Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told U.S. senators visiting Kyiv this week that waiting to impose sanctions on Russia until after an invasion is of no use to Ukraine, according to four sources familiar with the discussions.
Why it matters: The Senate is currently working on a major sanctions package to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine. Democrats and Republicans are united in their support for Ukraine, but divided over whether it would be more effective to sanction Russia now to signal resolve, or hold up the threat of future sanctions to demonstrate the high costs of an invasion.
U.S. envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking traveled to the Gulf on Wednesday in the aftermath of an attack by Houthi rebels that killed three people in Abu Dhabi.
Why it matters: Lenderking's trip was previously planned but became much more urgent after the attack threatened new escalation in the fighting in Yemen and more broadly in the region. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also spoke Wednesday with Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed.
RAMALLAH, West Bank — The Palestinian Authority hopes to put the stifling fiscal crisis it faced in 2021 behind it, but that will depend in large part on a pledge from the European Union.
Why it matters: The U.S., EU, Israel and the PA itself all fear that failing to pay public sector salaries could trigger the Palestinian government's collapse.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's opposition leader and former prime minister, is negotiating a possible plea deal over the corruption charges against him, but Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit appears to be toughening his terms.
Why it matters: Mandelblit leaves office on Jan. 31. Negotiations could continue beyond that point, but the next attorney general may be less interested in quickly reaching a deal.
To get a deal, Iran will have to either accelerate its pace at the negotiating table or slow down the pace of its nuclear program to buy more time for diplomacy, a senior U.S. official involved in the Vienna nuclear talks tells Axios.
Why it matters: Biden administration officials have set the end of January or beginning of February as an unofficial deadline for the talks, in large part because they believe Iran's nuclear advances will soon render the 2015 deal ineffective.
The family of Otto Warmbier, an American student who was detained in North Korea for 17 months and died in 2017 shortly after being returned to the U.S. in a coma, was awarded more than $240,000 in seized assets from Pyongyang, a New York federal court ruled.
Why it matters: The payment is part of a $500 million wrongful death lawsuit, in which Warmbier's family alleged that North Korea took him hostage, tortured him and was responsible for his death.
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson could be ousted from power within the week, after a longtime ally compared him to Neville Chamberlain in a stunning rebuke in the House of Commons on Wednesday.
Driving the news: Johnson is under immense pressure from the public and his own Conservative Party over allegations that he lied about lockdown-breaking parties in his Downing Street home.
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett proposed a Russia-Ukraine summit in Jerusalem to Russian President Vladimir Putin in their meeting last October, Ukrainian and Israeli officials tell me.
Why it matters: Israel is one of the few countries that has good relations with both Kyiv and Moscow and is able to pass messages between them. The Ukrainian side first broached the idea of a summit in Israel with former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last spring when Russia was massing troops on the border, but it never gained much traction.
NASA scientists estimate that the power of Tonga's volcanic eruption over the weekend was equivalent to 5-6 megatons of TNT.
Threat level: Saturday's eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano and subsequent tsunami killed at least three people. Scientists warn an "ash-seawater cocktail" poses a potentially toxic health threat, and drinking water could be contaminated.
The U.S. believes that Russia may use joint military exercises inside Belarus as cover for an invasion of Ukraine from the north, according to a senior State Department official.
Why it matters: New deployments to the Belarus-Ukraine border in the coming weeks — in addition to the 100,000 Russian troops already encircling Ukraine from the north, east and south — could allow Russia to open up a new front less than 100 miles from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on Friday, following a trip to Kyiv to reinforce U.S. support for Ukraine in the face of a possible Russian invasion, according to a senior U.S. official.
Why it matters: The meeting with Lavrov suggests a diplomatic resolution to the crisis may still be on the table, despite the collapse of security talks between Russia and the West last week.
Two lawmakers are urging the federal government to ensure state governments are not procuring telecommunications equipment from Chinese companies deemed a security risk, according to a letter viewed by Axios.
The big picture: Governments around the world are struggling to determine which Chinese tech companies may pose security risks, and how to extricate those products and services from sensitive telecommunications infrastructure.
In a new book, former Hong Kong lawmaker Nathan Law connects his experiences as a pro-democracy activist in Hong Kong with China's attempts to curb freedoms around the world.
Why it matters: "It’s really important that we see Hong Kong as part of the puzzle in a bigger picture of democratic recession, so we can equip ourselves more as China expands its authoritarianism around the world," Law told Axios in an interview.
NATO will consider an attack against a member country's assets in space as an assault on the alliance, and such actions could lead to a coordinated armed response from all members if necessary, according to NATO's first formal, public space policy released Monday.
Why it matters: The policy reflects the increasing importance of space to more countries. It also normalizes NATO's intentions in space as China, Russia, India and other countries push forward on their science and military ambitions in orbit and beyond.
At least three people are confirmed to have died in Tonga following the undersea volcanic eruption that sent tsunami waves toward the island nation and across the Pacific over the weekend, officials said Tuesday.
The big picture: Officials reported major damage along the western coast of the main island of Tongatapu, where the capital, Nuku'alofa, was covered in ash and dust, including on the runway of the airport. Officials in Tonga confirmed three deaths in the country's first official statement since the crisis began.
A bipartisan group of seven U.S. senators met Monday in Kyiv with President Volodymyr Zelensky and other top officials as Ukraine and the West brace for the possibility of an imminent Russian invasion.
Why it matters: The delegation is seeking to project a united front with Ukraine, following a divisive Senate vote on Thursday in which Democrats blocked sanctionsZelensky's government was seeking against the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The first images are emerging of the damage to Tonga's islands, which were hit by a volcanic eruption and tsunami waves over the weekend.
The big picture: At least three people were confirmed to have died in Saturday's disaster. Satellite images shared by the UN Satellite Center on Monday and Maxar Technologies on Tuesday underscore what officials on the ground are reporting: There's major damage on the main island of Tongatapuatu, where ash and dust are hindering relief efforts.
