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National

The stock market made some gains Monday, but still ended the year with its worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis, AP reports. The S&P 500 was down 6.2% at the end of the year, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 5.6%.

Between the lines, per Axios' Courtenay Brown: The crisis-era comparison sounds scary, but this is a very different market than it was in 2008, when the S&P fell 35%. The Dow and the S&P 500 also had the worst year since 2008 back in 2015. Look how well the stock market has done since then.

Stock market ends worst year in a decade

It sounds grim, but this is a very different market than it was in 2008.

Stock traders work on the last day of 2018

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Business

Stock market

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

NASA's New Horizons spacecraft is on track to make space exploration history just 33 minutes into 2019 Eastern time, scientists said Monday. That's when it's expected to pass just 2,200 miles away from a tiny object known as Ultima Thule, located about 4 billion miles from Earth in a region of space known as the Kuiper Belt. 

Why it matters: The flyby may give scientists new and vital insights into how the solar system and planets like Earth first formed. This is the first time scientists have ever closely studied a Kuiper Belt object, and scientists said Monday the flyby is proceeding according to plan but without a guarantee of success.

“We are straining at the capabilities of this spacecraft, and by tomorrow we’ll know how well we did,” said Alan Stern, New Horizons' principal investigator, at a press conference.

What to watch: Scientists will have to wait until New Year's Day to learn whether their efforts were successful, as the spacecraft is on autopilot, using commands sent hours ago due to the distance.

Researchers say they know a very limited amount about Ultima Thule, whose nickname means "beyond the known world." That lack of advance knowledge makes it a particularly tantalizing target. 

“We hardly know anything about it,” said Stern. “That’s all going to change, and it’s going to change this week.”

The backstory: Scientists believe Ultima Thule has been frozen in time since the solar system first formed about 4.6 billion years ago.  

The Kuiper Belt, where Ultima Thule is located, is a region of icy bodies beyond the orbit of Neptune that are thought to be leftovers from the solar system's early days. 

There are thought to be hundreds of thousands of objects like Ultima Thule in the Kuiper Belt, and the spacecraft will attempt to gather data on others to learn more about them, and how Ultima Thule might differ from them.

"It's a very special region that we're very excited to explore," said John Spencer, a deputy project scientist with the Southwest Research Institute.

The details: The flyby is requiring scientists to stretch the capabilities of the New Horizons spacecraft, which gathered unprecedented data on Pluto in 2015 after launching in 2006. Ultima Thule, for example, is about 80 times smaller than Pluto. 

New Horizons is traveling at about 32,000 miles per hour. 

It has been programmed to pass just 2,200 miles away from Ultima Thule, taking pictures and gathering data with its 7 different instruments on board.

"We only get one shot at it. Nothing like it has ever been done before."

Alan Stern, Principal Investigator with New Horizons

We're likely to see the first photo on New Year's Day. More images and data from the spacecraft will flow back to Earth during the course of the week and beyond, given the roughly six hours required to transmit data one way at 1,000 bits per second across 4 billion miles, Stern said. 

The knowns: Scientists know the general size of Ultima Thule, which is on the order of about 15 to 20 miles in diameter, and would be able to fit between Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. They also think it's reddish in color. 

The unknowns: Researchers are particularly interested in finding out more about the object's geological makeup, how it compares with other Kuiper Belt objects, whether it's releasing any gases and if it has small satellites nearby. 

How to watch: To follow along with the mission, watch a livestream from Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, and monitor its social media accounts. Events will also stream online via NASA.

Editor's note: This piece has been corrected to show that the flyby distance between New Horizons and Ultima Thule will be close to 2,200 miles (not 22,000 miles). 

NASA is about to make space exploration history

The spacecraft could reveal how the early solar system and large planets, including Earth, formed.

Just over 24 hours before its closest approach to Kuiper Belt object Ultima Thule, the New Horizons spacecraft has sent back the first images that begin to reveal Ultima's shape. 

The New Horizons spacecraft sent back the first images that begin to reveal Ultima's shape. Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute

Science

Space

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

We made a lot of charts in 2018! From volcanos to midterms, here are 10 of our favorites:

The long odds against gun legislation in Congress

Black Panther soars past Titanic, Last Jedi and Jurassic World

Here's every volcano that has erupted since Krakatoa

Kennedy's shift to the left of the Supreme Court

How the special elections could predict the midterms

Most campaign contributions come from outside candidates' districts

11 million U.S. workers are in the trade war's crosshairs

Hurricane Florence: Keep tabs on shifting storm track

All the planets we've found in the Milky Way — so far

Corporate America leans GOP in 2018 midterms

Our favorite data viz projects from 2018

U.S. News

Data graphics

President Trump thoroughly upended the global trading system in 2018, slapping tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of imports as he pledged to "put America first" and renegotiate more favorable trade deals for the U.S. around the world.

The big picture: At their peak, Trump's trade wars were fought on three main fronts: Europe, North America and China. Since then, the president has agreed to a handshake ceasefire with the EU and successfully renegotiated NAFTA with Canada and Mexico, pending congressional approval. That leaves the spat with China — temporarily on hold until March 1 — as Trump's most expensive and high-stakes trade challenge heading into 2019.

Trump took his first steps to target Chinese manufacturing in January 2018 by imposing a 30% tariff on solar panels and a 20% tariff on washing machines. He followed it up with three more rounds of tariffs on a range of Chinese products, amounting to $34 billion worth of goods in July, $16 billion in August and $200 billion in September.

China retaliated for each round of Trump's tariffs, enacting a total of $110 billion in tariffs applied exclusively to the U.S. Its 25% tariff on soybeans had a particularly harmful effect on American farmers, many of whom are concentrated in Trump's rural voter base and have received $12 billion in federal aid as compensation. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day trade war ceasefire at the G20 summit on Dec. 1.

In March, Trump announced his intention to impose a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum, which hit Canada, America's top source of both steel and aluminum imports, especially hard. Canada, Mexico and the EU were temporarily exempt, but became subject to the tariffs on May 31.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker met with Trump in July and agreed to hold off on future tariffs as the two sides continue to negotiate a new deal. 

Trump had long promised to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA, calling it "the worst trade deal ever signed" because of its impact on American manufacturing and the U.S. trade deficit. He successfully did so in October, with the rebranded United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement including updates to issues like intellectual property and the digital economy.

NAFTA: Trump said in December that he intends to formally withdraw from NAFTA, a move that would give Congress six months to approve the renegotiated deal or revert to pre-NAFTA trade terms. The USMCA must also be approved by the Canadian and Mexican legislatures.

Europe: Trade talks seem to have been placed on the back burner for now. Trump has privately considered the threat of auto tariffs as leverage in negotiations, but European officials have warned that such a move would result in retaliation by the EU and effectively kill any chance for a deal.

China: The trade war between the world's two largest economies is on hold until March 1, at which point it may come roaring back. Negotiators have reportedly agreed to meet for face-to-face discussions in January.

Special report: A new era of global trade wars

The winners and losers (mostly losers) in a U.S.-China trade war

Just how much steel and aluminum are we talking about?

Correction: A previous version of this article said that Trump has formally notified Congress of his withdrawal from NAFTA. He has said he intends to do so, but has not officially.

Steel, soybeans and NAFTA 2.0: A year of Trump's trade wars

President Trump thoroughly upended the global trading system in 2018.

Illustration of Trump hiding in the water watching cargo ships

Politics

Trump trade war

World

Latin America and Latinos

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked President Trump for a gradual pullout of U.S. forces from Syria — implemented over a lengthy period of time — in their Dec. 20 phone call, an Israeli official told reporters who traveled with Netanyahu to Brazil for the inauguration of Brazilian President-elect Jair Bolsonaro.

The big picture: Israel is concerned that a rapid U.S. withdrawal will embolden and encourage Iran to continue its military entrenchment in Syria. The official's statement echoed what Trump tweeted earlier Monday about U.S. forces "slowly" coming home from Syria. 

Israel was updated about Trump's Syria decision several days before the official announcement, according to the official, who added that Netanyahu spoke twice with Trump before and after the announcement and twice with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. In addition, the IDF's chief of staff, Gadi Eizenkott, spoke several times over the last two weeks with Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Netanyahu will meet with Pompeo on Tuesday in Brasilia to further discuss the issue. After returning to Israel, Netanyahu will meet national security adviser John Bolton for dinner at his residence on Sunday and another working meeting next Monday. The Israeli official said Netanyahu is also planning on attending the World Economic Forum in Davos at the end of January and wants to meet Trump, who is also planning to attend.

Netanyahu is set to discuss Israeli policy in Syria both during and after the planned U.S. pullout with Pompeo and Bolton. The Israeli official said, "We are going to continue the airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria regardless of the U.S. policy. We have shown this already, and it is a message to the Iranians that we are not going to back down."

Go deeper: Netanyahu rejected Russian plan to work with U.S. on Syria, Iran

Netanyahu asked Trump for a gradual pullout from Syria

Israel is worried the U.S. departure could embolden Iran.

Netanyahu on the phone with potential voters during the 2013 Israeli elections. Photo: Uriel Sinai/Getty Images

Syria

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Sen. Elizabeth Warren became the most prominent Democratic candidate to launch an exploratory committee for president on Monday, joining former HUD Secretary Julián Castro and several other Democrats who have already announced their intent to challenge President Trump in 2020.

The big picture: Presidential campaigns weren't always this lengthy, with Bill Clinton announcing his bid just 13 months before the 1992 election, the New York Times notes. But since then, it's become somewhat standard for major candidates to declare early — sometimes even a full two years before the election. 

2016: Jeb Bush announced he would "actively explore" a run 23 months before the 2016 election, while Ted Cruz officially announced 20 months before. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton officially announced her run in April 2015, and Donald Trump kicked off his campaign in June.

2012: Republican candidates waited to challenge President Obama until 20 months before the election, with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty declaring in March 2011. He was followed by Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who formed an exploratory committee in April.

2008: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack announced his bid a full two years ahead of time — during the week of the 2006 midterms. John McCain did the same later that November, while Democratic contenders Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both announced in January 2007.

2004: Democratic nominee John Kerry was the first to announce he would challenge President George W. Bush, launching an exploratory committee 23 months before the election.

2000: Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone really jumped the gun, forming an exploratory committee 31 months before the 2000 election in April 1998. Vice President Al Gore did the same on New Year's Day in 1999, followed by Bush two months later.

Go deeper: The Democrats' 2020 crowd jumps the gun

The 2020 presidential race is kicking off right on schedule

Since 2000, this is the time that major contenders have started jumping in.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Presidential campaigns

Once Democrats assume control of the House on Thursday, they plan to pass a stopgap spending bill that would fund the Department of Homeland Security through Feb. 8 without President Trump's requested funding increase for a border wall, per the Washington Post.

The big picture: They also plan to pass 6 other funding bills to fund closed portions of the federal government through Sep. 30. The DHS funding bill is the same as the one passed by the Senate before Christmas and, if again approved by a Senate with an increased GOP majority, could force a direct showdown with Trump on the border wall issue.

House Democrats unveil plan to reopen government

They don't want to give President Trump his border wall cash.

Government shutdown

Bloomberg's Billionaire Index has reported its year-end findings, with Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos declared the billionaire winner of 2018, and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg declared the biggest loser.

Details: Bezos added $24 billion, increasing his net worth to $123 billion, although it was much higher before the year-end stock market rout. Zuckerberg's net worth fell nearly $20 billion to a total of $53 billion.

2018's biggest billionaire winner and loser

Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos. Photos: Getty Images

Axios

Monday's top stories

Stock market ends worst year in a decade

NASA is about to make space exploration history

Our favorite data viz projects from 2018

Steel, soybeans and NAFTA 2.0: A year of Trump's trade wars

Netanyahu asked Trump for a gradual pullout from Syria

The 2020 presidential race is kicking off right on schedule

House Democrats unveil plan to reopen government

2018's biggest billionaire winner and loser

Epic year: Living history in 2018

The global disasters that have been deferred to 2019

The verdict on 2018: "Great" for me, "worrisome" for country

Don't be surprised if it's not a wall