Trump's reciprocal tariff threat raises huge unknowns

• It reignites "will he, won't he" trade uncertainty, leaving companies guessing.

The intrigue: What looks like an opening salvo might be an effort to extract what the White House considers more favorable trade conditions, though Trump said on Thursday that the tariffs would help raise government revenues.

• Early calculations by one Wall Street analyst show the reciprocal tariffs would raise "minimal" revenue for the U.S.
• Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick said the study might be ready by April 1, and Trump could move to impose tariffs thereafter. Lutnick added countries might also lower their tariffs, which would cut costs for consumers.

The details: Trump's reciprocal tariffs would apply to foreign nations that charge higher tariffs on U.S. goods than the U.S. charges on the foreign nation's goods.

• There was no detail on which countries will be subject to the tariffs or if they will be limited to specific products. There was also no word on when the tariffs will definitively take effect.
• A factsheet released by the White House calls out a few examples, including India's tariffs on U.S. motorcycles and Brazil's tariff on ethanol.

• Targeting those countries' exports to the U.S. could affect the prices of a wide variety of goods, from paper and coffee to diamonds and cars.
• "Prices could go up somewhat short term, but prices will also go down," Trump said during a press conference in the Oval Office.

What to watch: Trump said the administration would consider Europe's value-added tax "to be the same as a tariff," raising the prospect of a trade battle with the continent.

• He also said he expects tariffs to raise a "staggering amount" of revenue.