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National

Over 61,000 people died from searing summer temperatures across Europe last year, according to a study published in the journal Nature Medicine on Monday.

Why it matters: The study's estimates reinforce the fact that extreme heat events, which are becoming more likely and more severe because of climate change, are among the most dangerous weather-related hazards, though their death tolls and destruction are often not immediately known.

The heat-related mortality rates across Europe last summer, which was the continent's hottest season on record by substantial margins, had not yet been quantified before this study.

The findings indicate that heat adaptation strategies adopted by European countries after a deadly heat wave in 2003 were only partially effective at preventing heat-related casualties during that time period.

That's particularly concerning, as temperatures across Europe are increasing twice as fast as in any other continent, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

What they did: The study's researchers analyzed excess death data collected fr0m more than 800 regions in 35 European countries.

What they found: They discovered that a person's risk of dying from elevated temperatures "steeply" increased with age.

Women, particularly those over the age of 80, were more likely to die than men, though men were more likely to die in younger age groups.

Of note: Physiological differences and sociocultural factors could have accounted for the death disparity between men and women, but the researchers also found that differences in the age structure of men and women could explain why more women died among advanced ages and more men at younger ages.

Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal had the highest heat-related mortality rates that summer, which were likely the result of extreme heat persisting in Southwestern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea that summer.

What they're saying: The researchers said the magnitude of heat-related deaths should spur European countries to reevaluate and strengthen how they track and respond to heat-related injuries. 

"It's an indication to those countries that they need to review their plans and see what is not working," said Chloe Brimicombe, a climate scientist at Austria's University of Graz, to Reuters.

The big picture: Last summer also exacerbated drought conditions across Europe that threatened crops and helped drive a major spike in the price of agricultural goods in the EU.

The elevated temperatures also contributed to the continent's second-worst wildfire season on record, during which nearly 17,000 fires burnt over 4 million acres (1.62 million hectares).  

What's next: This summer could be no better in terms of heat-related deaths.

This year, the effects of human-caused climate change and global warming are coinciding with an El Niño event, and new global temperature records have already been set.

In April, Western Europe and Northwest Africa were stuck by an early season heat wave that would have been "almost impossible" without the effects of human-caused warming.

Go deeper: Flash flooding in N.Y., Vermont triggers water rescues as storms slam Northeast

Flash flooding in N.Y., Vermont triggers water rescues as storms slam Northeast

Extreme heat during Europe's hottest summer killed over 61,000, study says

Extreme heat events are becoming more likely and more severe because of climate change.

Paramedics tending to a patient in Barcelona, Spain, during a heat wave in July 2022.

Paramedics tending to a patient in Barcelona, Spain, during a heat wave in July 2022. Photo: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg via Getty Images

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Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

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Macro

Axios Macro

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Axios Visuals

Inflation is not looking quite so scary to American consumers, according to new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that suggests a broader cooldown could be on the way.

Driving the news: In the bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations, the median expected inflation over the next year fell to 3.8% in June, from 4.1% in May, notching a third straight month of decline and reaching its lowest level since April 2021.

Yes, but: At the long-term horizon, survey respondents' inflation expectations rose, with three-year expected inflation unchanged and five-year expectations rising to 3%, from 2.7%.

And consumers were more pessimistic about the job market outlook, with their average stated odds of losing their job in the next year rising 2 percentage points to 12.9%, the highest since November 2021.

And median expected spending growth over the next year declined to 5.2%, from 5.6% in May, reaching the lowest level since September 2021.

Between the lines: Putting it all together, Americans anticipate a cooldown in the economy without recessionary conditions, in which they spend less and are a little more worried about job loss but experience more modest inflation than in the recent past.

To the degree expectations can be self-fulfilling, that's a soft-landing story.

Americans' cooldown expectations

Inflation is not looking quite so scary to American consumers.

Consumers

Illustration of a quarter that has been bitten and bent. 

Federal Reserve

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

The globe's historic heat records have received massive media attention, but at a regional level, excessively hot weather is building across the U.S. and is likely to last well over a week.

Why it matters: Globally, there have been four straight days of temperature records set or tied since July 3, along with seven straight days of average temperatures breaching 17°C (62.6°F), which previously had not occurred since at least 1940. 

Potentially historic and deadly heat is already present in the Southwest, including California and Arizona. Parts of Texas and Florida are also mired in extreme heat, and conditions in each of these areas are forecast to worsen.

Context: Climate change is causing heat waves to be more likely and intense. Record global ocean temperatures are contributing to heat waves over land, and sending humidity levels soaring in some regions. 

This elevates the heat index, which is a measure of how hot the air feels to the human body. 

The big picture: Dangerously sweltering conditions are expected to intensify this week across the Southwest. That puts daily, monthly and some all-time records in jeopardy from the deserts of southern California to southwestern Texas. 

In Arizona, the NWS warns that residents of Phoenix be prepared for temperatures into the 110s°F for this week and into next, with the city's milestone for the most consecutive 110-degree days likely to fall. The current record stands at 18 days.

As the weekend approaches, the heat is likely to worsen to "extreme" levels, per the NWS, as an area of high pressure aloft, or heat dome, moves overhead and strengthens. 

At that time, a rare high temperature of 120°F may be within reach. The city's all-time high temperature record is 122°F.

Long-lasting heat waves are especially dangerous for public health. During this extreme heat event, overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain elevated, well into the 80s and 90s, providing no relief for people who may find themselves without access to cooling. 

Zoom in: Florida is on a hot streak as well, and temperatures well above average are forecast to continue this week and next for much of the state. 

It is unusual for the Sunshine State to see heat indices up to 110°F, but that is likely to continue during this event. 

Extremely high ocean temperatures along the Florida coast, with unheard-of readings of 90°F or greater, are helping to fuel the heat. 

Such water temperatures could cause coral bleaching in the Florida Keys, since warm water corals are extremely sensitive to spikes in water temperatures. 

What's next: There are signs that the heat dome over the nation's southern tier will actually expand its influence over time, bringing unusually hot weather to the southern Plains states by the weekend as well.

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Get smarter, faster on what matters in Phoenix with Jeremy Duda and Jessica Boehm.

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"Extreme" heat envelops Phoenix, 42 million people under warnings

This heat wave will be long-lasting, and is likely to intensify over time.

Map showing unusually high air pressure associated with heat domes over the Southeast , Texas and Florida. 

Map showing unusually high air pressure associated with heat domes over the Southeast , Texas and Florida. Image: Weatherbell.com

Computer model image showing a heat dome building across the Southwest, South and Florida this week. 

Pro Rata

Axios Pro Rata

Social media users have spent the past week picking sides — either sticking with Elon Musk's Twitter or turning their attentions to Threads, the new app from Mark Zuckerberg's media megalodon.

But, but, but: Several big investors are playing both sides.

Behind the scenes: Some financial supporters of Musk's $44 billion Twitter takeover also have significant shareholdings in Meta.

Baron Funds, for example, invested $100 million into Twitter but also has more than $60 million of Meta stock. In at least one case, Baron holds both Twitter and Meta shares within the same fund. Also worth noting that Baron only marked down Twitter by 11.7% through the end of March, whereas Fidelity had marked it down by more than 60%.

Speaking of Fidelity, it's also a double-dipper. The investment giant committed $316 million to Twitter and has around $415 million of Meta, again with fund overlap.

Andreessen Horowitz put $400 million into Twitter and still lists Meta as an active portfolio company on its website, although that may be old info as it still features the Facebook logo and spokespeople didn't return requests for comment. [Update: A source tells Axios that the firm no longer holds Meta shares.]

We do know, however, that firm co-founder Marc Andreessen has more than $13 million in Meta shares via his role as a company director. Andreessen, who doesn't yet appear to have created a Threads account, declined to comment.

Two other Twitter investors, Cartenna Capital and Honeycomb Asset Management, were Meta shareholders that appear to have fully divested during Q1 2023, per securities filings.

Elsewhere: Twitter, which has threatened to sue Meta over Threads, did file a complaint against Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, the law firm that represented Twitter during its 2022 legal battle with Musk. 

In short, Twitter is arguing that the $90 million charged by Watchell was exorbitant. 

The bottom line: Backing rivals is normal among public equities investors, but it's much rarer when a private company is involved.

Some investors are backing both Twitter and Threads maker Meta

Some big money has decided not to choose its social media champion.

Illustration of a man showing off two cuff links on one sleeve, one with the Twitter logo and the other with the Threads logo.

Facebook

Elon Musk

Social Media

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Yevgeny Prigozhin less than a week after the Wagner boss launched a short-lived rebellion, the Kremlin said on Monday.

Why it matters: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Putin, Prigozhin and other Wagner commanders met for three hours in Moscow on June 29 — the first known meeting between the Russian president and mercenary chief since the brief mutiny.

The uprising was the biggest threat to Putin's rule since he came to power more than two decades ago.

Catch up quick: Prigozhin and his Wagner forces briefly took over Rostov-on-Don, an important city for the Russian military, on June 24 and came within 125 miles of Moscow before turning back following a deal in which the mercenary boss agreed to end the march and go to Belarus in exchange for amnesty and certain security guarantees.

The Russian president at the time had accused those who "organized and prepared the armed rebellion" of treason, saying they had "betrayed Russia."

Putin met with Wagner boss days after short-lived mutiny

It is the first known meeting between the Russian president and mercenary chief since the brief rebellion.

Axios

Monday's top stories

Extreme heat during Europe's hottest summer killed over 61,000, study says

Americans' cooldown expectations

"Extreme" heat envelops Phoenix, 42 million people under warnings

Some investors are backing both Twitter and Threads maker Meta

Putin met with Wagner boss days after short-lived mutiny

Women's labor force participation hits record high

Warning: Student loan cliff ahead

Retailers seek to shake up clinical trials business

Old yeller: Biden's private fury

How AI will turbocharge misinformation — and what we can do about it

Scoop: GOP plan targets foreign dark money for 2024

Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots