Facing a crisis, Americans do their thing and shop

How it works: We don't yet have hard data to show that spending is ticking up, but anecdotally folks appear to be stocking up on imported goods — TVs! Cars! Wine! Yoga pants! — that will likely see price hikes with high tariffs.

• And some very early data from last week seem to confirm that something's going on.

Where it stands: Retailers are offering sales ahead of the tariffs. Media outlets are doing their thing and publishing listicles of what to buy.

• Bloomberg reported Apple stores were "slammed" with panic buyers.

By the numbers: Sales volume in "shelf stable" groceries rose after tariffs were announced last week, according to new data from Consumer Edge, which tracks spending through credit and debit card data from major retailers.

• Instant coffee sales rose 21%, ketchup 18% and beer 3%, compared to the previous week. Plus, the data showed transaction size increased across several retailers, including BJs, Costco and Target.
• "It really does seem like consumers are responding to (the tariffs) and trying to buy some stuff early," says Michael Gunther, head of insights at Consumer Edge.

Zoom in: President Trump's tariff announcement last Wednesday was the trigger, the Wall Street Journal reported. "Just like Tom Hanks getting Covid was the tipping point five years ago," Peter Atwater, an adjunct economics lecturer at William & Mary, told the paper.

• "It was just a simple rational decision," a man in Arlington, Virginia, who rushed to lock down a lease on a new car, told the Associated Press. "If this is what the government's going to do, I need to get my act together."
• After Trump's speech, Mark Cuban encouraged people to get out and buy everything, warning that retailers would take advantage of the moment to jack up prices on stuff not even subject to tariffs: "From toothpaste to soap, anything you can find storage space for, buy before they have to replenish inventory."

Flashback: Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, President George W. Bush encouraged spending, giving consumerism the sheen of patriotism, to show the terrorists Americans had resumed normal life.

• When the pandemic struck, Americans who were sent home from work did so much shopping they helped drive a demand shock, which was so strong it eventually turbocharged the recovery.

Between the lines: Robust spending can keep a recession at bay, as seen in 2022 when inflation was high but the job market was strong, and folks were able shop through it.

The other side: Recession and unemployment fears can reduce spending, as people hunker down with savings, hang on to their money in anticipation of riding out a storm, or lose their jobs and have to cut back their spending.

The bottom line: When Trump announced massive tariff increases last week, he was effectively waving a "buy now" sign to U.S. consumers, and they seem to be on the case.