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National

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won Sunday's presidential runoff, triumphing over a united opposition and claiming another five-year term.

Why it matters: This was expected to be the most difficult election of Erdoğan's two decades in power.

The Turkish strongman was under pressure for high inflation, arguably exacerbated by his economic policies, and for the slow response to a devastating earthquake in February.

But Erdoğan is a highly effective campaigner and has an enthusiastic following among more religious and conservative Turks.

The result means Erdoğan will continue to be one of the most influential players in both Europe and the Middle East. In the Ukraine war alone, Erdoğan has armed Ukraine with drones, mediated between Ukraine and Russia on grain exports, and blocked Sweden from joining NATO.

By the numbers: Erdoğan led challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu 52% to 48% with 99% of ballots counted, according to Turkish public media.

Turkey’s Supreme Election Council confirmed Erdoğan victory, saying the votes that still needed to be counted would not change the outcome of the election. 

Erdoğan defied polls that showed him trailing Kılıçdaroğlu to beat him by 4.6% in the first round.

What he's saying: “I thank each member of our nation for entrusting me with the responsibility to govern this country once again for the upcoming five years,” Erdoğan told supporters, per AP. 

“The only winner today is Turkey,” Erdoğan said.

What to watch: Erdoğan has centralized ever more power into his own hands, particularly since surviving a coup attempt in 2016 and overseeing the shift from a parliamentary to a presidential system a year later.

Some analysts, such as Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute, have warned that if that trend continues, this could be the last freely contested election as long as Erdoğan remains in power.

Election observers from the OSCE found that the first round of voting was free, though Erdoğan's control over state institutions and much of the media gave him an unfair advantage.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout. 

Go deeper: Listen to the Axios Today podcast, where Margaret Talev, filling in for host Niala Boodhoo, shares why Turkish President Erdoğan’s win is both an asset and a challenge for the Biden administration.

Turkey's President Erdoğan wins re-election

Five more years for Turkey's influential strongman.

Erdoğan. Photo: Cemal Yurttas/Dia images via Getty

Turkey

World

The White House and House GOP are each performing careful balancing acts as they race to sell their debt ceiling deal to lawmakers as a decisive victory — without alienating the other side.

Why it matters: The bill will almost certainly require substantial support from members in both parties to pass and avert a potentially catastrophic default on U.S. debt by June 5.

The deal announced Saturday night marked a huge breakthrough after months of brinkmanship — but party leaders still have to sell the bill to skeptical members and the public.

"Everyone's trying to thread the needle to get to 218," said one House Democrat. "Either side bragging too much about their wins scares people and costs votes."

Driving the news: After telling his members on a Saturday night conference call that he made zero concessions to Democrats, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) doubled down in a "Fox News Sunday" interview.

"Right now, the Democrats are very upset," McCarthy said. House Democratic leader "Hakeem [Jeffries] told me, there's nothing in the bill for them. There’s not one thing in the bill for Democrats."

That was news to Jeffries, who said in a CBS News "Face the Nation" interview: "I have no idea what he's talking about, particularly because I have not been able to review the actual legislative text."

By the time he briefed the press at the Capitol later Sunday, McCarthy was singing a very different tune.

"It is not everything everybody wanted, but I think it is a very positive bill," he told reporters.

Asked whether he could get Democratic votes for a bill he cast as a total GOP victory, McCarthy said: "We raised the debt ceiling, we negotiated in good faith with the president. ... There's a lot in here for both sides."

Zoom in: The two parties might as well be in other worlds when it comes to characterizing details of the deal.

The GOP's one-pager on the bill, for example, says it caps 2024 non-defense spending at 2022 levels, but White House briefing materials say the deal keeps spending "roughly flat" with 2023 levels.

Even where there's agreement, the spin can be vertigo-inducing: The GOP boasts that the deal "restart[s] student loan repayments," but the White House contextualizes that it simply "codifies an end to the pause — which the administration had planned to end on September 1."

The other side: Democrats have taken a more behind-the-scenes approach than McCarthy. The White House called congressional allies individually and sent briefing materials on Saturday night but is waiting until 5pm ET on Sunday to hold a virtual briefing.

The approach seems to be working for some. Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), who raised concerns about the bill at a closed-door meeting last week, told Axios that, after speaking with White House adviser Mitch Landrieu, there's nothing she sees as a "deal breaker."

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) characterized the fact that the bill raises the debt ceiling into 2025 as a "huge win" for Biden, but conceded McCarthy has "worked the public relations of this, in my opinion, to great effect."

Both said they are waiting to see the final text before deciding how they will vote.

Yes, but: Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and Jim Himes (D-Conn.), the former chair of the center-left New Democrat Coalition, both raised concerns about the deal on the Sunday shows.

Many Democrats “are looking for reassurance” from the White House briefing, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) told Axios.

Members of the House Freedom Caucus also appeared to be livid, and several outside conservative groups came out swinging against the deal on Sunday.

What to watch: In addition to the briefing, Democrats will have an in-person caucus meeting next week and "multiple opportunities to review and discuss the legislation with the Biden administration," according to a letter Jeffries circulated Sunday.

McCarthy said he plans to brief Senate Republicans — some of whom have also voiced serious concerns about the deal — on a Sunday call.

The bottom line: "Both sides are obviously going to sell it as a win for them," said Moskowitz. "That's how this works."

Party leaders sell divergent realities on debt ceiling deal

"Either side bragging too much about their wins scares people and costs votes."

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy with two of his deputies, Reps. Garret Graves, left, and Patrick McHenry. Photo: Anna Rose Layden/Getty Images

Debt ceiling

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Science

Axios Science

Misinformation and disinformation are diminishing public trust in science and becoming an existential threat to the planet, researchers warned this week.

The big picture: False information about vaccines and climate change — runs rampant on social media, where Americans are increasingly getting their news and information.

At the same time, a gap in trust of scientists is widening along political lines: In a Pew Research survey last September, 24% of Republicans said they think scientific experts are typically better than others at making good policy decisions about scientific issues, compared to 55% of Democrats.

The causes and the effects of these intersecting trends — with the added force of generative AI —  were the focus of a three-day meeting this week in Washington, D.C., organized by the Nobel Foundation and the National Academy of Sciences.

Details: Speakers described how the attention economy's business model intersects with the very human desire to belong — fueling an information environment riddled with misinformation and disinformation.

"The real problem isn’t people. It's the reward structure on social platforms," said Gizem Ceylan, a behavioral scientist at Yale University.

In a study published this year, Ceylan found the rewards — attracting attention and recognition in the form of likes and comments — of sharing online create habits that drive people's behavior more than their motivations do. For example, the top 15% of habitual news sharers were involved in 30% to 40% of the false news shared in the study.

Earlier research zeroed in on people's desire to be a source of novel information — which was more likely to be false — as helping to drive the spread of misinformation and disinformation on Twitter.

Ceylan and her collaborators argue "social media sites could be restructured to build habits to share accurate information."

Providing accurate information isn't enough, several speakers emphasized.

"Our information problems today are not just technological ones. We aren't going to be able to fact check or innovate or police away racism and information harmful to our digital spaces," said Rachel Kuo, a professor of media studies at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

"Information has always been bound up in social, economic and political systems and structures," she added.

And finding reliable sources of information is difficult because of changes in society in recent decades, said Hahrie Han, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University.

We now have more social interactions than social relationships and the relationships we do have are more likely to be transactional, she said. And if they are actual social relationships, they are more likely to be with people who are like us because of the disintegration of civic infrastructure, she added. That fuels "echo chambers where disinformation can bounce around."

Han conducted research with one of the largest megachurches in the U.S. and says the church motto of "belonging comes before belief" should be leveraged to create relationships of belonging with people across the "social spaces we inhabit."

"When we think about combating misinformation, we have to address not only the narratives and the ideas, but also the social infrastructure that underlies how you're interacting with information," said Han.

Of note: Several speakers held up peer review as science's own process of vetting information.

But the scientific enterprise — the incentives for scientists to publish and for journals to attract readers, jargon and other features of scientific publishing — can also contribute to the spread of misinformation.

What to watch: Researchers presented findings from the first report of the International Panel on the Information Environment (IPIE), a group formed to assess tools to combat misinformation and disinformation, and inspired by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Analyzing nearly 600 peer-reviewed studies, they found scientific evidence supports labeling content (tagging about fact-checking, funding and other information that provides context) and publishing corrections to help people assess information on social media. There was less scientific consensus about moderating content.

They also made some recommendations for scholars studying misinformation, including standardizing definitions of misleading information and analyzing non-English language sources.

The bottom line: Misinformation is "so far-reaching that it is rapidly becoming an existential threat to the planet," said Sheldon Himelfarb, executive director of IPIE.

Worries mount about misinformation in science

It's diminishing public trust in science and becoming an existential threat to the planet, researchers warned this week.

Misinformation

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden finally have their debt ceiling deal. Now comes the hard part: Rushing it through an uneasy Congress in just one week, before the government's projected default on June 5.

Why it matters: The stakes are especially high for McCarthy (R-Calif.), whose survival as speaker could be at stake if he can't contain the anger of right-wing Republicans who already are panning the compromise.

A source close to the House GOP leadership told Axios that perhaps 60 conservative Republicans won't vote for it. That means McCarthy could need votes from nearly that many Democrats to get the plan through the divided House. 

Biden will have to deliver those votes despite wariness among progressives about some aspects of the deal — and a broader frustration among Democrats that the White House is already losing the public relations battle over it.

State of play: Like any compromise, the Biden-McCarthy deal has some wins and losses for both sides.

It raises the debt ceiling until 2025 and keeps non-defense discretionary spending steady, which Democrats see as victories.

Republicans wanted, and got, new work requirements for people who are on welfare, a boost in defense spending, clawbacks of unspent COVID aid and some IRS funding. 

Another significant GOP win is what's not in the deal: tax increases or any other revenue-raisers.

Zoom in: On a Saturday night call to brief House Republicans 0n the deal, McCarthy called it a total win for Republicans and said no concessions were made to Democrats.

His deputies rushed to sell that framing. "There are no real wins for Democrats other than the debt ceiling is being raised," Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) told Axios in an interview.

Some conservative Republicans weren't buying it: Freedom Caucus members Bob Good (R-Va.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) all made clear they won't vote for the bill.

"Bulls***," is how one senior conservative source described the deal.

But Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) said he talked with three dozen House members across the GOP's ideological spectrum late Saturday — including "among the most conservative" — and, "I think they understand what a significant win this is."

Between the lines: McCarthy can likely afford to lose dozens of conservatives' support when the House votes on the plan later this week. What he can't do, however, is anger those members so much they trigger a motion to oust him.

Under rules McCarthy agreed to in January to secure enough conservative GOP votes to be elected speaker, just one House member can bring a "motion to vacate," and force a vote to remove the speaker.

So far, no one has threatened that, but the rhetoric was heated Saturday.

"If Speaker’s negotiators bring back in substance a clean debt limit increase," Bishop tweeted Saturday morning before the deal was struck, "[I]t’s war."

The other side: Some Democrats, already fuming about being excluded from the negotiating table, are distressed that the White House isn't doing enough to give them cover to vote for the bill.

The latest source of concern: That the White House is waiting until nearly a day after McCarthy outlined the plan to Republicans before briefing congressional Democrats.

"The White House has a communication problem," one Democratic House member said. "McCarthy's on the phone telling his Republicans, 'The Democrats didn't get anything,' and [the White House] has got to get out there and start selling ... People are not happy."

Progressives are worried about the work requirements and energy permitting changes in the deal, according to two House Democrats.

A Democratic source told Axios that the White House has been circulating materials and talking points about the deal, and making calls to Democratic leaders and members of Congress.

What we're watching: Several Republicans told Axios that their key concerns on the final vote count — rather than GOP defections — are Democratic ones.

This story was updated to include information about the White House's outreach to Congress. 

fuming about being kept from the negotiating table

McCarthy and Biden's big test on the debt ceiling deal

The stakes are especially high for McCarthy, whose survival as speaker could be at stake.

President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) depart the U.S. Capitol after a luncheon on March 17. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Kevin McCarthy

A national lifeguard shortage will keep thousands of pools across the country closed or operating with reduced hours for the third summer in a row.

Why it matters: Memorial Day weekend is considered the official start of swimming season. Experts tell Axios they worry the shortage will mean a higher chance of drownings and pool injuries. 

Lifeguard shortage drags on for third summer in a row

Memorial Day is considered the start of swimming season. But cities are still struggling with unfilled lifeguard positions.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Turkey's President Erdoğan wins re-election

Party leaders sell divergent realities on debt ceiling deal

Worries mount about misinformation in science

McCarthy and Biden's big test on the debt ceiling deal

Lifeguard shortage drags on for third summer in a row

White House and GOP reach tentative debt ceiling deal

Ken Paxton impeached in historic Texas House vote

It's the summer of international travel — despite high prices

Nvidia stock's AI-fueled rise puts it on trillion-dollar club's doorstep

Yellen warns U.S. will run out of money on June 5

Scoop: Sinema enters debt ceiling negotiations

Charted: The rapid rise of Major League Soccer