Axios

Many Republicans in Congress were shell shocked Wednesday when President Trump abruptly announced that he was pausing his sweeping reciprocal tariffs for every country except China.

Why it matters: For some GOP lawmakers, the lack of notice from the administration was part of a disturbing pattern that has left them struggling to display the kind of loyalty the president demands of his party.

First-class stamp prices could increase by 5 cents in July under a new United States Postal Service proposal announced Wednesday.

Why it matters: The proposed rate is the first of five planned price hikes planned through 2027.

After weeks of confusion and outcry, the Social Security Administration is backing off its announced drastic cuts to phone services.

Why it matters: The changes would've strained an already backlogged agency and possibly even kept eligible Americans from receiving benefits.

The past eight days have proven to be perhaps the highest-stakes study yet in how President Trump negotiates.

Why it matters: "Many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday, after the President announced a tariff pause.

With his new tariff announcement on Wednesday afternoon, President Trump has cemented his reputation for being unpredictable.

Why it matters: The markets like 10% tariffs more than they like the broad-brush application of a potentially erroneously calculated formula. But investors are still far from happy.

U.S. exports to China account for hundreds of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs — but that's all now caught up in a fast-escalating trade war.

Why it matters: If sky-high tariff rates announced Wednesday remain in place, many U.S. companies will no longer be able to compete in China's market.

President Trump blew up global trade and rattled the economy with huge, hotly disputed tariffs on major trading partners. Exactly one week later, he said never mind.

Why it matters: The new question for top CEOs and Wall Street traders is which of Trump's "burn-it-all-down" economic policies actually stick.

President Trump's decision to pause many of the sweeping tariffs he announced only a week ago comes after all corners of the MAGAverse soured on financial earthquakes the levies unleashed.

The big picture: The self-inflicted market meltdown rattled Trump's allies across Wall Street, Silicon Valley billionaires like Elon Musk, anxious congressional Republicans and even supportive podcasters in the Manosphere.

President Trump paused — on all countries but China — the sweeping reciprocal tariffs the U.S. had imposed this week.

Why it matters: Trump left a base tax of 10% in place across the world, in addition to duties on some industries, and has hinted that more are coming.

Stocks skyrocketed Wednesday afternoon after President Trump announced a pause on most tariffs.

Why it matters: The market had been on a stretcher since Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on nearly all foreign countries last week, bringing the S&P 500 to the brink of a 20% bear-market fall in a little over a month.

If markets learned one thing from the last week's White House tariff drama, it was that President Trump is still paying attention.

Why it matters: The "Trump put" that investors relied on in his first term — the notion that Trump would change policy if stocks or bonds had a bad reaction — looked like it might be dead in the second term. Until Wednesday.

The Trump administration's massive tariffs on China have Apple flying planes full of iPhones to the U.S. and consumers rushing to buy them before the prices potentially skyrocket.

Why it matters: The iPhone maker is one of many large companies caught up in an escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies. Most iPhones are assembled in China, and more than half of iPhone sales are in the U.S.

Elon Musk scored a big win Wednesday as President Trump paused most of the tariffs that had bludgeoned Tesla's stock and caused serious consternation in the broader market.

Why it matters: The Tesla CEO and Trump confidante had become increasingly public in his opposition to tariffs in recent days.

President Trump paused the sweeping reciprocal tariffs the U.S. imposed this week, saying dozens of countries had reached out to negotiate new trade deals.

Why it matters: It's the relief global markets, U.S. allies and many Trump advisers wanted, as fears of a global crisis mounted. But Trump didn't back off fully, keeping 10% baseline tariffs in place while increasing tariffs on China to 125%.

Walmart is tapping into generative AI to speed up how fast it rolls out on-trend fashion items, the company shared exclusively with Axios.

Why it matters: Speed matters in the highly competitive battle for consumers — especially with sweeping tariffs spiking fears of a recession.

China retaliated against President Trump's tariffs on Wednesday with a new 84% levy on exports from the U.S., threatening American jobs and industry that rely on the crucial trade partner.

Why it matters: There's very little modern precedent for one of the largest importers of U.S. goods throwing up such a giant barrier. The full scope of the consequences for the economy are not yet clear.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Wednesday said he expects a recession as President Trump's tariffs roil global financial markets.

Why it matters: Dimon's comments come amid a historic plunge in the bond market, part of what some strategists are calling a "sell America" trade.

Driving the news: Trump made good on his promise to charge reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries on Wednesday, on top of the baseline 10% tariffs the U.S. started collecting last Saturday.

DALLAS — Walmart officials pledged Wednesday to keep prices low despite uncertainty about the impact of President Trump's tariffs.

Why it matters: The world's largest retailer — whose brand is inextricably linked to low prices and affordability — is "not immune to some of the effects" in the short term, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is angling to use a key budget vote to crush Democrats' plan to force a vote on blocking President Trump's across-the-board tariffs.

Why it matters: The move could invite opposition from a cohort of free trade-minded GOP lawmakers who are increasingly uneasy with the White House's trade policies and the resulting stock market turmoil.

As robotaxi services begin to spread across America, ride-hailing drivers could worry that they'll be pushed aside in favor of robots — or at least that their incomes will shrink.

Why it matters: Like manufacturing, retailing and other industries, transportation is a prime target for automation.

Reality check: Cashiers aren't going away, and neither are factory workers or Uber drivers.

• Instead, they'll work alongside robots for the foreseeable future.

Driving the news: Uber and Lyft are starting to offer robotaxis as a ride option in select cities, joining Waymo, which is already in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix.

• In the beginning, these robotaxis will be confined to certain neighborhoods and will only operate in optimal conditions.
• But they'll help Uber and Lyft manage their networks more efficiently, such as during peak demand when prices often surge.
• Longer term, as technology advances and costs come down, robotaxis could also mean cheaper fares for riders.

By the numbers: Uber controls about 75% of the U.S. ride-hailing market; Lyft owns the rest.

• Drivers on both networks earn about $23 per hour, according to Gridwise Analytics, which collects driver data to track the gig economy.
• Uber drivers earn an average of $513 per week, while Lyft drivers gross $318.

Where it stands: So far, the presence of robotaxis in San Francisco, LA and Phoenix hasn't affected ride-hailing drivers much, Gridwise found.

• "Drivers are still working at the same pace, getting the same incentives, and taking as many trips as before," co-founder and CEO Ryan Green tells Axios.

The big picture: The hassles and costs of owning a car in urban areas have fueled the growth of ride-hailing platforms, especially among younger people.

• That growth is expected to accelerate sharply over the next 15 years, as more people turn to ride-hailing for their daily commutes instead of just occasional use, say forecasters at S&P Global Mobility.
• "Gen Z and Gen Alpha have a different mindset when it comes to mobility," Mario Franjicevic, a principal research analyst at the firm, tells Axios.
• "They don't own CDs or vinyl. They don't own DVDs. They subscribe to Netflix and Spotify. They will do the same with mobility. Owning a car is not a status symbol to them."
• By 2040, S&P Global Mobility is projecting 15 billion ride-hailing trips a year in the U.S., up from 3.6 billion in 2024.

The intrigue: About half of those trips will be in robotaxis; the other half will still be driven by humans.

Between the lines: Jeremy Bird, Lyft's executive vice president of driver experience, described three phases of the robotaxi transition in a recent blog post.

• Adoption: Robotaxis are still a novelty. There aren't enough of them to meet a city's transportation needs, and they can't operate in certain weather conditions or on certain roads. (That's where we are today.)
• Hybrid network: Some riders will select robotaxis, but others will still prefer a human driver for extra assistance or premium service.
• Lyft-ready network: Anyone's automated car can be deployed on the ride-hailing network to generate income when they're not using it. Entrepreneurial drivers could run an entire fleet of robotaxis on Lyft.

The bottom line: The ride-hailing pie is still growing, and robotaxis aren't going to eat it all.

The trade war is likely to cause fewer jobs and higher prices, a top Federal Reserve official tells Axios. But price hikes may not show up until the summer, as companies work through pre-tariff inventories.

Why it matters: Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin, in an exclusive interview, described a deep-seated uncertainty among businesses that is likely to slow activity — along with a surge in prices that requires the Fed to act cautiously in responding.

China and the European Union retaliated on Wednesday against President Trump's tariffs with new levies on more than $150 billion of U.S. exports.

Why it matters: The levies are the latest escalation stemming from Trump's trade war, which is deepening even as the U.S. says it's open to negotiations.

If the current level of tariffs remains in place, the U.S. appears likely to find itself in a recession.

• What's much less clear, however, is how severe such a recession would be, and therefore how much incentive the Trump administration has to try to avoid that outcome.

Why it matters: Even with the tariffs fully in place, any recession might be shallow enough — and early enough in the electoral cycle — for the White House to decide it's worth just riding it out.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday declined to rule out the possibility of delisting Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges, during an interview on Fox Business Network.

Why it matters: The trade war could bleed beyond tariffs.

Lerer Hippeau has raised $200 million for its ninth flagship VC fund, the firm tells Axios exclusively.

Why it matters: It's been 30 years since "Silicon Alley" was coined to describe New York City's tech scene, and 25 years since its development was bolstered by the formation of what would become Lerer Hippeau.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Wednesday said he expects there to be a recession and for defaults to rise as President Trump's tariffs roil global financial markets.

Why it matters: Dimon's blunt forecast puts a headline on the market's broad fears that Trump's trade war has already set in motion a lasting global crisis.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the economy was on steady footing, and played down the panic on display in financial markets as a result of the escalating global trade war.

Why it matters: The comments come hours after President Trump's reciprocal tariffs took effect, further unnerving investors worried that the economy might take a hit.

The price of U.S. Treasury bonds is plunging, in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday called "deleveraging convulsions." The effect is to raise borrowing costs just as recession fears spike.

Why it matters: The last thing America needed amid a global trade war and a stock market meltdown was a debt crisis, too. But that now seems to be a real possibility.

The volatility we've seen in the markets this week is not unprecedented, but it's extremely rare, and has happened only four previous times since 1978.

Why it matters: This kind of noise is a sign that we've now entered a world of radical uncertainty, and that the markets are finding it impossible to do their main job, which is price discovery.

When the going gets tough, Americans go shopping. With high tariffs about to engulf the country, they're doing it again.

Why it matters: Consumer spending is the engine that drives the U.S. economy.

President Trump's allies say his tariffs are helping Rust Belt cities make a comeback, casting the area as a beneficiary of the trade war.

Why it matters: Former industrial powerhouses like Pittsburgh once fueled America's growth — but economists say tariffs alone won't bring back the old steel economy that some want to recapture.

President Trump's global tariffs mean clothes at U.S. retailers stand to get a lot more expensive.

The big picture: With the U.S. importing nearly all of its clothing and shoes — more than half from China, Vietnam and Bangladesh alone — soaring apparel prices could send shoppers thrifting.

When President Trump imposed tariffs on China during his first term, U.S. importers paid the price, that we know (now). Exactly how those costs were passed on to U.S. consumers, though, is surprisingly less clear.

Why it matters: The key question for anyone in the U.S. who buys stuff — i.e., all of us — is who pays for Trump's latest tariff increases.

Backstabbing was rampant in President Trump's first White House. In Trump 2.0, it's front-stabbing:

• Trump's trade adviser, Peter Navarro, slights Elon Musk's car company on TV. Musk, a senior adviser to Trump, then calls Navarro a "moron" on social media.
• At the White House, staffers shrug and chuckle. "Boys will be boys," Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says.

After a day spent criss-crossing Los Angeles in a series of Waymo robotaxis, I can confidently say: I'm a convert.

Why it matters: Self-driving cars, which once seemed like science fiction, are now real, and hailing a driverless taxi is an increasing option in more cities via popular apps like Uber and Lyft or directly with Waymo.

President Trump's sweeping attempt to reorder the global economy went into effect early Wednesday, with historic tariffs on dozens of countries.

Why it matters: Trump says it'll revitalize the U.S. economy and bringing about a fairer global order. Economists and executives say it'll fracture global alliances and lead to a painful recession.

At least a dozen House Republicans are considering signing onto Rep. Don Bacon's (R-Neb.) bill to restrict the White House's ability to impose tariffs unilaterally, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It's a significant break with President Trump, who has threatened to veto the bill should it pass Congress.

President Trump on Tuesday ripped into Republican members of Congress who are trying to give Congress the ability to block him from unilaterally instituting tariffs.

Why it matters: The president's remarks during a speech to the National Republican Congressional Committee laid bare divisions within the GOP over the administration's hardline protectionist trade policies.

It's hard to think of a Senate duo further apart on President Trump's sweeping tariffs than Indiana Republican Sens. Todd Young and Jim Banks.

Why it matters: The divergent views from the state's two senators cast the broader divide in the GOP in sharp relief— the old guard free-traders vs. the party's new populist isolationists.

The Trump administration, which already closed a trade loophole that allowed cheap goods from China to avoid tariffs, is now tripling the planned levy.

Why it matters: Packages valued at less than $800 have enjoyed the "de minimis" exemption from added duties, which has enabled foreign online retailers like Temu and Shein to sell super-cheap items to American consumers.