Democrats' main Senate super PAC is privately telling top donors that Texas offers their best shot at flipping a deep-red Senate seat, followed by Ohio, where the race remains close.
Senate Majority PAC also sees victories in Iowa and Alaska as within reach, though the outcomes could take longer to become clear.
Why it matters: Democrats are increasingly confident about Election Day on Tuesday — and sharing their qualified optimism with their biggest donors.
The 2026 midterms already face a messy pileup of lawsuits and ballot battles, raising fears about election confidence before voters even finish casting ballots.
Why it matters: Election challenges aren't unusual, but as the Trump administration continues to make false claims about widespread voter fraud, officials are juggling fights over voter lists, mail-ballot rules and election certification challenges.
The Pentagon's top military planner admitted to leaking classified information about Ukraine and Iran to two reporters from separate outlets over a one-year period, according to an internal report of the investigation shared with Axios.
Why it matters: Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia was fired this week by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for the alleged misconduct, which the career soldier acknowledged on video after he failed four polygraph tests, a U.S. official said.
Alaska's tight Senate race is facing a new controversy over two candidates named Dan Sullivan appearing on the ballot — a twist that's drawn attention from President Trump.
The big picture: The controversy is adding uncertainty to one of the nation's most competitive Senate contests, with control of Congress on the line in next week's midterm elections.
House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) is investigating allegations that Democratic operatives recruited an Alaska Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) in a bid to siphon votes from him.
Why it matters: The probe draws Congress into an escalating controversy surrounding Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola's campaign in one of the country's most competitive races.
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.
Why it matters: The economy is entering the final stretch of the year with remarkable momentum despite the Iran war and high energy prices, supercharged by a massive wave of AI investment and strong consumer spending.
Why it matters: The study from scholars at Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan think tank, offers some of the most detailed independent modeling yet of the bill's effects.
President Trump accused Democrats and Mary Peltola's campaign of fraud and perjury Wednesday after the New York Times reported that Peltola aides helped recruit another candidate named Dan Sullivan.
Why it matters: The revelations add a new twist to Alaska's tight Senate race, where a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot could complicate the Republican incumbent's reelection bid.
Democrats are seeking to weaponize AI in four competitive House races, launching a $4 million ad campaign to attack GOP incumbents based on new polling data shared exclusively with Axios.
Why it matters: The midterms have been called the first AI election, and the new campaign is one of a few key tests of how deeply voter anxiety over the revolutionary technology will sway outcomes at the ballot box.
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde will step down in February, nine months before her term expires, Lagarde said Thursday.
Why it matters: Lagarde's sooner-than-expected departure sets off a high-stakes leadership contest at Europe's most powerful central bank, as the region grapples with renewed inflation pressures and economic uncertainty.
The clearest image to date of China's highly secretive spaceplane was circulated this week in a new Pentagon report identifying space threats.
Why it matters: The photo is further evidence of China's space advancements, and the findings from the Defense Intelligence Agency shine a light on Beijing's orbital arms buildup.
Call it a new Apollo moment: Rocket launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida, are now outpacing those of the Cold War-era space race that first made the launch site famous.
Why it matters: U.S. leaders are rushing to grow the number of rocket providers at America's busiest spaceport amid a space and arms race with China.
Beijing plans to send a crew to the Moon by 2030 or sooner and is rapidly building up its satellite and rocket fleets.
President Trump seems to think he can save a vulnerable Ohio Republican senator's ass by talking about how strong it is.
Why it matters: Republicans are getting hammered over the war in Iran, gas prices and data centers. But they're playing along with Trump's ogling of male candidates, which he's described as an election strategy.
Americans are turning out in droves to vote early ahead of the midterms, with unusually strong participation among Black, Hispanic and unaffiliated voters in several states, according to election researchers.
Why it matters: Early voting patterns could signal heightened voter engagement, but don't necessarily predict overall turnout or which party will benefit.
House progressives are planning to use their growing power to force votes next year on their most sweeping and divisive policies, including Medicare for All, abolishing ICE and cutting aid to Israel.
Why it matters: The ultimate goal is to get these policies on the front burner for a Democratic president in 2029, even if that means forcing House Democrats into tough decisions.
