Axios

President Trump is increasingly likely to be impeached by the full House late this year or very early in 2020, on the eve of the first voting in presidential primaries and the official start of his reelection campaign.

Why it matters: This outcome, which seems more certain with each passing hour, means the presidential, Senate and House races will be consumed by impeachment.

Federal Election Commission Chair Ellen Wientraub took to Twitter on Friday night to share a memo about prohibited electoral activity by foreign nationals that she says a Republican commissioner blocked from being published in a public weekly digest.

Why it matters: Weintraub's decision to share the memo about foreign involvement in U.S. elections comes as a whistleblower alleges President Trump tried to pressure the Ukrainian government to investigate his 2020 rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. The complaint was referred by the director of national intelligence for investigation as a possible campaign finance violation, but was dismissed by the Justice Department. Its claims about Trump and Ukraine are now at the heart of an impeachment inquiry.

Trump adviser and Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman is disputing President Trump's claim, made during a private fundraiser, that they spoke about the Biden family, reports Bloomberg.

Why it matters: Trump's claims "could attract interest in light of the impeachment inquiry underway by House Democrats" — especially since it focuses on a conversation between Trump and Ukraine about investigating the Biden family, writes the Washington Post. Schwarzman has remained quiet about his conversations with Trump over the years.

Red state Democrats running for governor in the south may soon have to answer to the inevitable impeachment inquiry led by their own party in the House, AP reports.

Why it matters: Impeachment could easily nationalize campaigns in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana for Republicans, as red state Democrats try to stay under the radar, selling themselves to voters not by their party affiliation but on Trump-free issues.

Go deeper: The process of impeachment

Although three U.S. presidents have faced impeachment, none have been removed from office. Presidents Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were both impeached, but the Senate declined to remove them from office, and Richard Nixon stepped down before the House could vote.

How it works: Below is a graphic that explains the typical procedures for impeachment and removal from office.

Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) is the first House Republican to support an impeachment inquiry following a whistleblower's complaint that President Trump allegedly pressured Ukraine, reports the New York Times.

"Listen, I want to see what the process produces. And quite frankly, if there's something that rises to that level, then guess what, that's not something that we can have by a Democrat or a Republican."

The White House didn't just hide the Trump-Ukraine phone call, CNN reported last night — it also locked down transcripts with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Saudi royal family, including crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Why it matters: This aligns with the whistleblower complaint, which noted that White House officials said there was a pattern of hiding personally sensitive phone calls on systems designed to protect national security secrets.

U.S. envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker resigned on Friday, 1 day after the whistleblower report on President Trump and Ukraine was released, Arizona State University's student newspaper first reported and outlets including CNN confirm.

Why it matters: The whistleblower at the heart of a controversy over Trump and Ukraine said that Volker, along with U.S. Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland, met with Ukrainian officials a day after Trump's July phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. According to the whistleblower, Volker and Sondland provided Ukrainian officials with advice on how to "navigate" Trump's demands.

President Trump met with Wayne LaPierre, CEO of the National Rifle Association, on Friday to discuss how the gun advocacy group "could provide financial support for the president’s defense as he faces political headwinds, including impeachment," the New York Times reports.

Why it matters: "... in return for the support, Mr. LaPierre asked that the White House 'stop the games' over gun control legislation, people familiar with the meeting said," according to the NYT.

The House Intelligence Committee will return from the House recess for a closed hearing Oct. 4 featuring testimony from Michael Atkinson, the intelligence community inspector general who handled the whistleblower complaint over President Trump's actions on Ukraine, two committee sources told Axios. The committee later confirmed the hearing.

Why it matters: Atkinson is the inspector general who determined that the whistleblower complaint was an "urgent concern" that "appears credible." Atkinson is likely to be able to give the most detailed testimony on the issues raised by the complaint, short of the committee hearing directly from the whistleblower.

Federal Judge Dolly Gee on Friday blocked the Trump administration's attempt to keep migrant families detained long term.

Why it matters: This is the second time Gee has stopped the administration from trying to change or replace the Flores Agreement — a court order that prohibits detaining migrant children for longer than 20 days.

After this crazy week, it's increasingly hard to see how Democrats could back down from making Donald Trump the 3rd president in history to be impeached.

The big picture: Impeachment has been elevated from an activist issue to a dominant issue in the Democratic Party. House Democratic leadership is on board — even if they're still hedging on the process — and so are almost all of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.

Ukraine's president, political neophyte Volodymyr Zelensky, appears out of his depth after just 4 months in office, as his relations with President Trump have put him front and center in a political scandal rocking the U.S. and rippling across the globe.

Why it matters: Given the deep challenges facing Ukraine and Zelensky, Ukraine can hardly afford strained relations with the U.S. and European partners. Weakened Western ties would complicate efforts around democratic progress, economic growth and national security — particularly in pushing back against the malign influence of Vladimir Putin's Russia.

2020 Democratic contender Rep. Tulsi Gabbard backed an impeachment inquiry for President Trump on Friday, stating that her review of the whistleblower complaint, the memo of Trump's July call with Ukraine's president and Trump's comments over the past few days swayed her decision.

Why it matters: The Hawaii congresswoman's previous position had been an outlier amongst 2020 Democrats and Speaker Nancy Pelosi's caucus — and she had strongly spoken out against the idea just a few days ago. With Gabbard on board, all top 2020 Democrats now support impeachment in one form or another.

Go deeper: Where 2020 Democrats stand on impeaching Trump

October's Democratic primary debates hosted by CNN and the New York Times will be take place on a single night — Oct. 15 — with 12 candidates on stage.

Why it matters: Even as lower-tier candidates have been racing to reach the Democratic National Committee's higher qualification requirements, the crowded stage will further limit the field's ability to stand out. September's debate, which had 10 candidates on stage over 3 hours, only saw 2 candidates, frontrunners Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, get more than 15 minutes of speaking time, per the New York Times.

Human resources experts say the impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump and a potentially divisive 2020 election could make for tense work environments across the country, MarketWatch reports.

Why it matters: "Toxic" offices have already costed companies $223 billion over the last 5 years, according to the Society for Human Resources Management. An even more politically polarized country could further vex businesses struggling to maintain peace at the water cooler.

President Trump tweeted Friday that the "so-called Whistleblower isn't a Whistleblower at all," alleging without evidence that the whistleblower obtained their "second-hand information" from a "leaker" or "partisan operative."

"Sounding more and more like the so-called Whistleblower isn't a Whistleblower at all. In addition, all second hand information that proved to be so inaccurate that there may not have even been somebody else, a leaker or spy, feeding it to him or her? A partisan operative?"

More than 300 former national security officials have signed a letter supporting the impeachment inquiry into President Trump on allegations he pressured Ukraine.

"President Trump appears to have leveraged the authority and the resources of the highest office in the land to invite additional foreign interference into our democratic processes. That would constitute an unconscionable abuse of power. It also would represent an effort to subordinate America's national interests — and those of our closes allies and partners — to the President's personal political interest."

It was Joe Biden’s family that almost kept him from running. Now, it could help drag him down. 

Why it matters: The former vice president is answering questions about family controversies just as Elizabeth Warren is catching him in the polls.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Friday that she believes Attorney General Bill Barr has "gone rogue" with his handling of the controversy regarding the Trump administration's interactions with Ukraine.

Republicans are already treating the whistleblower's complaint the way they did the Mueller report: several Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham and Reps. Andy Biggs, Matt Gaetz, and Dan Crenshaw called the whistleblower’s credibility into question.

The tactics, per the AP's Jonathan Lemire and Zeke Miller: "Attempt to discredit government officials at the heart of the story. Dispatch Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani and other allies to muddy the picture. Lean on Republicans in Congress to provide cover."

The "tweet" button on President Trump's iPhone is moving markets and has become increasingly consequential for trillions of dollars of assets around the globe.

Why it matters: The markets don't trust Trump — nor his Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin — to be a calming influence in times of stress.

President Trump capped off UN week in New York on Thursday with what was intended as a private toast to UN Ambassador Kelly Craft and her staff, but which quickly became another dramatic episode in the fast-evolving Ukraine saga.

What he's saying: “I want to know, who’s the person that gave the whistleblower the information,” Trump said, according to audio leaked to the LA Times. “Because that’s close to a spy.”