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National

The Biden re-election campaign's decision to brand the economy under the president's name (Bidenomics) is looking like an early blunder that misread the public's deep pessimism about how things are going on that front.

Why it matters: Despite some encouraging economic trends — unemployment is low, inflation seems to be tamed — polling shows that Americans' overall perception of the economy is sour.

Driving the news: Some prominent Democrats are now openly criticizing the Biden campaign's strategy, arguing that it appears to be in denial of Americans' economic reality.

"We have to do a better job framing this not so much for one person — for the office of the presidency — but for the people," Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) told Politico.

"I've never understood why you would brand an economy in your name when the economy hasn't fully recovered yet," Michael LaRosa, a former spokesman for Jill Biden, told the publication.

"Whatever stories Americans are told about the strength of the economy under President Joe Biden, they are not going to be persuaded to look past the issue of their own living standards," liberal economist James Galbraith wrote.

Zoom in: One of the Biden campaign's first advertisements carried a Reaganesque "Morning in America" vibe, arguing the nation's economy is "leading the world" while crediting the president's agenda for bringing the U.S. back from the brink.

Biden's messaging has been geared toward working-class Americans. He joined the UAW picket line this week in Michigan, and spoke to blue-collar workers in Philadelphia on Labor Day.

Last month, Biden gave a speech on Bidenomics in Prince George's County, Maryland, in which he said: "For the first time in a long time, we've climbed out of our great economic crisis. It's beginning to work for working people."

His campaign ads laud the passage of COVID emergency funds, the bipartisan infrastructure law, the Inflation Reduction Act and funding for semiconductor manufacturing.

But so far, the message isn't resonating — especially among the working-class Americans he's trying to win over. Polling indicates that college-educated voters are generally satisfied with the state of the economy, but voters living paycheck to paycheck are disillusioned.

By the numbers: Only 28% of Americans said they were "very" or "somewhat" satisfied with the state of the economy in a new NBC poll — the lowest level of economic satisfaction in nearly a decade of the network's polling.

Biden's economic approval rating sits at 37%, with 59% of respondents expressing disapproval of his performance.

The NBC survey showed that Republicans hold a whopping 21-point advantage over Democrats on the economy (49%-28%), the largest lead Republicans have held in 32 years.

The poll also shows that Democrats only hold a 2-point edge (36%-34%) on looking out for the middle class, an area in which the party typically holds a significant advantage.

Between the lines: Look beyond the headlines and it's easy to see why so many middle- and working-class Americans are feeling economic pain.

Bloomberg reported this week that Americans outside the wealthiest 20% of the country "have run out of extra savings and now have less cash on hand than they did when the pandemic began," according to a Federal Reserve study on household finances.

Consumers buying new houses or cars are starting to feel the sting of higher interest rates, especially now that some of the savings stored up during the pandemic have been spent.

Gas prices, often the most noticeable economic pain point for consumers, are going up again. The average price of regular unleaded gas is now $3.82 — close to a yearlong high.

What they're saying: "Next year's election is going to be a choice. We're talking about a vision of Bidenomics and his accomplishments, versus the other side who are all united in the same kind of right-wing MAGAnomics agenda like the Trump tax cuts geared to the wealthiest corporations," a Biden campaign adviser told Axios.

Biden advisers also are skeptical of the quality of public polling and point to a pattern of Democrats performing well in lower-turnout, localized special elections this year as a reason not to be overly concerned.

"The economy is in substantially better shape than it was in 2011. Biden's policies are going to continue to make people feel that, and the campaign is doing everything right to make sure voters know that. It's exactly what we did with Obama," former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina told Axios.

Reality check: Democrats still hold a narrow 1-point edge on the congressional generic ballot in the NBC poll — a reminder that the economy isn't the only issue driving voter concerns.

Despite the sizable GOP advantage on the economy, deep antipathy toward former President Trump and broad opposition to GOP-backed abortion restrictions are still damaging to Republicans' prospects.

The bottom line: It's never easy for any incumbent to make the case for re-election when public opinion is so fickle, but it's especially risky to claim victory when the economic battle is still raging.

The Biden campaign's decision to confidently tout its successes over more cautiously acknowledging a long road to recovery is now looking like a tactical error.

Some Democrats fear Bidenomics branding is backfiring

Polling shows that Americans' overall perception of the economy is sour.

Economy

Politics & Policy

All eyes will be on the eagerly awaited trial of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, indicted on a litany of fraud charges, which kicks off in New York City on Tuesday.

Why it matters: If convicted, Bankman-Fried could become the biggest venture backed-fraudster, surpassing former Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes.

Flashback: Crypto exchange FTX quickly rose to prominence amid the pandemic, becoming one of the largest by trading volume. At the height of its dominance, the platform attracted top investors and grew its valuation to $32 billion by January 2022.

Then, by the first weekend of November 2022, it all quickly unraveled after a liquidity crunch revealed that customer funds were missing.

By December, the exchange had filed for bankruptcy protection, Bankman-Fried had been arrested in the Bahamas and extradited to the U.S., and some of his former lieutenants had agreed to plea deals with prosecutors.

Catch up quick: Bankman-Fried faces seven counts, including wire fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

Though prosecutors eventually dropped charges of election finance violations because of a mistake during extradition, they later re-added allegations that he had used stolen customer funds for illegal campaign contributions.

Former FTX and Alameda Research executives Caroline Ellison, Gary Wang, Nishad Singh and Ryan Salame have pleaded guilty and are likely to testify against Bankman-Fried.

Between the lines: As was the case in Theranos' collapse, investors' due diligence is likely to come under scrutiny during the trial.

Over a few short years, venture firms invested a total of $1.9 billion into FTX, and the company amassed a capped table that included some of Silicon Valley's most respected names.

Yes, but: Even the most successful venture firm in Silicon Valley claims it was conned.

"What gets me is not that we made the investment, it's the year and a half of working relationship after the investment and I still didn't see it — and that's difficult," said Sequoia Capital partner Alfred Lin in January, adding that the firm was "misled" by FTX.

The intrigue: If Bankman-Fried is convicted of defrauding FTX customers, he will stand apart from Holmes' trial. She was found guilty only of duping venture capitalists (though president Sunny Balwani was convicted of patient-related charges).

FTX customers (and critics) have been understandably vocal since the company collapsed, leaving many of them unable to withdraw the assets they had.

The bottom line: Even if Bankman-Fried is convicted of defrauding them, whether they get their money back is a separate question (and literally another legal proceeding). And even then, the damage has long been done. 

A spokesperson for Bankman-Fried declined to comment. 

Sam Bankman-Fried faces his day in court

The former Wunderkind is at the center of the biggest venture-backed fraud case since Theranos.

Photo illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call Inc. via Getty Images

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) wants to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for working across the aisle to stop a government shutdown — but some Democrats are not on board.

Why it matters: As Axios has previously reported, Gaetz will likely need the vast majority of Democrats to vote with him, barring an unprecedented GOP uprising against McCarthy.

Driving the news: Gaetz said during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday that he planned to file a motion to vacate against McCarthy this week.

McCarthy responded in a CBS News interview that he will “survive,” calling Gaetz’s effort “personal.”

What they’re saying: "I'm not going to follow Matt Gaetz to Peter Luger's Steakhouse,” said Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), a member of the Progressive Caucus.

Cohen said McCarthy “shouldn't be put out” for putting a bipartisan stopgap funding bill on the floor: “He did the right thing … and I'll definitely vote not to vacate. I expect a good number of Democrats will as well."

"Every time we work together, he loses his mind," Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) said of Gaetz in a statement, adding: “This is all about TV appearances for him … just let us govern.”

"I see almost no way that Matt gets most of the Dems,” said one senior House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Many will vote present if they don't vote No on [House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’] recommendation.”

Yes, but: Jeffries has so far declined to weigh in on a motion to vacate, and some moderate Democrats who might be inclined to save McCarthy are keeping their powder dry for the moment.

"I'm withholding any comment or speculation until the hypothetical becomes the real," said Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.). "So far, we've seen a lot of hat but no cattle."

“I’m waiting,” said Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.).

Many Democrats are expected to follow Jeffries’ lead: “Most will do whatever Hakeem tells us to do,” said the senior House Democrat.

At least one Democrat will likely vote with Gaetz to take down McCarthy: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), one of the most left-leaning members of Congress.

Ocasio-Cortez said on “State of the Union” that she would “absolutely” vote for the motion to vacate, calling McCarthy a “very weak speaker” who has “clearly lost control” of the GOP conference.

The other side: "The Speaker has the support of 200 [Republicans] and perhaps more," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a McCarthy ally. "Gaetz has no plan or alternative, other than chaos."

Only one Republican, right-wing Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), had voiced support for Gaetz's plan.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), one of 20 Republicans who rebelled against McCarthy during the speaker election in January, said he has "no comment until I speak directly with Matt and our Republican caucus."

What we’re watching: Some top Democrats have floated potentially trying to extract concessions from McCarthy as part of a deal to save him, as Axios previously reported.

But McCarthy has previously rejected the notion that he would seek out Democrats’ votes to save his speakership, and lawmakers in both parties think that a bipartisan win on a motion to vacate could doom him in the long run.

“Next week, if Kevin McCarthy is still the speaker of the House, he will be serving at the pleasure of the Democrats,” Gaetz said on Sunday.

Go deeper: McCarthy sets up GOP showdown after his Saturday surprise

McCarthy sets up GOP showdown after his Saturday surprise

Gaetz’s plan to oust McCarthy meets chilly Dem reception

“I'll definitely vote not to vacate. I expect a good number of Democrats will as well."

Rep. Matt Gaetz. Photo: Nathan Howard/Getty Images.

House Democrats

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is stepping down from his role in House Democratic leadership after floating a primary challenge to President Biden.

What he’s saying: “My convictions relative to the 2024 presidential race are incongruent with the majority of my caucus, and I felt it appropriate to step aside from elected leadership,” Phillips, the co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, told Axios in a statement.

"I celebrate Leader Jeffries for his remarkable and principled leadership, and extend gratitude to my outstanding friends and colleagues for having created space and place for my perspectives," Phillips continued.

"I'll continue to abide by my convictions, place people over politics, and support our shared mission to deliver security, opportunity, and prosperity for all Americans. Onward!"

The backdrop: Phillips, a three-term moderate from the Minneapolis suburbs, began publicly floating a primary challenge against Biden in July and refused to rule out the prospect as recently as last week.

Phillips has pointed to Biden’s age as a serious liability for the president and pointed to polling that suggests many Democrats don’t want him to be the party’s nominee in 2024.

But Phillips has also said he is not “well-positioned” for a run and called for Democrats with a higher national profile to jump into the race against Biden.

What we’re hearing: Phillips’ stance on Biden’s reelection puts him at odds with many in the Democratic caucus and has been the source of internal criticism. 

After House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told his caucus to stay on message on the government spending fight during a closed-door meeting last week, Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) stood up and took aim at Phillips.

“There is someone in leadership who is not on message about our president,” Kamlager-Dove said to a round of applause, according to a House Democrat who was present at the meeting.

What's next: Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), a second-term member, is considering a run to replace Phillips at the DPCC, according to a source familiar with his thinking.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout.

Scoop: Rep. Dean Phillips steps down from Dem leadership

Phillips had called for a primary challenger to President Biden.

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) on Sept. 29. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Communicators

Axios Communicators

Taylor Swift isn't just a pop icon anymore; she's the next great American dynasty, singlehandedly steering some of the country's most vaunted brands and institutions.

Why it matters: She already fueled the nation's economy for much of the summer and drove thousands to register to vote. Now, she's a beacon of opportunity — and cash — for both the NFL and Hollywood.

The NFL: Swift was spotted cheering on the Kansas City Chiefs alongside Donna Kelce, mother of Chiefs tight end, Travis Kelce, during last Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears. 

Throughout the broadcast, Fox panned over to Swift nine times throughout the game and social media was abuzz over her attendance.

The NFL flashed images of Swift in their game day graphics throughout the game, released 10 TikToks on the official NFL account — which changed its bio to read  "9/24/23. Taylor was here' — and NFL on Fox even ran an ad capitalizing on her romantic link to Kelce. 

Kelce is also a recipient of the halo effect. In the 24 hours following the game, he gained over 300,000 new social media followers, saw a 400% increase in merchandise sales and his podcast ranked #1 on the Apple charts. 

By the numbers: Her attendance did in fact drive ratings, particularly among young, female viewers

The Chiefs vs. Bears game drew 24.3 million viewers, making it the most-viewed telecast of the week, and female viewership in the key 18-49 demo saw a 63% increase.

What they're saying: "This buzz around Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift isn't just about speculation about their relationship, it's about the Halo Effect at work - where one person's influence boosts the appeal of others around them. Suddenly, football is more than a game; it's a stage for pop culture," said communication expert Molly McPherson.

"It isn't just an academic theory; it's a savvy marketing move. When an All-Pro tight end like Travis Kelce invites Taylor Swift to a game, he's essentially inviting her entire fan base to tune in as well. Swift, Kelce, the NFL, and the Kansas City Chiefs all come out ahead. There was only one loser in Sunday's game, and it was the Chicago Bears."

Box office: With Hollywood mired in the depths of dual labor disputes, this fall's movie slate was looking pretty bare for theaters — until Swift delivered an unexpected jolt with the surprise announcement of her "Eras Tour" film, set for release this month.

Swift and her family directly negotiated a distribution deal with theater chain AMC, leaving out the traditional studio middlemen via an agreement that could upend how concert films are released in the future, per Puck's Matthew Belloni.

The concert film is tracking toward a $100 million opening weekend domestically — and likely much higher, according to Deadline, with one analyst calling it a "unicorn."

It's Taylor Swift's world and we're just living in it

She already fueled the nation's economy for much of the summer and drove thousands to register to vote. Now, she's a beacon of opportunity — and cash — for both the NFL and Hollywood.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Some Democrats fear Bidenomics branding is backfiring

Sam Bankman-Fried faces his day in court

Gaetz’s plan to oust McCarthy meets chilly Dem reception

Scoop: Rep. Dean Phillips steps down from Dem leadership

It's Taylor Swift's world and we're just living in it

"I'll survive," McCarthy says about Gaetz's intent to oust him

McCarthy sets up GOP showdown after his Saturday surprise

Cases to watch in the Supreme Court's new term

New Orleans bracing for major threat to drinking water supply

Student loan payments resume after 3-year pause

Congress delays government shutdown deadline until November