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National

Trump wings it at his "Chuck 'n Nancy" meetings. But Schumer and Pelosi spend a lot of time choreographing these meetings, according to sources familiar with their planning. They list off things they won't budge on and game out how to respond to Trump’s inevitable curve balls (such as calling in the TV cameras to watch them spar).

Here's what Democrats will demand in Tuesday's infrastructure discussion, per a source familiar:

Any infrastructure bill "must be real money." Translation: Major federal spending, not through public-private partnerships or deregulation.

They need to know where the money is coming from. Translation: Trump must be willing to discuss tax hikes to pay for new spending if he wants their support. (Senate Democrats put out a plan last year that proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 25% — still much lower than it was before Trump's tax cuts.)

The bill must include strong labor protections and must require that materials used be American-made. 

The bill must address climate change, with major investments in renewable energy. (Chuck Schumer gave insight into this in his December op-ed and letter to the president.)

Inside Pelosi and Schumer's Trump meeting prep

Here's what Democrats will demand in Tuesday's infrastructure discussion...

Meeting in the Oval Office, Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2018. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Politics

Donald Trump

Politics & Policy

President Trump says he thinks he could strike a bilateral trade deal with Japan by the time he visits Tokyo in May. (Trump made this prediction during a Friday meeting at the White House with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.)

Reality check: Multiple sources close to the U.S.-Japanese trade talks tell me this is ridiculous spin. Trump's big demand — that the Japanese drop their massive tariffs on U.S. agricultural products — isn't going to happen anytime soon. They say the two sides haven't even agreed on the scope of these trade talks, let alone crafted serious plans for the timing of a possible deal.

"Japan is hoping the USMCA and China will continue to preoccupy USTR [the U.S. trade representative] and the White House," said a source close to the Japanese negotiating team. (Translation: They have little interest in a bilateral deal; rather, Abe is indulging Trump and playing for time.)

Between the lines: Abe has no political wiggle room to give Trump what he wants on agriculture without getting significant U.S. concessions in return. Japan's farming lobby is far more powerful than America's — it’s virtually untouchable.

Abe already stretched himself to make agricultural concessions for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal, and those benefits have been reallocated to the other TPP countries. He doesn’t have much political capital left. 

Abe would need to appeal to Japan's legislature to get more farming concessions. Japanese elections are in July, and there's no way he will do anything before then. Even after then, the politics are still very tough. 

Reality check: Trump claims he can strike a trade deal with Japan by May

Multiple sources close to the U.S.-Japanese trade talks tell Axios this is ridiculous spin.

President Trump and first lady Melania Trump welcome Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife Akie Abe to the White House, April 26. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Japan

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Vice President Joe Biden's 2020 announcement sounded like he was ready to skip the primary. He dove right in, directly attacking his hoped-for competitor: President Donald Trump.

The big picture: Axios reached out to every Democratic presidential campaign over the past few days to preview their general election strategy.

Sen. Kamala Harris' campaign said they'll focus on "Harris the prosecutor." "If you were to canvas the Democratic electorate, a significant portion of it thinks Donald Trump is a criminal, and who best to take that on than a prosecutor?" a campaign aide said.

Sen. Cory Booker will play up that Trump came in on a promise to drain the swamp, "but we've seen the exact opposite — he's enriching his pals across the country," a Booker campaign aide said. The aide said Booker is running on the idea that America needs to restore justice and fairness in a time when the Trump administration has chipped away at it.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar's campaign said she'll focus on Trump's empty promises, specifically on health care and prescription drugs, and she'll point to how her record in office shows "she's getting things done as a senator and he isn't as president."

Julián Castro's message will be: "I'm the antithesis to Donald Trump. I’m a young Latino man who grew up in a family with modest means. I know what it looks like to achieve the American dream," per a Castro spokesperson.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren's spokesperson pointed Axios to her Feb. 9 announcement speech where she stated that Trump "is not the cause of what’s broken, he’s just the latest, and most extreme, symptom of what’s gone wrong in America." She'll prioritize how she would fight for big, structural change.

John Delaney's spokesperson said they're "going to make a really good case for the fact that we actually need a boring president. We need the guy who can get the job done and won’t make a bunch of waves."

Rep. Eric Swalwell will note that he's the product of a working family, first in his family to go to college, and still paying down his student loan debt. "He sees and hears what working Americans need because he always has been in the same boat as them,” his campaign said.

Gov. Jay Inslee's team says he will contrast Trump's pessimism with his optimism, specifically how the president "acts as though Americans can’t solve the impacts of climate change, while the governor is optimistic we can take on this existential threat," an Inslee spokesperson said.

Rep. Tim Ryan will argue that he can unite Americans, while Trump just divides them, a Ryan campaign aide said.

What we're hearing: Some Democratic operatives told Axios they worry about Trump dominating this election cycle the way he did in 2016 — something that could easily happen with Biden making Trump's character the focus of his campaign.

How 9 of the 2020 Democrats plan to take on Trump

Axios reached out to every Democratic presidential campaign to preview their general election strategy.

2020 election candidates

Kamala Harris

2020 election

At last month's St. Patrick's Day lunch in the Capitol, President Trump told Richard Neal, the powerful Democratic chairman of the House's tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, that he wants to spend close to $2 trillion on infrastructure, according to two sources to whom Neal recounted his conversation. 

The big picture: Trump's 2020 Budget calls for just $200 billion in additional infrastructure spending. A spokesperson for Neal did not comment on this reporting. A former senior White House official told me that on infrastructure, Trump's instincts are much closer to Elizabeth Warren's than they are to his tight-fisted acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney.

Why it matters: Trump meets on Tuesday with Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi to discuss infrastructure. These meetings usually amount to nothing besides a media circus. But Democrats still take these meetings — in fact, Pelosi requested this one — because they know that, left to his own devices, Trump would happily spend a ton of federal money on infrastructure. (It's his own party that won't let him.)

The dirty secret — which multiple senior White House officials have confirmed to me — is that Trump hates the infrastructure plan his own White House released last year. In private, he has referred to it dismissively as "Gary's plan," a shot at his former top economic adviser Gary Cohn.

The heart of "Gary's plan" was to build infrastructure through "public-private partnerships" — leveraging a modest amount of government spending to stimulate private investment in projects around the country.

Democratic leaders have no interest in public-private partnerships. Neither does Trump. Even though he himself has benefited richly from public-private partnerships (as with the Trump International Hotel in D.C.), he has told aides he thinks they don't work and that they need to spend real federal money instead.

Behind the scenes: Trump came into office imagining a presidency in which new projects — "built by the Trump administration" — would be erected all over the country, sources close to him tell me.

"There was a genuine naïveté about the prospect of Democrats and Republicans coming together to do something on a grand scale with infrastructure," a former White House official told me. "It was one of those things where Trump said it was gonna be easy. He really thought so."

In an early 2017 infrastructure meeting at the White House with his friend, New York real estate billionaire Richard LeFrak, Trump laid out his grand Trumpian vision. "They say Eisenhower was the greatest infrastructure president. They named the highway system after him," Trump said, per a source who was in the room. "But we're going to do double, triple, quadruple, what Eisenhower did."

What's next? Nobody will come into the Tuesday meeting with an infrastructure plan, according to White House, administration and Democratic leadership sources who’ve discussed the meeting plans with me. And there are no plans to present even a top-line figure or a list of ways to offset new spending.

"The whole thing comes under the heading of an ongoing discussion," a senior administration official with direct knowledge of the plans for Tuesday's meeting told me. "Nobody wants to lay down specific markers. Nobody wants to rule in; nobody wants to rule out."

The White House team working on the issue — led by Larry Kudlow — seems much less excited than Democrats are about new, large-scale federal spending on infrastructure. Instead, they are focused on cutting permitting regulations, making it easier to spur energy development, and signing a longer-term transportation funding bill.

Go deeper: Inside Pelosi and Schumer's prep for Tuesday's meeting

Scoop: Trump's $2 trillion spending dream

Trump's instincts are much closer to Elizabeth Warren's than they are to Mick Mulvaney's.

Infrastructure

Former Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), a foreign policy expert who served in the Senate for 36 years and helped lead the dismantling of thousands of nuclear warheads and missiles from former Soviet states, passed away at the age of 87 on Sunday.

What they're saying: "I first worked with Dick when I was a freshman Senator, in an effort to expand his landmark 1991 nuclear nonproliferation framework," said former President Barack Obama. "Dick always stuck to the facts. He understood the intricacies of America’s power and the way words uttered in Washington echo around the globe. But perhaps most importantly, he exhibited the truth that common courtesy can speak across cultures.

"In Dick, I saw someone who wasn’t a Republican or Democrat first, but a problem-solver—an example of the impact a public servant can make by eschewing partisan divisiveness to instead focus on common ground."

Vice President Mike Pence: "Senator Lugar’s contributions to the life of our nation are countless. Richard Lugar was a leader not only in the Senate but also on the world stage, where he worked tirelessly to bring pressure to end apartheid in South Africa and enforce treaties that destroyed Soviet weapons of mass destruction. As the longest serving member of Congress from Indiana, and a Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient, he leaves behind a legacy of public service that will inspire Hoosiers for generations."

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-Ind.): "America has lost a true statesman in Dick Lugar. A great mayor, senator, and mentor, he made the world safer, stood up for better foreign policy, and knew how to work across the aisle. He was never too important to make time for a young Hoosier public servant of either party. And I have never seen a Senator’s office so filled with books."

Gov. Eric Holcomb (R-Ind.): "The world weeps alongside Indiana after just learning we lost one of our best, ever. As an always faithful servant to the highest ideals in every walk of his incredible life, Richard Lugar ran the family farm, charted a new innovative course for Indiana’s capital city, and devoted a record six terms as a U.S. Senator to making the world a more prosperous and peaceful place. He was an officer and gentleman, father and faith leader, a Mayor and Senator, a diplomat and legendary role model to millions."

Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.): "Senator Richard Lugar is a towering figure in Hoosier history and one of the greatest statesmen ever to serve in the U.S. Senate. As our longest serving Senator, he worked tirelessly with leaders across the globe to better the state and the country he loved. Maureen and I are praying for the Lugar family in this difficult time."

Former Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.): "Indiana and America have lost an American hero today in Richard Lugar. He dedicated his life to serving our country. I am personally crushed by this loss as he was a hero and mentor to me, and I always tried to live up to his example in the United States Senate."

Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett (D-Ind.): "Senator Lugar's career is rightfully characterized by his time in the United States Senate and his outstanding leadership on matters of foreign security and international diplomacy. But he began his public life as a member of the Indianapolis Board of School Commissioners, before becoming a visionary mayor who embraced the transformative potential of local government. He understood that progress could only occur when good ideas and good people came together -- from all sides of the political landscape. And he demonstrated a commitment to country over party, community over self, that is almost unparalleled in today's polarized world."

Washington and Indiana mourn death of former Sen. Richard Lugar

"[P]erhaps most importantly, he exhibited the truth that common courtesy can speak across cultures," said former President Obama.

President Obama awarding Sen. Lugar the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Indiana

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Disney continues to take theaters by storm. The company's 3-hour-long presentation of Marvel’s "Avengers: Endgame" has obliterated box office records, bringing in a whopping $350 million in North America and $1.2 billion worldwide during its opening weekend. 

Why it matters: No other movie has ever made this much money at the box office during its weekend opener. The 2nd-highest opening weekend for any film globally was Disney's 2018 presentation of Marvel's "Avengers: Infinity War," which brought in roughly half as much money at $640.5 million.

The Big Picture: The movie's success speaks to the critical role that theaters still play in cinema, despite the fact that more people are watching films through streaming services like Netflix, Amazon and soon-to-be Disney+. 

“This weekend is the culmination of a decade of investments by theater owners in technology, comfort and convenience and a decade-long bet by Disney on the power of the moviegoing experience. This record-shattering weekend didn’t just happen in movie theaters; it happened because of movie theaters.”

Patrick Corcoran, vice president and chief communications officer at the National Association of Theater Owners

Yes, but: It also speaks to the power of the popular franchises that Disney has carefully cultivated over the past few years. Five of the top 10 highest-grossing box office weekend openers belong to Disney-owned franchises, like Marvel and Star Wars. Disney has had the top-grossing global studio performance since 2016.

Be smart: As Axios' Felix Salmon notes, experts predict that "Endgame's" record haul will bring it near "cash breakeven" by Sunday, which is unprecedented for a super hero movie. This means that Disney will earn back the amount it needs to compensate debts for the film that have been laid out on a contractual basis. Only a handful of movies have achieved this milestone before.

Early data predicted that the movie would be a box office smash, receiving both critical claim and positive audience reviews. 

The movie received a "96" out of 100 on the movie review site Rotten Tomatoes, and early viewer surveys suggested that audiences were delighted with the film. 

According to Comscore’s PostTrak audience survey, out Thursday after previews aired in some markets, audiences gave “Endgame” a full 5 out of 5 stars with a massive 90 total positive score. 

Between the lines: The film has awakened an otherwise sleepy start to the box office this year. Domestic box office revenue for the first 3 months of the year was at its lowest level in 6 years, according to Comscore numbers. 

The bottom line: "Nearly every box-office record was broken by this juggernaut of a film from Thursday previews to single-day grosses and everything in between," says Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian. 

Disney’s "Avengers: Endgame" smashes box office records

No other movie has ever made this much money at the box office during its weekend opener.

Photo by George Pimentel/Getty Images for Disney Studios

Business

Movies

Technology

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Capital

Axios Capital

What should a Democratic presidential candidate's economic policy look like? The field is now up to 20 candidates, with Joe Biden the latest big name to declare that he's running. 

The state of play: While Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang have carved out a niche for themselves as the wonks of the race, most of the rest are light on detail, especially when it comes to fiscal policy.

Enter Joe Stiglitz, whose new book, "People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent," presents itself as "a platform that can serve as a consensus for a renewed Democratic Party." Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate who worked in the Clinton administration, has written a coherent manifesto that could quite easily be adopted by a majority of the Democratic candidates.

The book avoids labels. While a lot of its prescriptions can be seen as socialist, Stiglitz goes no further than to say that he's a "progressive capitalist." And while he says that the government should spend as much money as it takes to bring the economy to full employment, he nowhere deviates from economic orthodoxy. Nor does he even so much as mention modern monetary theory.

A much stronger antitrust regime is at the top of Stiglitz's agenda. He calls for breaking up Facebook and aggressively regulating all monopolists, however they arrived at their position. (That includes pharmaceutical companies with patented drugs.) He also wants to limit the degree to which companies can use and agglomerate data; even after it's broken up, he says, Facebook should probably be regulated as a public utility.

A guaranteed job for all who are willing to work is also on the list. Stiglitz opposes a universal basic income, saying it's too expensive and doesn't place sufficient value on employment. The jobs guarantee would not explicitly be a form of reparations, he says, but by its nature it would disproportionately benefit African-Americans.

Public options should be introduced in many areas of American life, says Stiglitz. Americans should have the option to sign on to Medicare — just like they should have the option to pay extra money into their Social Security accounts, rather than relying on Wall Street for their pensions. They should also have the option to obtain a mortgage directly from the government.

College should be paid for through an Australian-style graduate tax. Graduates earning more than $30,000 might pay 1% of their income toward repaying their student loans; those on seven-figure salaries might pay 4%. After 25 years, the loans are forgiven.

Why it matters: Stiglitz is a critic of what he sees as the incrementalist approach of Presidents Clinton and Obama. "Our polity has slid so far that we are now compelled to turn to fundamental issues in order to cure what ails us," he writes. "Minor tweaks of current arrangements won't get us to where we need to be." Whether or not his specific ideas are adopted, you can expect such maximalism to be a theme coming from most of the Democratic field.

A Democratic fiscal manifesto

A Nobel laureate's new book presents itself as "a platform that can serve as a consensus for a renewed Democratic Party."

Illustration of all the 2020 democratic candidates around a dollar bill

Attorney General Bill Barr may not testify before the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday due to objections over the hearing's format, CNN first reported and several other outlets later confirmed.

Barr threatens to cancel House testimony due to hearing format

It could fuel an already heated partisan battle over Barr's behavior in the run-up to the release of the Mueller report.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Inside Pelosi and Schumer's Trump meeting prep

Reality check: Trump claims he can strike a trade deal with Japan by May

How 9 of the 2020 Democrats plan to take on Trump

Scoop: Trump's $2 trillion spending dream

Washington and Indiana mourn death of former Sen. Richard Lugar

Disney’s "Avengers: Endgame" smashes box office records

A Democratic fiscal manifesto

Barr threatens to cancel House testimony due to hearing format

Hate-fueled attacks continue to be accelerated by online platforms

Bolton confirms U.S. signed document to pay North Korea for Otto Warmbier

Trump tells Wisconsin rally: We're sending migrants to sanctuary cities

Shooting at California synagogue during Passover celebration

Trump: Japan is investing $40 billion in U.S. car factories