Axios

The Supreme Court is unlikely to decide this election.

The big picture: The Trump campaign has filed multiple lawsuits in the hours since the president declared that “we will be going to the Supreme Court.” But election-law experts say it's still a long shot that the justices will decide the next president.

Georgia and North Carolina were both seen as battlegrounds this election cycle, but not many predicted they’d be among the last states to be called.

We find out what’s happening on the ground, and when a projected winner may be declared, with Atlanta Journal-Constitution reporter Greg Bluestein and Duke’s Polis: Center for Politics director of research Deondra Rose.

Joe Biden has won the state of Michigan, a key swing state in the race for the presidency, AP projects.

Why it matters: Biden’s flip of the state’s 16 electoral votes comes after a similar victory in Wisconsin — and bodes well for the former vice president’s prospects in the outstanding Rust Belt battleground of Pennsylvania.

Whatever the final outcome of the U.S. presidential election is, it is unlikely to alter long-running political and cultural divides within the country.

Why it matters: America has faced worse divisions in the past and survived — at great cost — but with polarization set to deepen over time, the country could face paralyzing political sclerosis or even calls for secession, two recent books argue.

Former Vice President Joe Biden said in a speech from Wilmington, Delaware, on Wednesday afternoon that he’s not ready to declare victory yet, but “when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners.”

The big picture: Neither Biden nor President Trump has secured the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to claim a win. Biden currently has 248 electoral votes, while Trump has 214.

President Trump's rocky relationship with Fox News was on full display Election Day, starting with his morning call into the cable news network during which he complained that things are "much different now" than in 2016.

Driving the news: Fox called Arizona for Joe Biden around 11:30pm ET Tuesday, ahead of almost all other major news networks. Around 3am on Wednesday, AP put Arizona in Biden's column.

Wisconsin has been called for Joe Biden, but the Trump campaign has already asked for a recount. We dig into what happens next with WisconsinWatch reporter Nora Eckert, who says that the "irregularities" alleged by the Trump campaign are a misunderstanding of how the state's process works.

Congressional races saw record-shattering fundraising numbers this year, with Democrats pouring money into candidates challenging Republican incumbents.

Why it matters: Democrats heavily invested in these contenders with the hope of flipping the Senate. The races brought in an outpouring of small-dollar donations.

Joe Biden has won the state of Wisconsin, a key swing state in the race for the presidency, AP projects.

Why it matters: Biden's flip of the state's 10 electoral votes further narrows President Trump's potential paths to victory — and bodes well for the former vice president's prospects in the outstanding Rust Belt battlegrounds of Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Bob Bauer, a former White House counsel and current Biden campaign adviser, prematurely declared victory for Joe Biden during a press briefing on Wednesday, saying "we’re winning the election, we’ve won the election and we’re going to defend that election."

Why it matters: Neither Biden nor President Trump has yet secured the necessary 270 electoral college votes needed to claim victory.

President Trump may have solidified his control over the Republican Party — even if he doesn't pull out a victory over Joe Biden — by expanding the GOP electorate and helping to reverse some 2016 Congressional losses.

Take a listen:

GOP Sen. Susan Collins has won re-election against Democrat Sara Gideon (D) in Maine, AP projects.

Why it matters: Collins has served in the Senate for 24 years, but has faced tougher re-election battles in recent years. Democrats had expected a defeat for the moderate Republican to play a crucial role in their efforts win back the Senate.

The Trump campaign on Wednesday said it would "immediately" request a recount in Wisconsin, after the key battleground state appeared to be leaning in Joe Biden's direction. The AP has not yet called this race.

The big picture: The final outcome of the presidential election is down to swing states that are too close to call, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Win or lose, President Trump will emerge more powerful than ever inside the GOP, by defying expectations for himself and lifting fellow Republicans to surprise victories in the House and Senate.

Why it matters: Trump enjoyed an almost messianic hold on Republicans before the election. Now, he looks like a prophet again, against the doomsday projections for his candidacy and his party’s congressional hopes.

Surprising GOP gains in House races Tuesday and the addition of women to their caucus appears to have cleared the field of challengers to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, House leadership sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: That clears the path for him to run for speaker of the House in 2022 if Republicans are successful in a push to retake the majority in the midterms.

A record number of Republican women ran for federal office this year and so far the GOP has boosted the number of women in the House by at least 10 members.

Why it matters: The new representatives reflect a big win for the Republican Party — and a payoff in their efforts to recruit women to run for office. Only 13 women held seats in the House in the 116th Congress; those numbers are now expected to be at least 23 (the AP has called at least 12 races and two of the current female representatives are retiring).

The 2020 general election — thus far — has ushered in a series of landmark wins across the U.S.

The state of play: Tuesday night's results, now rolling into Wednesday, highlight America's shifting political landscape.

Florida voters said yes to raising the state's minimum wage to $15 by 2026, making it the first state in the South and the eighth state in the U.S. to do so.

Why it matters: Its passage would ultimately affect 2.5 million Floridians, or one-quarter of the workforce over the next five years, per the Florida Policy Institute.

Republican gun-rights activist Lauren Boebert defeated Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, according to the Associated Press.

Why it matters: Boebert, a first-time candidate who defeated five-term GOP incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton in the state's June primary, has expressed support for the baseless QAnon conspiracy theory, saying in May she hopes it "is real."

Should Joe Biden ultimately win the White House, his climate agenda will almost certainly be limited — at least for the foreseeable future — to what he can pursue using executive powers.

The state of play: While several Senate races are outstanding, Democrats look unlikely to regain the majority in that chamber despite pickups in Colorado and Arizona, which aren't enough.

Texas went fairly comfortably red again, but it looked quite close for a while, and so now seems as good a time as any to look at the state's energy as well as political complexities.

The intrigue: Texas is increasingly no longer seen as only the oil patch, and it's a fascinating state to watch. That's especially the case at a time when the future of oil demand remains a question mark and more and more countries are vowing new steps on climate — regardless of U.S. policy.

33 pro sports venues were open as polling locations on Election Day, offering voters a more socially-distanced option to cast their ballots.

Venues by state: California (8), Texas (5), D.C. (3), Arizona (2), Indiana (2), New York (2), Maryland (2), Missouri (1), Colorado (1), Washington (1), Wisconsin (1), Pennsylvania (1), New Jersey (1), Ohio (1), Illinois (1), Utah (1).

Voters approved legalizing recreational marijuana use in several states, and Oregon decriminalized the possession of street drugs.

The big picture: New Jersey, Arizona, Montana and South Dakota will join the 11 states and D.C. that have already legalized cannabis for adult recreational use.

President Trump heads into the wild days ahead stronger than ever: However things ultimately shake out in the presidential race, he did way better than most expected and was a rare voice saying Republicans could gain ground in the House.

Why it matters: Few Republican officials defied him before. It's hard to see many, if any, standing up to him now. 

The Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have both been tied to bets on Trump's election prospects, saw wild swings on election night.

What it means: Few expect Joe Biden to significantly alter U.S. policy toward China if he ends up becoming president, but the Trump administration's increasingly hawkish tone on China in recent days helped move the Chinese currency significantly as betting markets moved in and out of Trump's favor.

Election night was a melee of massive market moves around the globe and whipsawing prices across asset classes, as just about every market was turned on its head and then upside-down again.

What happened: Most of the jostling came early in the evening as betting markets flipped from favoring a victory by Joe Biden to favoring one by President Trump around 7pm ET.

America faces tense, tumultuous, uncertain days ahead: President Trump says he won, even though he hasn't. Joe Biden says he's "on track" to win, even though it'll take days — or longer — to sort through a half-dozen nail-biters.

Why it matters: Now, whatever the resolution, close to half the country is going to feel robbed. Many of them will be angry, and will refuse to accept the winner as the legit president of all the people.

Four in 10 voters named the pandemic as their top issue in the presidential race, according to AP VoteCast. Another three in 10 said the economy and jobs were most important.

Why it matters: Voters were more likely to say that the government should focus on limiting the spread of the virus, even if it damages the economy, than to say the economy should be prioritized above all else.

Former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has defeated incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R) in Arizona's race for the U.S. Senate, AP projects.

Why it matters: It's a crucial pickup for Democrats in their bid to take control of the Senate, which has turned increasingly unlikely as the night has progressed.

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Maryland's Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, both centrists, have teamed up for a $1 million-plus national ad campaign, reviewed first by Axios, urging Americans to be patient and respect the electoral process following Tuesday's election.

Why it matters: With record levels of early voting and mail-in ballots and several races being too close to call, it could be several days before we know who the winner of the election is.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has won Arizona, claiming 11 electoral votes in one of the key swing states in the race for the presidency, AP projects.

Why it matters: Biden is the first Democrat to win Arizona, which Trump won by 3.5% in 2016, since 1996. The victory opens an easier path for Biden to reach 270 electoral votes.

Addressing an election party in the East Room of the White House early Wednesday morning, President Trump falsely and prematurely claimed victory in key swing states and pledged to go to the Supreme Court to stop votes from being counted.

Why it matters: As Axios previously reported, this was not spur of the moment.

Republican Sen. Steve Daines has defeated Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock in Montana's race for the U.S. Senate, AP projects.

Why it matters: It's a major loss for Democrats in their efforts to flip the Senate blue. Polls consistently showed Bullock and Daines as neck-and-neck, with Cook Political Report rating the race as a toss up.

What's the election story that’s forming in real time?

Niala Boodhoo talks to Axios’ White House and Politics Editor Margaret Talev in Washington, D.C. — and in New York, Jacob Weisberg, co-founder of Pushkin Industries and former editor in chief of the Slate Group.

Over 1,000 protesters rallied against President Trump at Black Lives Matter Plaza in Washington, D.C., and in several other U.S. cities, as the election outcome remained too close to call Tuesday night. But there were no reports of significant unrest, per AP.

The big picture: More than 100 million votes were cast early. But there was still a huge voter turnout on Election Day, with precautions against COVID-19 in place at polling centers. Here's what's been unfolding, in photos.

President Trump has won the state of Texas, AP projects — a disappointment for Democrats who had grown hopeful about flipping the historically red state.

Why it matters: Texas has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1976, though there has been a concerted effort to turn the state blue in recent years. Trump won Texas, which carries 38 electoral votes, by 9% in 2016.

Joe Biden addressed supporters at a drive-in rally in Delaware at 12:40 am ET on Wednesday morning, as the presidential race remained too close to call and ballots remained uncounted in critical swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

What they're saying: Biden said that his campaign believes they are "on track to win this election," but stressed that "it ain't over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted."

Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte has flipped Montana's governor seat red against state Lieutenant Gov. Mike Cooney (D), AP projects.

• Gianforte was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2016. He rose to national attention in 2018 after body-slamming a reporter. He later pleaded guilty to misdemeanor assault.

The big picture: Gov. Steve Bullock (D) was ineligible to run because of term limits and is now running for the U.S. Senate. The Cook Political Report rated Gianforte's race as a toss-up.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) has won re-election against Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield, AP projects.

Why it matters: Democrats had hoped to flip Ernst's seat in their bid to win control of the Senate.

President Trump has won the state of Florida, a key swing state in the race for the White House, AP projects.

Why it matters: Florida’s 29 electoral votes are central to any Trump path to re-election.

We talked with Axios' Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei about how Democrats and Republicans are interpreting the early results and the unknowns tonight.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has won Minnesota, a battleground state in the race for the presidency, AP projects.

Why it matters: Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes were on President Trump’s radar as a potential GOP pickup, despite Hillary Clinton winning the state by 1.5% in 2016. Biden had a lead of about 9% in the state the day before Election Day, according to FiveThirtyEight's average of polls.

Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) will advance to a January runoff election for one of two Senate seats up for grabs in Georgia, AP projects.

The state of play: Loeffler was able to see out a challenge from Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) in the special election between the two Republicans and Warnock, as well as 18 other less competitive candidates.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) has won re-election in New York's 14th Congressional District, AP projects.

Why it matters: Ocasio-Cortez in just one term has become the face of the progressive Democratic movement. She's often pushed issues in the Democratic-led House to the left, including co-sponsoring the Green New Deal.

Republican Tommy Tuberville has defeated incumbent Sen. Doug Jones (D) in Alabama's U.S. Senate race, AP projects.

Why it matters: Although expected, the win by Tuberville — a former college football coach — is important for Republicans, who are fighting to keep control of the Senate.

Sen. John Cornyn (R) has won re-election in Texas, warding off a competitive challenge from Democrat M.J. Hegar, AP projects.

Why it matters: Democrats had hoped to flip the seat in an effort to win back control of the Senate, in a year when many were optimistic about the party's chances in the increasingly purple Texas. Polls consistently showed Cornyn with a moderate lead, while Cook Political Report rated the race as "leans Republican."

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C) has won re-election against Democrat Jaime Harrison in a highly competitive and closely watched race for the U.S. Senate, AP projects.

Why it matters: Harrison raised massive amounts of money — including a record-breaking $57 million in Q3 — in his bid to unseat Graham, one of President Trump's closest allies in the Senate. Graham is chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and led the controversial push to confirm Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett a week before the election.

Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) has defeated incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in Colorado's Senate race, AP projects.

Why it matters: It's the first Senate seat that Democrats have flipped this election as they seek to take control of the upper chamber.

President Trump's former physician Ronny Jackson has defeated Democrat Gus Trujillo in Texas's solidly Republican 13th Congressional District, AP projects.

Why it matters: Jackson will replace retiring GOP Rep. Mac Thornberry. The former White House physician was nominated by Trump to run the Department of Veterans Affairs in 2018, but he withdrew from consideration amid allegations of workplace misconduct.

Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) has won the U.S. House race in Georgia's 14th Congressional District, AP projects.

Why it matters: Greene rose to national prominence for her public support of the far-right QAnon conspiracy theory, from which she has since attempted to distance herself.

Far-right conspiracy theorist and self-described "proud Islamophobe" Laura Loomer has lost her House race to Democratic incumbent Rep. Lois Frankel, AP reports.

Why it matters: Loomer has been banned from Facebook and Twitter over controversial statements, including anti-Muslim remarks about Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). While her candidacy gained national attention, Florida's 21st Congressional District, where she ran, is heavily Democratic.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has won re-election, AP projects.

Why it matters: McConnell's Democratic challenger Amy McGrath raised more than $88 million during the campaign, despite her long odds of unseating the Republican leader.