Axios

President Trump's signature is set to appear on U.S. currency — a first for a sitting president — as Americans use physical cash less than ever.

Why it matters: Cash still carries outsized symbolic power — even as its role in everyday payments shrinks.

The Iran war is sending longer-term borrowing costs surging amid prospects for higher inflation, fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts and more federal borrowing.

Why it matters: Higher rates create new pressure for an already-faltering housing sector, make the U.S. government's fiscal challenges worse and could weigh on business investment and consumers alike.

For only the third time ever, there are more women employed in the U.S. than men, according to federal data highlighted in a report from Indeed, the jobs site.

Why it matters: This isn't quite a women's empowerment story — what's happening in part is that traditional male-dominated occupations are shrinking, while female-led jobs are growing.

Between the lines: Overall, those jobs pay less than ones held by men.

• "If you're seeing a shift toward more female employment, all else equal, you would see a shift toward lower wages," Laura Ullrich, economic research director at Indeed, tells Axios.

Two dynamics are driving the shift:

1. The fastest-growing sector of the job market, particularly over the past year, is health care, where women dominate. Job growth in construction and manufacturing has been relatively flat or negative.

2. Men's participation in the job market has been declining. Male employment fell overall by 142,000 jobs from February 2025 to February 2026, Ullrich notes.

• That's also partly because the immigration crackdown pushed a lot more men out of the workforce and restricted their entry into it.

Friction point: It would seem like a no-brainer for more men to move into health care, but they so far have been reluctant to take jobs that can be perceived as "women's work."

• "There's no inherent reason that 95% of speech language pathologists are women," Ullrich says. "That's a good job. It pays six figures."
• "Men are missing out in the labor market because there are too many 'no-go' zones for male workers," economist Richard Reeves, founder of the advocacy group American Institute for Boys and Men, tells Axios.

Zoom out: For a long time, there was a big push to get more women into STEM (science, technology, engineering and math).

• But there's been less of an effort to push more men into health care, or what Reeves calls HEAL professions: jobs in health and education that require literacy.
• Getting more men into jobs in health, social care and education matters for gender representation in those vital fields and would address labor shortages, he says.
• "It is also essential for improving job prospects for men themselves."

Flashback: The first time women outnumbered men in the job market was in the wake of the recession after the financial crisis. Male-dominated positions in construction and manufacturing were hard hit.

• The second time, the economy was booming just before the pandemic. Women who had made gains in education — with a growing share of college degrees — seemed better positioned to take advantage of the changing economy, as the New York Times noted then.
• What's happening now is basically a return to that trend line.

When the Iran war started, market analysts issued reassuring notes: Short-lived geopolitical shocks don't typically rattle the stock market, they said.

Why it matters: We're now into month two of conflict. Equities are wobbling, and investors are growing increasingly skeptical of President Trump's assurances.

Where it stands: The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is now down 11% from its record-high close on Oct. 29 — officially entering correction territory.

• The Russell 2000, an index tracking smaller companies, landed in correctionville last week.
• The S&P 500 has held up a bit better, but it's down 7.2% from its closing high.

Catch up quick: Minutes after the market closed Thursday, Trump posted that he was extending the deadline for Iran negotiations.

• "As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 days." That would bring his latest deadline to Monday, April 6.

The latest: That statement didn't calm the markets for long. Oil prices spiked to around $110 a barrel when the market reopened.

• "While the delay might reduce some of the immediate escalation risk, it offers no new visibility on the path toward resolution," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note this morning.

The big picture: If the market does take a another leg down, the effects on American households would be more pronounced than in previous oil price shock moments.

• Nearly 40% of household wealth in the U.S. is tied up in stocks — compared with about 10% during the 1990 oil price shock, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn said in a note yesterday.
• That means Americans would be hit with a double whammy from the geopolitical conflict: higher energy prices and lower brokerage account balances. That in turn would be a drag on overall economic growth, as households cut back on spending.
• It would also be another downer to the consumer mood.

Zoom out: The stock market doesn't typically take kindly to long periods of high oil prices stemming from Middle East Conflict.

• Over the past 50 years, there were nine oil price shocks, where prices rose 20% or more, according to an analysis from Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at JPMorgan Private Bank.

Zoom in: Four of those shocks led to a selloff in stocks — an S&P decline greater than 10%:

• The 1973 oil embargo, the Iranian hostage crisis, the 1990 Gulf war and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
• In each case, oil prices rose more than 50%.

Stunning stat: The price of Brent crude is up nearly 40% from the beginning of the war.

Yes, but: It's not just the oil price that triggered the selloff, Seydl writes. Each of those selloffs coincided with either a recession in the six months after the shock or Federal Reserve interest rate increases.

• The past doesn't predict the future.

What to watch: Weekend postings by Trump. The president has had a tendency to escalate the conflict with Iran with social media posts on Saturdays and Sundays that in turn has driven a lot of market volatility.

The U.S. Senate voted overnight to pass a bill that would reopen all of the Department of Homeland Security, except a few immigration enforcement agencies.

Why it matters: The vote puts Congress one step closer to ending a 42-day shutdown that has resulted in widespread airport security disruptions and missed paychecks for hundreds of thousands of workers at key national security agencies.

Following the Senate's push to ban institutional investors from owning single-family homes, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is now pressing the corporate landlords that hold multifamily apartments and manufactured homes.

Why it matters: These companies, including private equity and publicly traded real estate firms, are taking heat from lawmakers and the president over a housing affordability crisis that's gripped the country in recent years.

Where it stands: This week, Warren sent letters to 14 corporate landlords, including Blackstone, Starwood and Invitation Homes, seeking more information on:

• The number of properties they or their affiliates own or have sold, rents charged, evictions conducted and more. The letter asks for a detailed accounting of complaints by renters across their properties.
• The letter to Starwood, viewed by Axios, also requests information on any communications the company has had with the Trump administration.

Catch up quick: Earlier this month, the Senate passed the ROAD to Housing Act by a 89-10 vote. The product of negotiations between Warren and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the bill would ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes.

• The provision is getting big pushback from House conservatives who are calling it "socialism." The big housing companies also say they're being unfairly targeted.
• Institutional investors hold just 3% of single-family homes in the U.S., Warren notes.

Yes, but: Blackstone has said that the number is even smaller — with investors owning 0.5% of single-family homes and it holding just 0.06%. "Far too immaterial to impact rents or markets," it said in an earlier release.

• The firm argues that single-family rental homes enhance housing affordability.

Zoom in: These companies play a bigger role in manufactured housing and multifamily rentals.

• In her letter, Warren says they are responsible for higher rents and eviction rates.

What they're saying: "America is facing a housing crisis with skyrocketing costs and a severe shortage of affordable housing supply," she writes.

• "Wall Street and giant corporate landlords are making the crisis worse by gobbling up homes and apartment complexes, jacking up housing costs across the country, and using aggressive and discriminatory tactics to push up profits at the expense of families."

The other side: "Our members offer quality homes to hardworking families who prefer the flexibility of renting or who are not yet positioned to buy," said the National Rental Home Council, a trade association that represents Invitation Homes and other big institutional landlords.

The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending at least 10,000 additional combat troops to the Middle East in the coming days, according to a senior U.S. defense official.

Why it matters: If the Trump administration decides to send extra troops, it will significantly increase the number of combat soldiers the U.S. has in the region. It is another signal that a U.S. ground operation in Iran is being seriously prepared.

A new type of community is emerging for working moms who want to connect with each other beyond parenting and their careers.

Why it matters: Many women are simultaneously managing households, careers and social lives — and searching for community with others navigating a similar reality.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Republican senators Thursday night that they need to "work together to ensure that DHS, including ICE and Border Patrol, is funded in a sustainable manner for the rest of the year."

Why it matters: Thune (R-S.D.) appears to be holding out hope that he can fund the rest of DHS through the traditional appropriations process "so that we can then focus our reconciliation efforts on ICE and the Border Patrol," according to an email Thune sent to Senate offices.

A federal judge on Thursday paused the Trump administration's designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk, marking an early legal victory for the embattled company.

Why it matters: Anthropic argued that the designation was causing immediate and irreparable harm as business partners rethink their contracts and federal agencies remove Claude.

President Trump announced Thursday that he would sign an order to circumvent Congress and restore pay for TSA workers.

Why it matters: The maneuver could help ease widespread delays and disruptions at U.S. airports that have threatened to raise voter ire. It also undermines efforts to strike a deal in the Senate to end the DHS shutdown, now well into its second month.

Crypto investors will soon have a new path to home financing, as Better Home & Finance and Coinbase today introduced a new product tied to Fannie Mae-backed mortgages.

Why it matters: The move is the latest sign of crypto pushing further into mainstream finance — and shows how digital assets are beginning to plug into traditional systems like the U.S. mortgage market.

HOUSTON — Several top energy executives and a federal regulator had a message Thursday for Americans angry about soaring electricity bills: Help is on the way.

Why it matters: The cost of electricity — which has spiked across much of the country over the past year — has become a top-tier political issue, with Democrats making it a focus of their affordability push.

President Trump extended the deadline for negotiations with Iran and paused his threat to bomb Iranian energy facilities by another 10 days.

Why it matters: The Trump administration through a group of mediators, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, has asked Tehran to hold a high-level meeting this week to discuss a U.S. proposal for ending the war.

The U.S. Postal Service is seeking to add its first-ever fuel surcharge on packages — an 8% increase — as oil and diesel prices surge.

Why it matters: The Iran war is now pushing up shipping costs — and retailers and consumers are next in line to feel it.

The Middle East conflict wiped out what would have been a modest upgrade to global growth and a stable inflation picture.

• That has been replaced with a fresh warning about soaring energy costs and U.S. prices, which are projected to run far hotter than expected.

Why it matters: What was a more manageable inflation story now looks like a pressure test for central banks that may need to raise interest rates — or hold off on further cuts — even as growth weakens.

Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, has said repeatedly that he wants the central bank to have a smaller imprint on financial markets. Doing so will be easier said than done.

The big picture: That is the upshot of new research being presented Thursday by Stanford economist Darrell Duffie. He gives a menu of options for how the Fed could shrink its $6.7 trillion balance sheet.

• The good news for Warsh is that it's plausible to accomplish balance sheet shrinkage without major disruption to money markets. The bad news is that it involves complexity and trade-offs.

As the Company Formerly Known as Twitter prepares to go public, its former CEO is raising money for a very different venture.

Driving the news: eMed, an employee telehealth company led by Linda Yaccarino, this morning announced $200 million in new funding at a post-money valuation north of $2 billion.

At a Senate hearing earlier this month, economist Martha Gimbel compared a wonky thing, the U.S. Treasury market, to something very relatable, a Hallmark rom-com.

Why it matters: She hit at the essence of what's confounding experts in government debt:

• Why haven't bond investors penalized the U.S. for its erratic policymaking and weakening institutions by meaningfully driving up the country's borrowing costs?

The big picture: Gimbel and other experts believe that the answer is that there's not yet a good alternative to the enormous market for Treasurys, so investors stick with the "cleanest dirty shirt."

• "People think that U.S. Treasurys are the only large safe asset, so people are still buying them," Ugo Panizza, an economist and director of the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, told Axios earlier this year.

The U.S. is "currently the boyfriend at the beginning of the Hallmark movie in the big city, where the girlfriend is still going out with him, even though she knows that it's wrong," Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, put it.

• "But at some point, it, she's going to go home to the small town and find the nice firefighter and realize that there's another option."
• "And we don't know when that will happen."

Between the lines: Metaphors are good for getting people's attention on issues that are hard to grasp.

• Gimbel even got a laugh out of the room — no small feat at a hearing before the Senate Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth.

What to watch: If investors ever find a better option than Treasurys, that would be a huge problem given that we are borrowing a lot of money right now.

The latest: The energy shock driven by the Iran war has helped drive up the yields on U.S. debt.

• The MOVE Index, which tracks volatility in the Treasury market, is spiking above its 52-week average — as it has during other moments of economic shock.
• "Investors' concerns include an unsustainable American fiscal position, rising inflation risk and a growing uncertainty about war," RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a note Wednesday.

How it works: There are reasons for investors to be wary of buying sovereign debt.

• Governments are hard to sue, and it's difficult to enforce your claims against them.
• "They can do things that private companies can't, like pass laws and inflate their currencies," Panizza and University of Virginia international law professor Mitu Gulati explained in a piece for Reuters last summer.

Zoom out: That's why the countries that attract the most investors are the trustworthy ones with strong institutions. They are rewarded with lower borrowing costs.

• 17th-century England is the textbook example. It was able to borrow more because it had effective institutions that checked the king's temptations, per a well-known paper from 1989.
• This helped the country become a superpower.

What they're saying: The U.S. is still considered exceptional among investors, says Layna Mosley, a professor of politics and international affairs who directs the Princeton Sovereign Finance Lab.

The bottom line: Investors still see the U.S. as the safest bet around, but if ever a new hometown hottie materializes — watch out.

Starbucks is leaning on protein to help drive customer traffic — and new data shared with Axios shows demand peaking Friday mornings.

Why it matters: Protein coffee and drinks are emerging as a key part of Starbucks' turnaround — driving people to try new products and make repeat visits, as demand grows for quick, functional options.

The average annual bonus on Wall Street last year was $246,900, up 6% from 2024, according to data out Thursday morning from the New York state comptroller's office.

Why it matters: Higher bonuses are a sign that finance had a good year — the market turmoil and uncertainty caused by the Trump administration's tariffs only helped boost business across Wall Street trading desks.