Lula v. Bolsonaro: Brazil election unfolds in Trump's shadow
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Combination images of Brazil's President and re-election candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Trump. Photo by Aaron Schwartz and Sergio LIMA / AFP via Getty Images
Brazil votes Sunday in a presidential election that could reshape its relationship with President Trump, return the Bolsonaro movement to power and alter the future of the Amazon.
Why it matters: The showdown between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has turned into something bigger: a test of Trump's influence in Latin America's largest country, with stakes for the region and the global climate.
The latest: Trump said Thursday he's following Brazil's election "very closely" and called it "very important," though he didn't endorse a candidate.
Catch up quick: Trump inserted the U.S. into the contest when his administration imposed additional 25% tariffs on some Brazilian goods this summer — prompting Lula to accuse the American leader of "interference" in Brazil's affairs.
- The dispute has become campaign ammunition for Lula and Bolsonaro, the eldest son of Trump ally and former President Jair Bolsonaro.
- Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting a military coup to overturn Brazil's 2022 election. He's currently under house arrest due to health issues.
Context: The confrontation escalated in 2025 when the Trump administration targeted Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the prosecution of the elder Bolsonaro.
- The U.S. revoked his visa and sanctioned him, though the sanctions were later lifted.
State of play: Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running, but his son has pledged to continue his father's political legacy.
- That leaves the heir to a right-wing populist movement facing a left-wing president seeking a fourth, nonconsecutive term.
- A candidate must win more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a runoff.
- Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro lead the field, with recent polling showing them essentially even in a potential runoff.
The big picture: Nearly 60% of the Amazon rainforest is in Brazil. The forest stores enormous amounts of carbon and helps regulate the climate, giving the next president influence over an ecosystem with consequences far beyond Brazil's borders.
- Amazon deforestation fell by roughly half since Lula returned to office, though his climate record is complicated by his support for expanded oil development.
- Flávio Bolsonaro has backed loosening environmental regulations and said in August that he doesn't believe climate change is real.
- The election could determine whether Brazil continues its renewed forest protections even as it expands fossil-fuel production.
Lula's pitch: The 80-year-old president is campaigning on his economic and social policy record: state-led national development, income redistribution and continuing welfare programs.
Bolsonaro's pitch: The 45-year-old lawyer, who has represented Rio de Janeiro in Brazil's Senate since 2019, is campaigning on conservative social policies, tax cuts and a tougher approach to crime.
- He has pointed to Argentina as a model for closer bilateral trade with the U.S., while libertarian President Javier Milei appeared with him at a São Paulo political event in July to support his candidacy.
- Flávio Bolsonaro met with Trump at the White House in May and afterward pledged that Brazil would join Trump's "Shield of the Americas" initiative if he wins — a grouping that includes Argentina and El Salvador.
- He's also praised El Salvador President Nayib Bukele's security crackdown as an inspiration for Brazil and vowed to build "many, many prisons."
What's next: Brazil votes Sunday. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the top two finishers will advance to an Oct. 25 runoff.
