Axios

The S&P 500 notched its best first-quarter performance in five years, per CNBC.

• The index is up 10.2% so far.

👨🏻‍⚖️ SBF's jail time is set to be "nothing like a country club." (Axios)

🎒Harvard applications fell 5% from a year ago following a tumultuous period that included its president's resignation and a Supreme Court defeat. (Bloomberg)

🎞️ "Oppenheimer" opened in Japan today after an eight-month delay "to generally favorable reaction." (WSJ)

"It is well past time for this talented reporter and innocent man to come home."

Which is more important: that the general trajectory of inflation over the last year remains downward, or that price gains tick up substantially in the first two months of 2024?

Why it matters: Your answer determines whether you view the latest inflation data as a bump in the road to be ignored or as a warning sign that markets and policymakers alike have gotten overly complacent about the risk of inflation getting stuck at an unacceptably elevated level.

Major cruise lines are diverting upcoming cruises from the Port of Baltimore to Norfolk, Va., after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

Why it matters: The Port of Baltimore has halted vessel traffic, including cruise ships, indefinitely as crews work to clear debris and a cargo ship that is blocking the channel.

An inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed price pressures eased last month alongside a rebound in consumer spending, the government said Friday.

Why it matters: The data suggests more benign inflation compared to the start of the year, but the indicator shows it is still above the Fed's target — the latest sign that crushing inflation will be a rocky process.

Getting over high inflation looks to take even longer than, say, recovering from a romantic breakup.

Why it matters: That's one conclusion to be teased out from a new study, presented at the Brookings Institution Thursday, and helps explain why the national mood about the economy is still fairly grim, even as inflation has fallen over the past year.

A new raft of AI-powered startups wants to disrupt the financial advice industry. Their pitch: Pay a flat fee once in a while when you need advice, rather than a percentage of your assets every single year.

Why it matters: Most Americans under the age of 55 don't need or even particularly want regular hand-holding and check-ins with a financial advisor. A well-constructed financial plan can easily last years until circumstances arise that require a new one.

A federal judge slapped Sam Bankman-Fried with a 25-year sentence today for his role in bankrupting cryptocurrency platform FTX and defrauding its customers, completing his downfall from quirky billionaire philanthropist to felon.

Why it matters: Judge Lewis Kaplan chose a much harsher sentence for the disgraced crypto mogul than the defense's request of five to seven years, Axios Crypto's Brady Dale writes.

• In pre-sentencing comments, Kaplan ripped the disgraced entrepreneur for his "apparent lack of any remorse."
• "He knew it was wrong, he knew it was criminal, he regrets he made a very bad bet about the likelihood of getting caught," Kaplan said.

Consumers are feeling the pinch of inflation this year with skyrocketing cocoa prices reaching new heights, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.

Why it matters: Cocoa prices topped $10,000 per metric ton for the first time this week.

The big picture: Consumers are expected to spend $3.1 billion on candy this year, down from $3.3 billion for the holiday in 2023, the National Retail Federation's annual holiday survey found.

Go deeper

🏀 A-Rod and Marc Lore's Timberwolves deal fell apart. (Axios)

🚘 Xiaomi released an electric car $4K cheaper than Tesla's Model 3. (CNBC)

📈 U.S. 2023 GDP checked in at a healthy clip. (Bloomberg)

ESG investing is dead. Long live ESG investing, Axios' Javier E. David writes.

Driving the news: A Pitchbook analysis of the often derided environmental, social and governance investing trend paints a mixed picture of what some critics have denounced as "woke capitalism."

• Pitchbook notes that asset managers are retreating from ESG commitments — at least in public.
• But it also found others are leaning into it as a method of "value creation and protection … in the challenging macroeconomic environment."

Zoom in: Pitchbook's study found that programs were being downplayed in favor of more silent support for ESG (known as "greenhushing" in certain circles).

Dealmakers picked up their pace at the end of 2023, but apparently, their destination was a rusty vat of molasses, Axios ProRata's Dan Primack writes.

Driving the news: Global M&A activity fell more than 20% between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, according to preliminary data from LSEG.

• The downturn didn't discriminate by geography, with declines in the U.S., Europe and Asia-Pacific.
• The only silver lining was a 33% dollar increase over Q1 2023, although that had been the slowest first quarter in a decade.

What's happening: Buyers think prices are too high.

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"My job is to stand out of the way and hire really good people."

Immigrants started new businesses last year at more than double the rate of U.S.-born citizens, according to a recent analysis.

Why it matters: Entrepreneurship can lead to financial success for immigrants, especially those who lack legal status to work. They in turn help fuel the nation's economic growth.

Here's what's new on Max, Peacock, Hulu, Netflix, Apple TV+, Prime Video and Disney+.

What we're watching: New documentaries about a rehab program turned religious movement and comedians including Jerrod Carmichael, Steve Martin and Mike Birbiglia.

One year after a massive bank run led to Silicon Valley Bank's failure, top banking scholars have ideas for how to contain the risks of a new era in which customers can yank deposits with a tap on their phone.

Why it matters: Last year's regional bank failures showed how quickly customers can pull funds in response to fast-moving information, a key cause of the collapses of SVB and First Republic Bank.

First nickel, now cocoa. The commodities world is again being rocked by a short squeeze.

Why it matters: Just as with nickel in 2022, arcane financial contracts are taking on a life of their own and hurting those you'd think the price spike would help — companies that own large amounts of cocoa.

Boeing's largest union is in contract talks with the beleaguered airplane company for the first time in more than a decade — and it's seizing the moment to push for cultural change.

Why it matters: The negotiations are taking place amid a full-blown corporate crisis, giving the union incredible leverage.

The Easter Bunny — and consumers — are feeling the pinch of inflation this year with skyrocketing cocoa prices reaching new heights.

Why it matters: Cocoa prices surpassed $10,000 a ton for the first time this week.

The stunning collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge on Tuesday will have economic impacts far beyond the city of Baltimore.

The big picture: The Port of Baltimore, one of the busiest in the U.S., has halted vessel traffic indefinitely in the wake of the bridge's collapse — which is expected to affect the flow of commerce in the U.S.