The U.S. believes that Russia may use joint military exercises inside Belarus as cover for an invasion of Ukraine from the north, according to a senior State Department official.
Why it matters: New deployments to the Belarus-Ukraine border in the coming weeks — in addition to the 100,000 Russian troops already encircling Ukraine from the north, east and south — could allow Russia to open up a new front less than 100 miles from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on Friday, following a trip to Kyiv to reinforce U.S. support for Ukraine in the face of a possible Russian invasion, according to a senior U.S. official.
Why it matters: The meeting with Lavrov suggests a diplomatic resolution to the crisis may still be on the table, despite the collapse of security talks between Russia and the West last week.
Two lawmakers are urging the federal government to ensure state governments are not procuring telecommunications equipment from Chinese companies deemed a security risk, according to a letter viewed by Axios.
The big picture: Governments around the world are struggling to determine which Chinese tech companies may pose security risks, and how to extricate those products and services from sensitive telecommunications infrastructure.
In a new book, former Hong Kong lawmaker Nathan Law connects his experiences as a pro-democracy activist in Hong Kong with China's attempts to curb freedoms around the world.
Why it matters: "It’s really important that we see Hong Kong as part of the puzzle in a bigger picture of democratic recession, so we can equip ourselves more as China expands its authoritarianism around the world," Law told Axios in an interview.
NATO will consider an attack against a member country's assets in space as an assault on the alliance, and such actions could lead to a coordinated armed response from all members if necessary, according to NATO's first formal, public space policy released Monday.
Why it matters: The policy reflects the increasing importance of space to more countries. It also normalizes NATO's intentions in space as China, Russia, India and other countries push forward on their science and military ambitions in orbit and beyond.
At least three people are confirmed to have died in Tonga following the undersea volcanic eruption that sent tsunami waves toward the island nation and across the Pacific over the weekend, officials said Tuesday.
The big picture: Officials reported major damage along the western coast of the main island of Tongatapu, where the capital, Nuku'alofa, was covered in ash and dust, including on the runway of the airport. Officials in Tonga confirmed three deaths in the country's first official statement since the crisis began.
A bipartisan group of seven U.S. senators met Monday in Kyiv with President Volodymyr Zelensky and other top officials as Ukraine and the West brace for the possibility of an imminent Russian invasion.
Why it matters: The delegation is seeking to project a united front with Ukraine, following a divisive Senate vote on Thursday in which Democrats blocked sanctionsZelensky's government was seeking against the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The first images are emerging of the damage to Tonga's islands, which were hit by a volcanic eruption and tsunami waves over the weekend.
The big picture: At least three people were confirmed to have died in Saturday's disaster. Satellite images shared by the UN Satellite Center on Monday and Maxar Technologies on Tuesday underscore what officials on the ground are reporting: There's major damage on the main island of Tongatapuatu, where ash and dust are hindering relief efforts.
An earthquake struck western Afghanistan on Monday — killing at least 26 people, officials said, per AFP.
Details: The 5.3 magnitude quake caused fatalities in the Qadis district in the western province of Badghis after roofs collapsed, province spokesperson Baz Mohammad Sarwary told the news agency.
All athletes, including those from foreign countries, must be vaccinated to compete in events held in France, French sports minister Roxana Maracineanu announced Monday after lawmakers adopted a new coronavirus law Sunday.
Why it matters: It's unclear what the mandate will mean for Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic's ability defend his French Open title in May. Djokovic just left Australia after an appeals court in the country revoked his visa for being unvaccinated.
Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah Bin Zayed asked Secretary of State Tony Blinken in a phone call Monday to re-designate the Houthi rebels in Yemen as a terrorist organization, a senior Emirati official told Axios.
Why it matters: Less than a month after he assumed office, President Biden rolled back the Trump administration’s decision to make the designation. He said it hampered humanitarian assistance to the Yemeni people. Since then, the Houthis have escalated their attacks against Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region — including an attack Monday in Abu Dhabi.
The Greek government on Monday said that anyone 60 and older will be required to get a vaccine or face a fine.
State of play: Older people who are not inoculated will pay fines starting at around $57 in January followed by a monthly fine of approximately $114 after that if they choose to remain unvaccinated, AP reports.
The International Olympic Committee announced Monday that it will no longer sell tickets to the general public for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics because of "the current situation of the COVID-19 pandemic."
Why it matters: Beijing reported its first case of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the virus over the weekend, just weeks before the city begins hosting the games on Feb. 4.
Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Unilever and Ikea were among over 70 brands on Monday to issue a joint statement calling for a global treaty to fight plastic pollution that would include reducing production of the material.
Why it matters: The United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA 5.2) that begins next month will see government officials gather to begin talks next month on a treaty on plastic pollution — "a key growth area for the oil industry," per Reuters.
The world's 10 wealthiest men have increased their fortunes from $700 billion to $1.5 trillion since early 2020, per a report published Wednesday.
Why it matters: "The incomes of 99% of humanity are worse off because of COVID-19," according to the report, published by anti-poverty charity Oxfam ahead of the World Economic Forum's pandemic-delayed Davos Agenda, which begins Monday.
France's National Assembly voted 215-58 on Sunday in favor of pandemic legislation that includes a vaccine pass barring unvaccinated people from venues including restaurants and sports arenas, per Euronews.
North Korea's military fired "two suspected short-range ballistic missiles" eastward from Pyongyang on Monday morning local time, per South Korean and Japanese officials.
Why it matters: The fourth such launch since Jan. 5 comes days after North Korea's military warned of "stronger" action if the U.S. moved to have more sanctions imposed on the country.
