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Monday's White House visit by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — billed as an opportunity to cooperate on energy, trade and security issues — has left Washington divided.

The big picture: Hungary is a NATO member and potential partner in countering threats from Russia and China. Yet under Orbán, the country has witnessed democratic backsliding that presents its own threats to transatlantic security. The meeting with President Trump could undermine U.S. leadership on democratic values and human rights.

Where it stands: Holding the upper hand in Central Europe would better position the Trump administration to prevent Russian efforts to divide NATO. The alliance would be endangered if Hungary became a Moscow proxy. 

President Trump can lean on ideological affinities with Orbán, who supported his campaign and shares his strident views on immigration. Hungarians hope Trump will join an anti-immigration alliance and bolster opposition to the UN’s global migration pact.

The meeting is also a chance to push back on Hungary’s deepening ties to China, including its embrace of Huawei — an issue Secretary of State Mike Pompeo raised in Budapest in February with Orbán and top officials.

Yes, but: Orbán’s politics skew authoritarian: He has repressed civil society and the media while fueling corruption, xenophobia and anti-Semitism. Trump's meeting with him lends legitimacy to his illiberal agenda.

Between the lines: The meeting takes place as Budapest clashes with the EU over Orbán's agenda — a fight that has reached the U.S. as well.

The European Parliament voted in September to trigger potentially punitive proceedings against Hungary, in response to policies of Orbán’s seen as contrary to EU values.

Orbán's political party, Fidesz, was suspended in March by the European People’s Party (EPP) for being undemocratic and undercutting the rule of law, in addition to having mounted an anti–EU campaign that targeted EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, a senior member of the EPP and George Soros.

U.S. lawmakers introduced a resolution in January condemning Orbán for "efforts to undermine democracy and violate human rights” that has support in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The bottom line: Trump’s meeting with Orbán is raising concerns in Washington and the capitals of U.S. allies across Europe. It may ultimately do little to halt Budapest’s growing ties with Moscow and Beijing, given the extents to which Orbán aligns with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping and has alienated European leaders.

Jonathan Katz is a senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

NATO interests and democratic values at stake in Trump-Orbán meeting

Budapest has been strengthening ties with Moscow and Beijing.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Photo: Attila Kisbenedek/AFP/Getty Images

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Viktor Orbán

Expert Voices

Monday&#x27;s White House visit by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — billed as an opportunity to cooperate on energy, trade and security issues — has left Washington divided.The big picture: Hungary is a NATO member and potential partner in countering threats from Russia and China. Yet under Orbán, the country has witnessed democratic backsliding that presents its own threats to transatlantic security. The meeting with President Trump could undermine U.S. leadership on democratic values and human rights.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Ukraine's president, political neophyte Volodymyr Zelensky, appears out of his depth after just 4 months in office, as his relations with President Trump have put him front and center in a political scandal rocking the U.S. and rippling across the globe.

Why it matters: Given the deep challenges facing Ukraine and Zelensky, Ukraine can hardly afford strained relations with the U.S. and European partners. Weakened Western ties would complicate efforts around democratic  progress, economic growth and national security — particularly in pushing back against the malign influence of Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Where it stands: Until this week's release of a transcript of his July 25 call with Trump, Zelensky had received largely positive marks from the West for advancing democracy and taking steps toward a peace settlement in Donbas, including a prisoner swap with Moscow that brought home 35 Ukrainians.

In return, the U.S., Europe and other partners have pledged continued support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in its efforts to rebuff Russia, tackle corruption and carry out needed reforms.

Background: Zelensky and his Servant of the People political party were handed the keys to the country by a frustrated Ukrainian electorate in the April 2019 elections and have since ridden an unprecedented wave of popularity.

Zelensky's mandate is to provide new leadership to tackle corruption, end the conflict in eastern Ukraine and advance Ukraine’s EU and NATO integration efforts.

What to watch: Ukraine has enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington, and diplomatic  support and assistance will likely continue, albeit with a more circumspect approach. Zelensky is similarly  expected to follow through on his commitment not to be involved in U.S. elections and to carry out proposed reforms.

In Europe, Zelensky will have to redouble his diplomatic efforts and outreach to allies stung by his comments in the transcript, particularly German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has led efforts to sustain Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia.

He will especially hope to count on Merkel and French president Emmanuel Macron, also singled out in the call, at next month's meeting of the Normandy Four — Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France — to discuss resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

After Trump-Zelensky scandal, Ukraine pressed to reset Western ties

U.S. and European support has helped fight corruption and resist Russian aggression.

Zelensky in front of a wall-mounted UN logo

Zelensky at the 74th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. Photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images

Ukraine

Ukraine&#x27;s president, political neophyte Volodymyr Zelensky, appears out of his depth after just 4 months in office, as his relations with President Trump have put him front and center in a political scandal rocking the U.S. and rippling across the globe.Why it matters: Given the deep challenges facing Ukraine and Zelensky, Ukraine can hardly afford strained relations with the U.S. and European partners. Weakened Western ties would complicate efforts around democratic progress, economic growth and national security — particularly in pushing back against the malign influence of Vladimir Putin&#x27;s Russia.

Macedonians will head to the polls this Sunday to vote on the historic Prespa agreement that could end a 27-year diplomatic impasse with Greece, which has refused to recognize the country's name since it declared independence in 1991. The agreement could also set the Balkan country on a long-desired path to NATO and EU accession. 

Why it matters: For Balkan countries seeking NATO and  EU membership, Macedonia’s success would signal that the door is open. By lighting a pathway to Euro-Atlantic integration, Washington and Brussels could also leverage a “yes” vote to promote democracy and stability in the region, while signaling to the Kremlin that its continued meddling won’t be tolerated. Either way, the referendum's outcome will have significant geopolitical implications for Europe and the U.S.

Under the agreement, the Republic of Macedonia would be renamed the Northern Republic of Macedonia. Here are the key players and what’s at  stake: 

For: Greek Prime Minister Tsipras and Macedonian Prime Minister Zaev lead support for their countries, with backing from the U.S., EU and NATO. Notably, President Trump has also lent his support, as did Secretary Mattis on a recent visit to the country.

Against: Unsurprisingly, Moscow opposes any prospects for NATO enlargement. The vote follows accusations from the U.S., the EU and others that Russia has taken active measure to undermine the referendum. This summer, Athens expelled two Russian officials for fomenting opposition to the agreement. Factions in both Greece and Macedonia, including Macedonia's nationalist party, also oppose any compromise and pledge to boycott the vote.

What to watch: A minimum of 50% of the electorate must go to the polls for the vote to be valid. If the referendum passes, Macedonia will need to embark on a series of steps to pave the way for NATO membership, including adoption by its parliament of the contentious constitutional change, and parliamentary ratification by Athens. If the agreement falls apart, so too will Macedonia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

Macedonia’s future hangs in the balance with naming referendum

It could set the country on a path to NATO and EU accession.

A 'Yes' vote poster is seen on the ground after a rally held by Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev during a final referendum rally

A vote 'Yes' poster after a final referendum rally held by Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev on September 27, 2018, in Tetovo, Macedonia. Photo: Chris McGrath via Getty Images

Macedonia

Macedonians will head to the polls this Sunday to vote on the historic <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Prespa agreement" data-vars-click-url="http://vlada.mk/node/15057?ln=en-gb" data-vars-content-id="a74c4c17-7c8c-478e-b2a0-cdf985e55dc2" data-vars-headline="Macedonia’s future hangs in the balance with naming referendum" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://vlada.mk/node/15057?ln=en-gb" target="_blank">Prespa agreement</a> that could end a 27-year diplomatic impasse with Greece, which <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="has refused to recognize the country&#x27;s name" data-vars-click-url="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42963058" data-vars-content-id="a74c4c17-7c8c-478e-b2a0-cdf985e55dc2" data-vars-headline="Macedonia’s future hangs in the balance with naming referendum" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42963058" target="_blank">has refused to recognize the country&#x27;s name</a> since it declared independence in 1991. The agreement could also set the Balkan country on a long-desired path to NATO and EU accession. Why it matters: For Balkan countries seeking NATO and EU membership, Macedonia’s success would signal that the door is open. By lighting a pathway to Euro-Atlantic integration, Washington and Brussels could also leverage a “yes” vote to promote democracy and stability in the region, while signaling to the Kremlin that its continued meddling won’t be tolerated. Either way, the referendum&#x27;s outcome will have significant geopolitical implications for Europe and the U.S.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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After Trump-Zelensky scandal, Ukraine pressed to reset Western ties

NATO interests and democratic values at stake in Trump-Orbán meeting

Macedonia’s future hangs in the balance with naming referendum