the weakening economic conditions in the world's second-largest economy. 

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to remove an outdated and incorrect reference to Subaru's name. It is now Subaru Corp., formerly Fuji Heavy Industries.

Japan's auto exports to the U.S. surge

Automakers

Stocks sell off after Powell crushes rate-cut hopes

Stocks sold off after the Fed chair crushed those hopes.

Interest rates

Stock market

The Fed <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="didn&#x27;t touch rates" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/fed-rates-unchanged" data-vars-content-id="92c0b91e-e3ac-4496-98af-e9cc608c94d0" data-vars-headline="Stocks sell off after Powell crushes rate-cut hopes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/fed-rates-unchanged" target="_self">didn&#x27;t touch rates</a> Wednesday. And stocks still didn&#x27;t like it. Why it matters: The share slide suggests that year&#x27;s market rally may be based in part on unrealistic expectations that the Fed will quickly flip toward cutting rates if the economy continues to look like it could pull off <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="a soft landing" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/07/18/us-recession-2023-prediction-probability" data-vars-content-id="92c0b91e-e3ac-4496-98af-e9cc608c94d0" data-vars-headline="Stocks sell off after Powell crushes rate-cut hopes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/07/18/us-recession-2023-prediction-probability" target="_self">a soft landing</a>.

Production cuts coordinated by oil giants Saudi Arabia and Russia have helped drive global crude prices sharply higher.

Why it matters: The rise in oil prices seems to be giving the stock market agita, by reinvigorating inflation pressures and increasing the chances that the Federal Reserve imposes more interest rate hikes.

The S&P 500 shed nearly 2% in August and is down 1.5% so far in September.

Catch up quick: Saudi Arabian oil production plunged in August, as the oil giant followed through on previously announced plans to cut supply. 

Saudi officials have said production will languish at that level at least through December. 

Production is down roughly two million barrels per day since September 2022. 

The latest: West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices climbed above $92 a barrel in trading Tuesday, the highest in 10 months for the U.S. benchmark. 

Brent crude, the global benchmark, clawed above $95 a barrel. 

What they're saying: Saudi officials have argued that the extension of production cuts, which angered many Western officials, is a prudent response to surprisingly soft global demand, especially from China. 

"We want to make sure that the messaging is clear," said Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's energy minister, at an oil industry event in Calgary this week. "It's not about jacking up prices."

The bottom line: Intent aside, the Saudi cuts seem to be influencing views about the near-term direction of oil prices. 

On Tuesday, Mike Worth, CEO of Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, told Bloomberg that he sees crude oil getting close to crossing $100 a barrel.  

oil getting close to crossing $100 a barrel

Saudi Arabia tightens its oil taps, sending prices toward $100 per barrel

Oil prices are climbing back toward $100.

Production cuts coordinated by oil giants Saudi Arabia and Russia have helped drive global crude prices sharply higher.Why it matters: The rise in oil prices seems to be giving the stock market agita, by reinvigorating inflation pressures and increasing the chances that the Federal Reserve imposes more interest rate hikes.

Matt Phillips

Stories

Benchmark Treasury yields hit 16-year high

Weekly jobless claims hit a low not seen since January

Japan's auto exports to the U.S. surge

Stocks sell off after Powell crushes rate-cut hopes

Saudi Arabia tightens its oil taps, sending prices toward $100 per barrel

Newsletter editions

🚗 "Operational chaos"

🚙 Car wreck

⚠️ "Broken" industry

🤔 Soft landing skeptics

🏦 Big Bank union pressure