The House districts with the closest races in the midterm elections tend to be more educated than the rest of the country. Of the 30 districts currently rated as "tossups" by Cook Political Report, two thirds have a higher prevalence of college degrees than the national average.
Why it matters: It's yet another sign of potential midterm trouble for Republicans, since 28 of those races have a Republican incumbent and President Trump did best with people without college degrees. Strategists from both parties think it'll come down to how suburban voters react to Trump.
The backstory: A Pew survey in March 2018 showed that Trump's approval was highest among those who had never been to college, and a FiveThirtyEight analysis in November 2016 found that Hillary Clinton excelled in higher-educated counties.
What they're saying:
Democratic operatives say Trump is toxic in the suburbs, and they believe their message of standing up to Trump performs best with educated voters.
Republican strategists, however, believe most of the voters in these districts are still Republicans, and that they'll vote to stick with GOP policies regardless of how they feel about Trump's rhetoric.
How the special elections could predict the midterms
Notes: Pennsylvania's Congressional districts were redrawn by the state's supreme court in March 2018. This map reflects the updated boundaries and adjusted PVI. Data: Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index, Ballotpedia; Map: Chris Canipe/Axios
GOP candidates have a lot more cash in toss-up races
Republicans in 14 toss-up races are crushing Democrats on the money front.
Why it matters: You hear a lot about Democratic candidates out-raising their Republican challengers (which matters!), but available cash is important because that can keep up the pressure on opponents with organizing and ads into the final days of the election.
