Axios

A federal appeals court rejected the Justice Department's emergency bid to set aside mail ballots tied to more than 20,000 California voters the Trump administration suspects are noncitizens.

Why it matters: The 2–1 ruling leaves California's election procedures intact just days before the midterms, with the judges citing doubts about the DOJ's voter list and the risk of disenfranchising eligible voters.

A federal judge said Friday she plans to appoint a special master to investigate whether Justice and Interior Department officials misled the court about the Trump administration's plans to renovate a D.C. golf course, according to news reports.

Why it matters: The investigation could lead to professional sanctions, contempt proceedings or criminal referrals against administration officials over allegations government lawyers misled the judge.

Have you seen the Oct. 29 clip? The one where a guy compared a Trump rally to the 1978 Jonestown massacre while he was live on Fox News.

• "Wait, the Jonestown massacre?" Fox correspondent Lucas Tomlinson asked.
• "There's nothing like seeing a cult right up front, man," the interviewee responded.
• "Maybe this is not a Trump supporter," the reporter said before turning to another attendee.
• But not before the man got a plug in: "MadPark Designs," he said, pointing to his hat.

Most Americans will turn their clocks back early Sunday morning, following Halloween night, despite President Trump's push to end the practice and his public feud with a key Senate Republican over the issue.

Why it matters: Many Americans want to end the twice-yearly clock change in some way, but Congress remains deadlocked about how to make that happen.

The proposed $85 billion merger between railroads Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern has become an issue in Nebraska's Senate race.

The big picture: Independent candidate Dan Osborn, a union steamfitter whom polls show has a chance at unseating Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), has argued that deal risks worker safety and would increase costs.

Pope Leo XIV voted in the 2026 Illinois midterm elections using a mail-in ballot, the Vatican confirmed Friday, becoming the first sitting pope known to vote in an American election.

Why it matters: The pontiff, an American citizen, may be the first to vote in any secular democratic election.

A Texas grand jury indicted ICE officer Mario Alberto Morales with a charge of second-degree aggravated assault Friday after prosecutors said he deliberately drove his SUV into a fleeing immigrant in early October.

Why it matters: This may be the first time an ICE agent has ever been indicted in Texas, making it a rare case of a federal immigration officer facing state charges.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) is endorsing a trio of insurgent Democratic candidates who are challenging his fellow California House Democrats, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: This is an aggressive move by a potential 2028 presidential contender who styles himself as one of the few Democrats willing to get into direct confrontations with the party establishment.

New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is giving a last-minute infusion of cash to help three Democratic Senate candidates in top battleground races, her team told Axios first.

Why it matters: The $450,000 boost in the final weekend of the midterm campaign is the latest sign that Ocasio-Cortez is looking to build alliances with Democrats across the country as she considers a run for president in 2028.

Grocery giants Albertsons and Kroger on Friday are scheduled to wrap witness testimony in a Delaware Chancery Court trial over their failed mega-merger.

Why it matters: Deal lawyers are paying close attention to the outcome.

Democrats weighing 2028 presidential bids are piling onto the AI hate wave in their messaging, per an analysis shared exclusively with Axios.

Why it matters: Democrats are turning AI anxiety into a political rallying cry ahead of 2028, while Republicans remain divided over how to respond.

President Trump's energy policies and investment deals could become major targets of Democratic investigations if the party wins control of either chamber of Congress.

Why it matters: Congressional probes could expose new details about the administration's dealings with major companies and foreign governments.

Here's a scary truth: The housing market is haunted. Home sales are anemic, yet prices are still high, and homebuilders say it's hard getting people out to even look at places.

Why it matters: For a long time, the residential real estate market was a crucial economic engine in the U.S., and homeownership the backbone of the American dream and wealth building.

• Now, not so much.

Where it stands: The average rate on the 30-year mortgage is 7.24%, up from just under 6% at the start of the Iran war — that put the kibosh on what had been a tentative thaw in the frozen sector.

• With rates that high, a lot of folks — particularly younger first-time buyers — can't afford the monthly payments. In September, 14.5% of pending home sales fell out of contract, per Redfin, the highest share outside the early pandemic.
• Traffic of prospective buyers to new homes fell to its lowest level since 2012 this month, according to a survey of homebuilders from the National Association of Home Builders.

The big picture: This is a situation years in the making. After the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates ultra-low, which meant low mortgage rates for buyers.

• Perhaps, perversely, that helped drive up home prices — you can afford to pay more when your mortgage rate is low.
• Home prices exploded, culminating in around a 40% increase during the 2021 and 2022 buying frenzy.

State of play: But now, home prices are still high — they haven't adjusted down as mortgage rates have gone back up.

Catch up quick: The previous era's low mortgage rates — an average of 4.15% from 2008-2021 — were an anomaly.

• "Consequently, there is little reason to believe that mortgage rates will fall much below 7.0% in the months or even years ahead, in the absence of a recession," David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, wrote in a note titled, yes, "Haunted Housing."

Zoom in: The market is "haunted by the legacy of too-easy monetary policy for well over a decade, which allowed prices to vault higher in the post-pandemic boom," he wrote.

• Tariffs and immigration policies are also taking a toll, Kelly said. The former is driving up prices for materials used to build homes, and the latter is driving up labor costs to build.

Zoom out: The situation is increasingly putting homeownership out of reach for young adults — the homeownership rate for that group, which had bounced back from its post-pandemic low, has fallen back some in recent years.

• Kelly says this is the scariest chart of all:

The bottom line: The housing market is more trick than treat lately.

America's corporate titans greeted President Trump's 2024 victory with open checkbooks, 12-figure investment pledges and fawning tributes to his coming "Golden Age."

• Two years later, on the eve of a potential blue wave, Democrats are preparing to greet those same executives with a stack of subpoenas.

Why it matters: The CEOs who staked their reputations and fortunes on MAGA's staying power could spend the final two years of Trump's presidency defending their dealings under oath.

El Salvador's strongman president, Nayib Bukele, is sending thousands of troops to Haiti to boost the island's push to wipe out its gang problem — and find four of his military personnel who were captured in a recent ambush.

• Bukele called President Trump on Tuesday to make sure he had no problem with this major military escalation, to which Haiti's government has agreed.
• "Do what you have to do," Trump told him, according to sources briefed on the call.

Why it matters: If it works, Bukele's troop surge could stabilize Haiti, a country 700 miles from Florida that has been devastated by deadly gang violence and has lacked a president since the last one, Jovenel Moise, was assassinated five years ago.

A bipartisan deal to speed energy development is facing concerns it could favor natural gas over renewables because of President Trump's opposition to wind and solar.

Why it matters: The worries from Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) could complicate efforts to pass the bill before year's end, highlighting divisions even among Democrats who have long supported permitting reform.

The last-minute revelation that Democrats intentionally recruited a same-name spoiler in Alaska is fueling multiple investigations in the race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

Why it matters: Daniel J. Sullivan, who shares a first and last name with Alaska's incumbent Republican senator, will stay on the ballot. But the battle over his candidacy has consequences that could extend beyond Election Day.

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) suggested Thursday the state could withhold certification of the U.S. Senate election results if Democrat Mary Peltola wins.

Why it matters: Withholding certification could complicate Peltola's path to the Senate, as Republicans investigate allegations that Democrats recruited a candidate with the same name as GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's reelection carries consequences far beyond Brazil's borders.

Why it matters: Lula faces challenges including strained relations with the U.S. over trade and the Bolsonaro family as he pursues an ambitious climate agenda that includes a commitment to ending Amazon deforestation.