There's one sentence in the last paragraph of the GOP memo that could thwart President Trump's efforts to discredit the Russia probe, the Washington Post points out. “The Papadopoulos information triggered the opening of an FBI counterintelligence investigation in late July 2016 by FBI agent Pete Strzok."
Why it matters: This line undermines the argument that the FBI counterintelligence investigation happened because the Trump dossier set it in motion. Instead, it points to a former Trump campaign associate (who has since been charged in Mueller's probe) as the reason.
A group of 12 bipartisan lawmakers, led by Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Chris Smith, has nominated 3 controversial Hong Kong leaders and "the entire pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong" to the Nobel Peace Prize Committee.
Why it matters: U.S. lawmakers, and especially Rubio, appear to be ramping up the human rights pressure on the PRC. It may go nowhere but it is at least another sign of the growing contentiousness in U.S.-China relations.
The Vatican appears close to a deal with Beijing to settle a long running dispute over who has the power to appoint bishops, Reuters reports.
Why it matters: The Vatican, which believes there are roughly 10 million–15 million Catholics in China, appears to be bending to the will of the atheist Chinese Communist Party. This is a concern to Taiwan, because a Beijing-Vatican official diplomatic rapprochement would require the Vatican to drop official diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favor of the PRC.
"A decade has passed since Larry Diamond, a political scientist at Stanford University, put forward the idea of a global 'democratic recession.' The tenth edition of the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index suggests that this unwelcome trend remains firmly in place," The Economist writes.
The United Kingdom's government is debating a deal that would keep the country in the European Union's customs union for goods after Brexit, according to a new report by the FT. While such a plan would greatly reduce the geopolitical intricacies of Brexit, it would effectively prevent the U.K. from negotiating its own trade deals with other countries on goods — though it could do so for services, the majority of its economy, which would be a novel concept for international trade.
Why it matters: Pro-Brexit advocates in Prime Minister Theresa May's own Conservative Party will hate the news as they desire a clean and total break from the EU, especially on trade. She's already on thin ice with many of her party members — and her position could get even more tenuous.
Three lawyers for Rick Gates, the Trump campaign aide and Paul Manafort business partner who was indicted in October by Robert Mueller, are withdrawing as counsel, Politico reports.
Why it matters: As Politico notes, "speculation has been mounting that [Gates] might be seeking to cooperate with the Mueller investigation."
What's next: Gates' criminal trial isn't expected to begin until September.
The U.S. Treasury released this week a long-anticipated report of Russian oligarchs and Kremlin officials, as required by the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act signed into law last summer by President Trump. Section 241 of that legislation mandated that Treasury provide a list of senior political figures, oligarchs and "parastatal entities" close to the Kremlin, including an assessment of their net worth.
While there is also a classified version, the public report is basically a "who's who" of Russia — more than 200 individuals, including all the Russian cabinet ministers, presidential aides and 96 of the 200 oligarchs from the Forbes billionaire's list (96 marked the net-worth threshold for inclusion, at $1 billion). There are also individuals on the list who are already sanctioned by the U.S., like Oleg Deripaska, and others who are unlikely ever to face sanctions. (Axios highlighted several of them here.)
By publishing a list that is broad rather than differentiated to include the many proxies and cut-outs that the Kremlin elite use to hide their assets, the administration showed itself to be overcautious as best and incompetent or uncoordinated at worst.
A new bill passed by Poland's Senate on Thursday would make it illegal to refer to concentration camps like Auschwitz, which was in Nazi-occupied Poland, as "Polish death camps," or to "accuse Poles of complicity in crimes committed by Nazi Germany." CNN reports.
Why it matters: The bill is fiercely opposed by Israel, and the World Holocaust Remembrance Center has said it ignores "historical truths regarding the assistance the Germans received from the Polish population during the Holocaust."
France will begin offering credits to Iranian buyers of French goods later this year, Reuters reports citing the head of Bpifrance, a state-owned investment bank. Such a move would be designed to increase trade without violating U.S. sanctions against Iran.
Why it matters: The move could anger President Trump, who has threatened to pull the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear agreement that lifted many economic sanctions on Iran. Per Reuters, other European governments have been looking for work-arounds to allow their companies to trade with Iran without risking repercussions.
The White House is considering presenting President Trump's Middle East peace plan even if the crisis with the Palestinian Authority continues and Palestinian President Abbas refuses to come to the negotiating table, senior U.S. officials tell me.
The bottom line: The U.S. officials say the administration won't impose on the Israelis or Palestinians to accept the plan, but may release it so the parties and international community can judge it at face value.
28 Russian athletes had their Olympic doping bans overturned Thursday after the Court of Arbitration for Sport ruled there’s a lack of evidence proving the athletes had broken rules at the 2014 Olympics in Sochi, the Associated Press reports.
Why it matters: The ruling, which comes nearly a week before the start of this year’s Winter Games in Pyeongchang, means the athletes’ results in Sochi will stand.
President Trump is expected to approve the release of the Devin Nunes-authored memo alleging FISA abuse by U.S. intelligence agencies this morning, reports The Washington Post. After his approval, which will include some redactions requested by the FBI, the White House will send the memo back to the House Intelligence Committee, which could then release the document.
A majority of Americans (71%) believe that President Donald Trump should agree to be interviewed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, according to a new poll from Monmouth University. If he does, 82% of Americans believe he should do so oath, including 93% of Democrats, 85% of independents and 67% of Republicans.
Why it matters: Trump told reporters last week that he would be willing to speak to Mueller under oath, a claim that White House lawyer Ty Cobb later walked back. Sources close to the president later told Axios' Jonathan Swan they think Trump would be unable to avoid perjuring himself.
