Axios

Federal prosecutors are investigating President Trump's 2017 inaugural committee to determine whether it misspent some of the recorded $107 million in donations it received, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Why it matters: The probe, being conducted by the Manhattan U.S. attorney's office, presents another threat for Trump and members of his 2016 campaign. If funds were improperly spent or if money was given in exchange for a political favor, the committee could be in violation of federal laws.

The Senate passed a resolution proposed by Sens. Bernie Sanders, Chris Murphy, and Mike Lee to pull U.S. support from the Saudi-led coalition in the war in Yemen by a 56-41 vote. President Trump says he'd veto the resolution if it reached his desk.

Why it matters: This is the first time the Senate has ever used congressional authority handed to them in the War Powers Act of 1973. The move stands as a rebuke of the Trump administration’s continued support of the Saudis in the face of the disaster unfolding in Yemen, and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Earlier on Thursday, the warring factions in Yemen made a significant step forward in agreeing on a ceasefire in vital the port city of Hodeidah.

President Trump doubled down on the claim that he's not responsible for campaign finance violations by Michael Cohen on Fox News Thursday, saying that investigators should be looking at Congress' "slush fund" for campaign violations instead.

"Michael Cohen [pleaded] guilty to something that's not even a crime. … Nobody except for me would be looked at like this. Nobody. What about Congress? The slush fund. Millions and millions of dollars paid out each year. They have a slush fund. Millions. They don't talk about campaign finance anything. Have you ever heard about campaign finance laws? Have they listed that on the campaign finance sheets? No."

Between the lines: This is a similar defense mechanism we’ve seen Trump use time and time again, such as directing the FBI to investigate Hillary Clinton after the 2016 election.

Dan and Axios CEO Jim VandeHei discuss how President Trump's next two years in office will be much more difficult than his first two, due primarily to factors now outside of his control.

Go deeper: Trump's rude awakening

National Security adviser John Bolton unveiled the Trump administration's Africa strategy on Thursday, saying the U.S. would revamp its aid and investments in the continent. The plan is largely designed to counter China and Russia.

Between the lines, from AP's Maria Danilova: "Any renewed U.S. effort to counter China in Africa, however, comes years late. China became the continent's top trading partner nearly a decade ago and has invested billions of dollars in high-profile infrastructure projects."

In an interview with Reuters, President Trump suggested he might be willing to trade an arrested Chinese executive for a better trade deal. Such an offer, experts tell Axios, is uncomfortably transactional, dangerous to U.S. institutions and alliances, and quite likely a constitutional no-no.

Background: The administration reportedly began discussing using Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of the global electronics giant Huawei, as a bargaining chip very soon after her arrest in Canada for violations of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

A day after schooling President Trump on-camera and then returning to the Hill to joke about his manhood, Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi extinguished a months-long revolt among some younger House Dems by agreeing to term limits for top leaders.

Why it matters: "Within moments of announcing she would restrict her time in the job [to no more than four additional years], seven of her critics distributed a statement promising to back" her in the final vote for speaker — a clinch, AP's Alan Fram reports. "It moves a 78-year-old white woman to the cusp of steering next year's diverse crop of House Democrats, with its large number of female, minority and younger members."

It is a fact President Trump had a consequential first two years: a huge tax cut, two Supreme Court justices and lots of regulations eliminated.

But it is also a fact that he did this in the kind of political environment all presidents dream of but few ever got: full control of government in peaceful and prosperous times. His job now is not just harder — it’s exponentially harder.

Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday she would officially support term limits for the top three House Democratic leaders, and step down from her position as speaker no later than 2022, the Washington Post reports.

Details: The agreement allows officials to run for a fourth term, but only with the approval of a two-thirds majority of the caucus. Pelosi retroactively applied her previous terms, only allowing her to serve one more term without needing the caucus's approval.

House Freedom Caucus chair Mark Meadows is no longer being considered as a replacement to White House chief of staff John Kelly, Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement Wednesday.

"Congressman Mark Meadows is a great friend to President Trump and is doing an incredible job in [C]ongress. The President told him we need him in Congress so he can continue the great work he is doing there."

Why it matters: As Axios' Jonathan Swan previously reported, President Trump had floated the idea of installing Meadows as Kelly's permanent replacement after his first choice, Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff Nick Ayers, fell through. A source with direct knowledge has told Axios that Trump will make a decision on Kelly's replacement by the end of the year.

An international conflict group reported this week that casualties from the war in Yemen has surpassed 60,000 since 2016, the Associated Press reports.

Where things stand: While the war rages on and the death toll climbs, Washington is divided. It's a clear struggle between those in Congress who believe a message must be sent to Saudi Arabia, and the president, who has refused to break from the Saudis.

The House Intelligence Committee will be launching a "deep dive" into journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder, Rep. Adam Schiff, the incoming chair of the committee, told CNN's Manu Raju. The House Foreign Affairs Committee will be holding hearings on the matter as well, Rep. Eliot Engel said.

Why it matters: The CIA has reportedly concluded that Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman directed the killing, a conclusion President Trump has disputed. CIA director Gina Haspel briefed House leadership on the matter Wednesday following her briefing to the Senate last week.

The Southern District of New York announced Wednesday that it has reached a non-prosecution agreement with American Media Inc., the National Enquirer's parent company.

The big picture: As part of the agreement, AMI admitted to making a $150,000 payment "in concert with" then-candidate Trump's presidential campaign to suppress a story about an alleged affair Trump had with former Playboy model Karen McDougal. The revelation that AMI is cooperating with investigators comes on the same day Trump's personal attorney Michael Cohen was sentenced to three years in prison on charges that include campaign finance violations. AMI's CEO David Pecker was granted immunity in the case in August.

President Trump's former personal attorney Michael Cohen has been sentenced in a New York federal court to 3 years in prison on Wednesday on charges involving campaign finance violations, tax evasion and lying to Congress. He will report to federal prison on March 6.

The big picture: Cohen's sentence involves his plea agreements with prosecutors in both the Southern District of New York and the Mueller investigation, which took starkly different views on his cooperation last week. The New York prosecutors recommended about 4 years in prison, while Mueller's team had a more positive view, arguing that Cohen deserved credit for substantially assisting their investigation.

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro announced today he's forming an exploratory committee to run for president in 2020. He will make his final decision about running on Jan. 12, per AP.

Why it matters: This gives Castro an early start for courting donors, potential campaign staffers and media attention. The 44-year-old former San Antonio mayor will have more time to build his name ID and brand, which is crucial if his fellow Texan Beto O'Rourke throws his hat in the ring, too.

Senate Democrats made it official yesterday, elevating West Virginia's Joe Manchin to ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Why it matters: The decision came over the opposition of some progressive groups, who are upset with Manchin's support for fossil fuel development and political contributions from coal and oil companies.

President Trump today is expected to sign an executive order related to opportunity zones, a part of last year's tax bill designed to increase investment and economic development in underserved communities.

The big picture: The signing was supposed to happen at a big event in Baltimore, but it now will take place in the White House. The official explanation for canceling on Charm City was "scheduling," but it couldn't have helped that neither Maryland's Republican Gov. Larry Hogan nor Baltimore's Democratic Mayor Catherine Pugh planned to attend. Or maybe it's the reports on how Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump could personally benefit from the opportunity zones, which they've championed, via their existing real estate holdings.

Almost 70 former federal and state judges called on acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement director Ronald Vitiello to stop arresting people suspected of entering the country illegally at courthouses, arguing in a joint letter that such a move would "restore the public’s confidence that it can safely pursue justice in our nation’s courts," AP reports.

Details: The judges want ICE to add courthouses to its list of "sensitive" locations, which are free from immigration enforcement and currently include schools and churches. Arrests at courthouses occurred throughout President Obama's tenure, but lawyers and advocates told AP that it has increased under President Trump.

Here's why the political world isn't writing off a potential presidential candidate who's mainly known for a failed Senate race: The last two presidents have been disruptive candidates who didn't have much political experience either — and who weren't the nominees the party establishments wanted.

Why it matters: Barack Obama had only been a U.S. senator for two years before launching his presidential campaign, and Donald Trump had never held elective office at all. Now, a new poll from the progressive group MoveOn suggests that Beto O'Rourke is poised to blow up the 2020 Democratic primary. That's a sign that it doesn't matter who the parties want anymore, because it's up to the voters.

Attorneys representing former Trump campaign aide Michael Flynn, who briefly served as a White House national security adviser, recommended to a federal judge Tuesday that Flynn serve "a term of probation not to exceed one year, with minimal conditions of supervision, along with 200 hours of community service" for charges related to lying to federal investigators.

The details: The request comes a week after Mueller recommended no prison time for Flynn, citing his "substantial assistance" with his wide-ranging Russia investigation. In the 178-page sentencing memo, Flynn’s attorney’s made reference to his long military service, included letters of support and cited his significant cooperation with the special counsel Robert Mueller. Flynn, who pleaded guilty last year to lying to the FBI, is facing a statutory maximum sentence of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine. But under his plea deal, he is eligible for a sentence of zero to six months and can ask to court to waive any fine. His sentencing is scheduled for Dec. 18.