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National

Former first lady Rosalynn Carter died on Sunday afternoon in Plains, Georgia, at 96 years old, per the Carter Center.

The big picture: An influential figure in the career of her husband, former President Jimmy Carter, Rosalynn paved her own legacy, championing mental health and participating in policymaking as a trailblazing "full partner."

"Rosalynn was my equal partner in everything I ever accomplished," former President Carter, who himself entered hospice in February, said in a statement Sunday.

"She gave me wise guidance and encouragement when I needed it. As long as Rosalynn was in the world, I always knew somebody loved and supported me."

Rosalynn entered hospice care earlier this month, her grandson Jason Carter announced on Friday. She had been diagnosed with dementia in May.

What they're saying: President Biden and first lady Jill Biden in a Sunday evening statement remembered Rosalynn Carter for "inspiring a nation and the world" as she did "so much to address many of society's greatest needs."

Jill Biden spoke during a meeting with service members and their families at a naval station in Norfolk, Virginia earlier in the evening of how Rosalynn Carter "was well known for her efforts on mental health and caregiving and women's rights."

Zoom in: The longest-married American presidential couple tied the knot in 1946 in their small hometown of Plains, Georgia, after knowing each other almost their whole lives. (In fact, Jimmy Carter's mother, who was a nurse, helped deliver baby Rosalynn.)

Carter called marrying Rosalynn "the best thing I ever did."

The couple returned to Plains after leaving the White House and remained based there ever since — in the same house they built in 1961.

A graduate of Georgia Southwestern College and valedictorian of her high school, Rosalynn ran the office of the family's peanut business. 

She was a full-fledged campaigner throughout her husband's political life, often traveling solo as they crisscrossed his district when he ran for state senate, then all of Georgia, and later, the country.

While in the White House, she was known to sit in on cabinet meetings and was the original first lady to set up a policy office in the East Wing.

The Carters celebrated 75 years of marriage in July 2021 with a party that included 300 guests, such as Bill and Hillary Clinton, singer Garth Brooks and civil rights icon Andrew Young.

Zoom out: Rosalynn championed a number of causes throughout her life, including mental health policy reform, which she took up while serving as Georgia's first lady in the early 1970s.

In the White House, she became honorary chair of the President's Commission on Mental Health and was a major influence on the passage of the Mental Health Systems Act of 1980.

After leaving Washington, the husband and wife team founded the Atlanta-based Carter Center in 1982. The center houses Jimmy Carter's presidential library and an active, influential nonprofit focused on "waging peace, fighting disease and building hope."

The center has undertaken a broad range of global programs, including international conflict resolution, election monitoring, and campaigns to eradicate diseases such as river blindness and Guinea worm. 

Under Rosalynn's leadership, the center has also maintained a mental health focus, offering hundreds of journalists around the world fellowships to cover mental health, and advocating at the state and federal levels to achieve equity in health insurance coverage.

Of note: Rosalynn was a lifelong advocate for caregivers after helping her mother take care of her father, who was diagnosed with leukemia at 44, and her grandfather. 

In 1987, she founded the Rosalynn Carter Institute for Caregivers at her alma mater to support the cause. 

At the time she said, "There are only four kinds of people in this world: those who have been caregivers, those who are currently caregivers, those who will be caregivers and those who will need caregivers."

Along with her husband, Rosalynn received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 1999. She was inducted into the National Women's Hall of Fame in 2001.

She wrote five books and enjoyed fly-fishing, bird-watching, and swimming, per the Carter Center.

Rosalynn is survived by her 99-year-old husband, their four children — Jack, Chip, Jeff, and Amy — and 11 grandchildren and 14 great-grandchildren, per the Carter Center.

The last word: Asked once how she would like to be remembered, per the Carter Center, Rosalynn said: "I would like for people to think that I took advantage of the opportunities I had and did the best I could."

Then-first lady Rosalynn Carter climbs the steps to a plane during a trip in September 1978. Photo: Diana Walker/Getty Images

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comment from first lady Jill Biden and an excerpt from her statement with President Biden.

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Former first lady Rosalynn Carter dies at 96

She paved her own legacy, championing mental health and participating in policymaking.

Former president Jimmy Carter and former first lady Rosalynn Carter in 2015. Photo: Michael Kovac/WireImage via Getty Images

Jimmy Carter

Politics & Policy

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

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Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Data: Ballotpedia; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals. Note: The chart does not include independent campaigns.

The Republican presidential field is smaller and shrinking faster than eight years ago, raising the chances former President Trump finds himself in a head-t0-head contest in some early primary states.

Why it matters: The goal for most remaining candidates is to make themselves the sole alternative to Trump, who is still heavily favored to win the nomination.

The faster they can get there, the better they like their chances.

Driving the news: Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has vacuumed up many of Sen. Tim Scott's (R-S.C.) major donors after her fellow South Carolinian dropped out last week.

"This is a two-person race — between one man and one woman," Haley campaign communications director Nachama Soloveichik told Axios. 

Haley announced an eye-popping $10 million ad campaign in New Hampshire and Iowa next month, and new donors could further bolster her campaign's final push to overtake Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the earliest contests.

DeSantis, meanwhile, raised $2 million in 48 hours last week, showing an ability to expand his high-dollar donor base after many of his donors had already maxed out.

What they're saying: The GOP consolidation is happening faster than anyone anticipated, multiple people involved in the campaigns tell Axios.

"The person that hurts the most is Donald Trump," Kristin Davison, the chief operating officer of DeSantis' super PAC, said on the rapidly shrinking candidate pool. "He was banking on a crowded field, well through Iowa."

"Maybe the debates are the cause, but what's really sped it up is Trump's total domination," said Scott Reed, a co-chairman of the PAC that was supporting former Vice President Mike Pence.

"There's a massive amount of pressure from everything from the establishment conservative media to donors for a non-Trump candidate — for that to coalesce," one GOP political strategist told Axios. 

That puts more pressure on candidates to bow out and get behind someone else once it is clear they don't have a shot at being the one to take on Trump.

Yes, but: Not everyone is folding to the pressure: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's campaign sent a memo to donors Friday signaling he will stay in the race through the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23 — and potentially well beyond.

The other side: Trump benefits from his semi-incumbent advantage and dominates in the polls. His team says it's not worried.

"We understand that there is a whole industry and game board built around the dungeons and dragons, pontificating political class about 'what ifs,'" said Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump strategist, told Axios.

"But the data does prove a consolidation — a consolidation behind Donald Trump against anyone in a head-to-head matchup," he added.

GOP presidential candidates with active campaigns, by month

Data: Ballotpedia; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

By the numbers: After Scott suspended his campaign last week, there are now eight active GOP candidates vying for the nomination, according to data pulled by Ballotpedia.

In mid-November 2015, there were 15. Twelve of them stayed in until the Iowa caucus on Feb. 1, 2016. Seven dropped out by Super Tuesday the following month.

By the end of November 2019, Democrats had 18 candidates — a record in the modern era. Joe Biden's resounding victory in South Carolina on Feb. 29, 2020, led to a dramatic consolidation of the field before Super Tuesday.

That set up a spring contest between Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), with Democrats deciding that the more moderate candidate represented their best chance to defeat Trump.

The bottom line: Last week's GOP debate in Miami — two months before the Iowa caucuses — had five participants. Next month's will likely have four or fewer, depending on who meets the more stringent qualifications.

In February of 2016, three days before the New Hampshire primary, the Saint Anselm College GOP debate still had seven candidates.

The incredible shrinking GOP presidential field

"The person that hurts the most is Donald Trump."

2024 presidential election

Another ugly poll for President Biden — this time from NBC News — shows his approval rating has hit a new low of 40%, and that he's trailing Trump for the first time in 16 editions of the survey dating back to 2019.

Why it matters: Each round of bad polling produces a polar reaction from the two main factions of the Democratic Party — a dynamic that's likely to grow more intense if the trend continues in the coming months.

Biden skeptics see the polls as evidence that the president — who turns 81 Monday — should drop out before he facilitates Trump's inevitable return to the White House in 2024.

The Biden campaign and its allies largely brush off and even mock the Democratic "bed-wetters," insisting that polls are meaningless this far out from the election.

Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina chimes in on X.

Between the lines: New York Times polling guru Nate Cohn laid out two sets of facts on X that both sides would do well to internalize:

"It's a year before the election, so polls aren't 'predictive,'" wrote Cohn, who analyzed the NYT/Siena battleground polls that triggered so much consternation this month.

"The voters know these candidates well, so what they say is worth taking seriously. Indeed, campaigns taking it seriously may even contribute to changing the numbers over the next years."

Zoom in: CNN's Harry Enten has his own helpful analysis on Biden's "near-historic deficit" as an incumbent president — which again, isn't necessarily predictive of what will happen in 2024.

Over the past 80 years, the only incumbent to trail his opponent one year out from the election was Trump — who was behind Biden by about 10 points in November 2019.

Trump did not lead Biden in any national poll that met CNN's standards for publication the entire 2020 cycle; so far this cycle, Trump has already led Biden in 17 such surveys.

The bottom line: "We're going to have to earn our re-elect, there's no doubt about it," Vice President Kamala Harris told CNN on Sunday, reflecting the "serious but not predictive" perspective on Biden's bad polls.

How to read Biden's bad polls

A new NBC News poll shows Biden is trailing Trump for the first time in the history of the survey.

Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Biden approval rating

Negotiations to secure a deal for the release of dozens of hostages being held in Gaza are back on and showing modest progress after a pause lasting several days, three sources with direct knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Behind the scenes: Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, went silent and stopped engaging with Hamas representatives at the talks in Doha after the Israeli military raided Gaza City's Al-Shifa hospital last week, leading to a suspension of the talks. Within the last 24 hours, Sinwar has re-engaged, the sources say. 

Sinwar sent a new response to the Qatari mediators which indicated a narrowing of some of the gaps between the parties, but not yet enough to reach a deal, according to two of the sources.

Catch up quick: More than 240 people, including several Americans, were abducted during the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack.

Four hostages, including two Americans, have since been released, one has been rescued and two others were found dead.

State of play: The talks between Israel, the U.S. and Hamas are being mediated by Qatar.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said on Sunday that he is confident a deal is close and the gaps between the parties are small and mostly of logistical nature.

Two sources tell Axios the details of the deal haven't been fully determined yet and there are changes every day. "Sometimes there are changes every hour," one source said.

Details: If a deal is reached it will be implemented in two phases, the sources with direct knowledge say: 

In the first phase, Hamas is to release around 50 women and children in exchange for a five-day pause in the fighting. 

As the five-day pause continues, Hamas will locate more women and children that it claims are being held hostage by other factions so that they could be released in a second phase.

Sinwar has agreed in principle to increase the number of women and children who will be released under the two-phase deal to more than the 50 he originally agreed to, according to two of the sources.

But Sinwar is demanding that Israel halt its aerial surveillance of Gaza for six hours per day during the pause so that Hamas operatives will be able to locate hostages without being spied on by Israel, the sources said.

Hamas resumes hostage talks and narrows gaps with Israel, sources say

Hamas stopped talking after Israel raided al-Shifa hospital, but the talks are now back on.

Axios

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Former first lady Rosalynn Carter dies at 96

The incredible shrinking GOP presidential field

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