National

President Biden said it'd be "premature" for Ukraine to begin the NATO membership process during a war, but he told Turkey's president Sunday he wants Sweden to join the alliance as soon as possible.

Driving the news: Biden told CNN in an interview broadcast Sunday ahead of attending this week's NATO summit in Lithuania that Russia's war on Ukraine must end before Kyiv can join the alliance.

What he's saying: "I don't think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war," Biden told CNN's Fareed Zakaria in the interview, recorded before he flew to the United Kingdom Sunday ahead of his trip to Vilnius.

"We're determined to commit every inch of territory that is NATO territory," he said. "If the war is going on, then we're all in war. We're at war with Russia, if that were the case."

Biden said he'd spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about laying out a "rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify" for NATO and providing Ukraine with security and weaponry needed in efforts to defeat Putin's forces.

Meanwhile, Zelensky said in an interview with ABC News that aired Sunday if there's currently no unity in inviting Ukraine to join NATO, the country "should get clear security guarantees" while it's not in the alliance.

Joining NATO is "a matter of political will" and it "would be an important message to say that NATO is not afraid of Russia," he added.

Of note: During his CNN interview, Biden defended his decision to send to Ukraine for the first time cluster munitions, as several congressional Democrats spoke out Sunday over the decision to send the weapons, which are banned by over 120 countries under the Convention on Cluster Munitions.

"It was a very difficult decision on my part and by the way, I discussed this with our allies, I discussed this with our friends up on the Hill," Biden said. "The Ukrainians are running out of ammunition."

What we're watching: National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told ABC News Sunday he expects allies to stay "unified on supporting Ukraine in this fight against Russia on their soil" at the NATO summit that's due to begin in Vilnius on Tuesday.

"You're also going to see from all the allies a concerted, unified approach to making it clear that NATO is eventually going to be in Ukraine’s future, and that in between the time of the war ending and that happening, that the allies will continue to help Ukraine defend itself," he added.

The intrigue: Another key item on NATO's agenda this week will be the matter of Sweden joining the alliance, which stalled after Turkish officials accused the Scandinavian nation of harboring Kurdish terrorists. 

Biden conveyed in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Sunday "his desire to welcome Sweden into NATO as soon as possible," per a White House readout.

The Turkish government issued a statement after the call noting that Stockholm had addressed some of it's concerns by implementing anti-terrorism legislation, but added pro-Kurdish groups that are banned in Turkey continued to hold demonstrations in Sweden — which it said "nullifies the steps taken."

Go deeper: 3 keys to peace as the war in Ukraine hits 500 days

3 keys to peace as the war in Ukraine hits 500 days

Biden says Russia's war in Ukraine must end before Kyiv can join NATO

"I don't think there is unanimity in NATO" on Ukraine becoming a member "in the middle of a war," he told CNN ahead of NATO summit.

President Joe Biden speaks during an event about lowering health care costs in the East Room of the White House on July 7, 2023 in Washington, DC. 

President Biden at the White House on Friday. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Joe Biden

World

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

While Democrats hold a fighting chance to win back the House majority in 2024, the emergence of problematic candidates and messy primaries in several key races could complicate their path.

Why it matters: The Democrats' House campaign committee doesn't plan on getting involved in contested primaries, according to officials familiar with its strategy. That runs the risk that weaker candidates could emerge in must-win races — a dynamic that Republicans are very familiar with.

Driving the news: Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a progressive attorney who lost an Oregon district that Biden carried by nine points in 2022, is planning to seek a rematch against Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.).

But Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum is already in the race — and said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) encouraged her to run.

A co-owner of McDonald's franchises, Bynum is seen by party leaders as a more business-friendly candidate better positioned to win swing voters.

What we're watching: Democrats are also facing a potential primary headache involving the suburban northern New Jersey seat of Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.) — a true bellwether district.

Sue Altman, the leader of the progressive Working Families Party in New Jersey, was the first Democrat to enter the race and announced raising over $200,000 in the recent fundraising quarter.

Democrats privately worry that her profile — she led protests against neighboring Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) for his moderate record — makes it harder for them to win the seat, but no obvious alternative has emerged. Roselle Park Mayor Joseph Signorello, former State Department official Jason Blazakis and former state Sen. Raymond Lesniak are all mulling runs.

Between the lines: In one of the marquee House Democratic primaries, two candidates with solid political pedigrees are squaring off.

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones and local school board trustee Liz Gereghty (better known as the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer) are running in a primary to face Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), one of Democrats' top targets.

Jones, a recognizable former congressman and CNN commentator, starts out as the primary front-runner, according to Democrats tracking the race — but some worry his progressive record could alienate crime-conscious moderates.

After winning his first congressional election in 2020, Jones tweeted: "We must reimagine our criminal legal system" in a call to reduce mass incarceration. Notably, in his campaign kickoff video, he touts an endorsement from a local policeman who says he "funded the police."

Crime was the top issue for New York voters in last year's midterms, as Republicans picked up three Democratic-held House seats in the Empire State despite an otherwise disappointing election. Lawler defeated DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in one of the GOP's signature 2022 victories.

The other side: Republicans have a few primary red flags of their own. Joe Kent, the right-wing candidate who lost to Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) in a district Trump carried, is running again for Congress.

What they're saying: "Candidate choices in the key districts are going to matter — and if primary voters make a poor choice or two, it could have a major impact on the overall landscape," said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

The bottom line: With primary voters often preferring ideologically-driven candidates, an urgent task for both parties is ensuring electable nominees emerge in battleground races.

The GOP's hands-off approach in 2022 likely cost the party several Senate seats, prompting the Republicans' Senate campaign arm to engage more aggressively in primaries this year.

Democrats, facing ideological divisions in their own party, could be forced to make similarly tough decisions if problematic candidates emerge.

House Democrats face possible primary headaches

The emergence of problematic candidates could complicate Dems' path to the majority.

Illustration of a distressed donkey with an ice pack on its head. 

House Democrats

It pays — literally — to channel voter anger against one's opposition more than it does to draw support to one's own campaign message, based on an early tally of top fundraisers last quarter.

Why it matters: The roster of top political fundraisers capitalized on caricaturing the opposition as uniquely evil to raise gobs of money for their campaigns.

The bipartisan list of bogeymen includes the "Deep State" for former President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for potential Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred and MAGA Republicans for Senate candidate Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.).

Driving the news: Trump raised a healthy $35 million through his two campaign committees in the second quarter — about double the amount he raised in the first three months of the year.

His two indictments sparked his campaign's biggest fundraising days, driven by a surge of small-dollar donors expressing anger toward a perception of law enforcement overreach.

Zoom in: Trump isn't the only politician capitalizing on voter rage. Schiff, a top Trump antagonist, raised a whopping $8.1 million for a race in which he faces no credible competition from Republicans.

Schiff, preparing for a costly primary, capitalized on House Republicans' vote to censure him last month to turbocharge his already potent fundraising.

He received over 233,000 donations from all 50 states — showcasing the breadth of liberal voter anger toward the perceived overreach of the House GOP majority.

Between the lines: Even candidates who aren't in Congress proved the power of a polarizing opponent as a fundraising magnet. Democratic businessman Adam Frisch, who nearly defeated Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) last year, raised over $2.6 million.

Frisch's campaign said the imposing tally is the largest quarterly fundraising total for any non-incumbent House candidate in the year before an election, excluding special elections and self-funded campaigns. Boebert is a conservative firebrand best known for heckling President Biden during his State of the Union speech and arming herself on Capitol Hill.

Allred, a lower-profile lawmaker than Schiff, still raised an impressive $6.2 million as he pursues a long-shot Senate race in the red state of Texas. His scorching fundraising was fueled by the man he's running against: Cruz, a polarizing conservative.

Reality check: Eye-popping fundraising totals matter, but not as much as crafting a winning message.

In Texas, as Beto O'Rourke learned in his 2018 narrow loss to Cruz, money often doesn't translate into success.

Among the top Democratic fundraisers in recent elections were Amy McGrath and Jaime Harrison — red-state challengers to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), respectively.

Despite huge fundraising hauls and ample hype over their campaigns, McGrath and Harrison lost by double-digits — while other Democrats in critical races struggled to raise enough money.

The bottom line: Negative polarization — the intense dislike of the political opposition — is driving politics to the point in which we forget what our favored candidates even stand for.

That can pay off in the short term, but ultimately to win competitive elections, campaigns can't just rely on juicing their own base.

The power of rage-based fundraising

They caricatured the opposition as uniquely evil to raise gobs of money for their campaigns.

Former President Trump speaks in Las Vegas yesterday. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Fundraising

Communicators

Axios Communicators

Number of unique readers to articles about select brands

The boycott in response to Bud Light's outreach to transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney has had notable staying power.

Why it matters: The ferocity of this particular boycott — which has entered its third month of headlines — is due in large part to the brand's misalignment with key consumers, easily accessible competitors and the poor corporate response.

Reality check: On average, only 1 in 5 people will boycott a brand due to its stance on cultural issues, according to a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) customer loyalty survey.

Boycotters skew older, with 25% of them counting as baby boomers.

Be smart: These boycotts rarely affect a company's bottom line and can often be met with "buycotts" — a movement in which consumers go out of their way to support brands that take a stand with which they agree.

A recent example was in 2020, when Goya Foods CEO Bob Unanue alienated a substantial part of the Latino food distributor's consumer base by praising then-President Trump.

The consumers who were boycotting the brand were countered by Trump supporters' buycotting efforts. Within two weeks, sales increased by 56.4% in heavily Republican counties and first-time Goya buyers made up 16.9% of sales, according to research by Anna Tuchman, an associate professor of marketing at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

Yes, but: While the impact was temporary, with no noticeable sales increase after the three-week mark, the buycott did help the brand stay afloat through the controversy.

Between the lines: Unlike Goya, Bud Light didn't receive the buycott effect because Anheuser-Busch U.S. CEO Brendan Whitworth's statement appeared to try to play both sides, angering each as a result.

Plus, other brands that have been in the cultural crosshairs — like Goya and Disney — have cornered their perspective markets in a way that Bud Light hasn't.

What they're saying: The key is understanding your stakeholders and being aware of how even the smallest act can put a company at the center of the culture wars and cost billions, Vanderbilt University chancellor and management scholar Daniel Diermeier said.

"It's very difficult to anticipate when the next shoe will drop. ... So [communications teams] will have to up their game to be able to trace which issues are having traction and which ones aren't."

Zoom in: One way to do that is by properly vetting each partnership or brand campaign, says Matt McDonald, president of Penta Group.

"Vetting is the political sensibility layer that should sit on top of business decisions. ... The corporate fumbles we have seen in recent months would be avoidable with robust vetting operations in place."

"I'm not sure most people understand how extensive the vetting process is in political campaigns. ... If [the candidate] makes a diner stop, they research the diner. If they announce a big endorsement or disclose a big donor, they check to see what that person has said and done in the past. In the corporate space, it's not clear that vetting for cultural or political minefields is really done."

Another way: Penta is also using data to identify future cultural calamities.

"We're doing a lot more trend-spotting and identifying conversations that are bubbling up in the parts of the internet that may not be front and center for every corporation," says McDonald.

"We've been doing that both from a perspective of risk management to better understand what's around the corner and then [identifying] what is driving conversations culturally, and how you can be a part of it, or not be a part of it."

Editor's note: This story was originally published on July 6. 

The staying power of the Bud Light boycott

The ferocity of this particular boycott  is due to the brand's misalignment with key consumers, easily accessible competitors and the poor corporate response.

Communications

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Axios AM

Change in state share of national GDP

Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Map: Simran Parwani/Axios Visuals

It's not just about the coasts and the bubbles anymore: Six fast-growing states in the South now add more to the national GDP than the Northeast, the perennial powerhouse, Bloomberg reports.

Why it matters: Americans are spreading out, physically and economically.

Those six states — Florida, Texas, Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee — are in the middle of a "$100 billion wealth migration" as the U.S. economic center of gravity tilts south, Bloomberg notes.

The switch happened during peak COVID. There's no sign it'll reverse.

By the numbers: A flood of transplants helped steer about $100 billion in new income to the Southeast in 2020 and 2021 alone, while the Northeast bled out about $60 billion, Bloomberg writes from IRS data.

Cities with the largest numeric increase in population from 2021 to 2022

Data: Census Bureau. Map: Thomas Oide/Axios

The Census Bureau said in May that nine of the nation's 15 fastest-growing cities were in the South.

Of the nine fastest-growing cities in the South, six were in Texas.

The bottom line: For years, the U.S. population has been trending south and southwest. Now money and economic activity are following.

Editor's note: This story was originally published on July 5.

America's economy rapidly shifts south

Americans are spreading out, physically and economically.

Demographics

Map showing the change in state share of national GDP from 2012 to 2022. The west had larger increases compared to other regions, with places like Utah with +23.4%. The lowest states were Alaska and Louisiana, with -29% and -26%, respectively.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Sunday signaled plans to move forward on more than a dozen pieces of legislation this month ranging from government funding to cannabis banking to artificial intelligence.

Why it matters: The Senate's apparent lethargy over the last 7 months has been a source of criticism from House Republicans as they've passed a raft of messaging bills doomed to die in the upper chamber.

Driving the news: In a Sunday letter to colleagues laying out the Senate's plans for the next three weeks, Schumer said they will go far beyond must-pass legislation funding the government and reauthorizing the military.

"Senate Democrats will also continue our work with our Republican colleagues to advance legislation in a range of policy areas," he wrote.

Among those issues: Drug pricing and community health, fentanyl, energy permitting reform, online safety, bank executive pay clawbacks, rail safety, federal aviation, farm policy, cannabis banking and China. 

Schumer also pointed to his framework to regulate artificial intelligence, previewing an all-senators classified briefing on Tuesday from Pentagon and intelligence officials on the subject.

What we're watching: Whether any of these bills pass will depend not only on bipartisan support – any bill supported by all Senate Democrats also needs nine Republicans to overcome the legislative filibuster – but approval from House Republicans to put it on the floor.

"It is always my hope that we will be able to find consensus and develop a path forward with our Republican colleagues," Schumer wrote. But, he added, "where that is not possible, we must purse all options available for advancing programs to protect and expand America’s middle class."

And then there's the judges. That has been the primary function of the Senate since Republicans took control of the House, and one of the few things Democrats can do unilaterally.

Schumer said Democrats will "continue working to confirm President Biden’s diverse and experienced nominees and to rebalance the federal bench with judges who respect the rule of law."

He also teased legislation to institute a code of ethics for the Supreme Court, which Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said will be marked up by his panel this week.

source of criticism from House Republicans

framework to regulate artificial intelligence

Schumer plans busy July as Senate returns from recess

Cannabis banking, drug pricing and artificial intelligence are among more than a dozen issues on the agenda.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images.

Chuck Schumer

Record-setting heat and hazardous air have already consumed much of the U.S. this summer, and the worst may be yet to come.

The big picture: The effects of a warming climate are no longer happening in the background. They're actively dictating and shaping our lives.

Driving the news: Blistering heat waves have struck all over the country; another one is now ramping up in the Southwest.

Tens of millions of people have been exposed to dangerously poor air quality due to smoke billowing from Canada's record-breaking wildfires. 

Those fires could worsen this month, and some could even last through the winter by becoming "zombie fires" in the Far North, burning in the soils of peatlands.

This week featured the world's hottest days on record. Even hotter extremes lie ahead from the one-two punch of El Niño and climate change.

Between the lines: To meteorologists and climate scientists who closely track the planet's "climate indicators," the simultaneous number of flashing red signs are ominous.

The daily heat records set or tied this week have been astonishing, beating previous spikes that also occurred during 2016's El Niño conditions. 

The North Atlantic Ocean Basin's sea surface temperatures are at all-time record highs, leading some scientists to increase their forecasts for the number of hurricanes likely to form this season. 

Antarctic sea ice cover is at an all-time low. 

Global monthly and daily temperatures are spiking off the charts, too. 

On Thursday, global average surface temperatures exceeded 63° Fahrenheit for the first time. Last month was the hottest June on record.

This month will likely be the hottest July, and maybe the hottest month ever recorded, Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with Berkeley Earth and at Stripe, tells Axios.

The heat waves across the country this summer have been long-lasting and deadly, the result of stagnant weather patterns featuring brutal heat domes locked in place for weeks at a time.

What's next: Another developing heat dome, this one setting up across the Southwest, looks to yield one of the longest, hottest heat waves on record in Arizona during the next two weeks. That includes Phoenix, the National Weather Service warns. 

"Temperatures across the region may be some of the hottest we have ever seen," forecasters wrote in an online briefing Friday. They also stated it could break a record for the longest-lasting heat wave in the region's history.

It is possible that Phoenix will tie or exceed its all-time temperature record of 122°F, which would be an acute public health risk. 

Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in a typical year across the U.S. 

Context: Stronger areas of high pressure aloft, or heat domes, are a suspected hallmark of a warming climate. Studies show that heat waves are becoming more severe, longer lasting, and likely to occur as the global average temperature rises. 

Some studies have found that certain heat waves would have been virtually impossible in the absence of human-caused global warming.

According to Michael Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, climate change now makes typical heat waves about 5°F warmer than temperatures would have been in a preindustrial climate.

The transition out of a cooling La Niña and into an El Niño, which tends to boost global average temperatures, has quickly manifested in record monthly temperatures, Hausfather told Axios in an email.

The bottom line: It is increasingly likely that both 2023 and 2024 will set records for the warmest years since instrument records began in the 1800s. In April, Hausfather wrote that there was only about a 22% chance that 2023 would eclipse 2016 as the warmest year on record. 

That has now increased to "roughly 77%," he said. 

"We expect 2024 to be even warmer, as the majority of the El Niño's effects will be felt then."

America's cruel summer

Yet another record heat wave is building in the U.S. as the odds of all-time monthly and annual records increase.

Climate change

Extreme weather

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

The cost of postage stamps is going up by 3 cents on Sunday, the third price hike in the last 12 months.

Why it matters: It's the 17th rate change since 2000 and the shortest time between stamp increases in the Postal Service's history.

Rates last went up in January. Before that, they rose in July 2022 and August 2021.

Costs to send a letter by certified mail and insure packages will also increase.

The big picture: The Postal Service said in April that the increases raise first class mail by approximately 5.4% to "offset the rise in inflation" and are needed "to address continued elevated inflation and prior years defective pricing model."

Between the 1970s and 2000, rates increased three to four times a decade, USPS data shows.

Yes, but: Kevin Yoder, executive director of the advocacy group Keep US Posted and a former Republican congressman from Kansas, said that each time rates go up, mail volumes go down at a faster rate than projected.

"With three unprecedented postage hikes in 12 months, USPS has kicked off runaway 'stampflation' like the U.S. has never seen, and it's making the situation worse," Yoder said in a statement.

Yoder said that after January's rate increase began, "mail volume immediately decreased nearly 9% year-over-year, while expenses increased by 16%."

Zoom in: The number of pieces of mail handled by the post office has been on the decline in recent years as more people pay bills online and fewer send physical thank you cards.

In 2022, USPS handled 127.3 billion pieces of mail compared to the high of 213.1 billion in 2006, data shows.

Sunday, July 9 is the day the new rates go into effect and postage for a 1-ounce letter is 66 cents, up from 63 cents. The first-class stamp will be double the 1999 rate of 33 cents. Other increases are:

Metered 1-ounce letters will cost 63 cents, up from 60 cents.

Postcards sent domestically are 51 cents, up from 48 cents.

International postcards and 1-ounce letters are $1.50, a 5-cent increase.

Between the lines: The cost for Certified Mail, Post Office Box rental fees, money order fees and insurance are also increasing.

Flashback: The Postal Service first started selling Forever stamps in 2007, when they cost 41 cents.

Since 2011, all first-class commemorative stamps have been issued as Forever stamps.

"If you don't have Forever stamps, now is a good time to stock up," Yoder said.

What's next: More price increases are expected as part of Postmaster General Louis DeJoy's 10-year Delivering for America plan "to achieve financial sustainability."

Listen to the Axios Today podcast, where host Niala Boodhoo shares why people should consider Forever Stamps.

The cost of car repairs is surging amid widespread shortages

Subway adds new subs and meat slicers to restaurants

belVita products recalled for possible peanut contamination

USPS increases stamp prices again starting Sunday

Prepare to pay more when you mail a letter or greeting card unless you have a supply of Forever stamps.

A mail carrier in United States Postal Service truck delivers mail

The price to mail a letter is going up unless you have Forever stamps. Photo: Paul Ratje/AFP via Getty Images

United States Postal Service (USPS)

Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley have reached a critical fundraising threshold to qualify for GOP presidential primary debates well into the fall, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: For candidates who are not former President Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the debates are a crucial marker and opportunity to propel themselves further along in the race and expand their fundraising.

Haley, a former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor, and Ramaswamy, a businessman and author, have both received political donations from more than 60,0000 individual donors, their campaigns confirmed to Axios. 

Those numbers will help them earn a spot not only at the the first debate but also the second and third RNC debates.

What we're hearing: Top Republican National Committee officials have been privately laying out the donor thresholds for the first three debates to campaigns, according to people familiar with the conversations:

2024 up-and-coming GOP fundraisers emerge

"We've seen an explosion an uptick in the rate of donations."

Sunday's top stories