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National

Closer

Axios Closer

Data: Reventure Consulting via the National Association of Realtors; Chart: Axios Visuals

Tens of thousands of real estate agents are giving up on the profession, thinning their pandemic-era ranks as the housing market comes back to earth. 

Why it matters: Realtors are on the ground floor of the real estate market, making them well positioned to notice when it's cooling off, thus providing less opportunity to cash in.

By the numbers: More than 60,000 have exited the sector over the last six months, according to data from the National Association of Realtors, analyzed by Reventure Consulting.

There were about 1.537 million in April, down from the all-time high of 1.6 million in October.

The big picture: Americans embraced home-selling jobs as soon as the pandemic began, powered by soaring prices and sales.

The number of Realtors went from 1.372 million in March 2020 to 1.463 million in March 2021, and 1.531 million in March 2022.

"Historically, anytime home prices really go up, Realtors flood into the market," Reventure Consulting CEO Nick Gerli tells Axios. "Lots of people view it as a way to make money — and often a quick buck — off the housing boom."

But, but, but: Sales of existing single-family homes fell 42% from their peak of 6.66 million in January 2021 to 3.85 million in April 2023.

Average annualized Realtor commissions hit a high of $84,355 in January 2021, but fell to $56,632 in April 2023, Reventure estimated.

Median prices declined by 4.1%, or $17,603, from April 2022 to April 2023, marking the "biggest drop on record in dollar terms and the largest decline since January 2012 in percentage terms," Redfin reported

With 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rates briefly topping 7% on average in late 2022, and remaining above 6% in 2023, some prospective buyers have been priced out of the market.

"Realtors can’t make as much money anymore," Gerli says. "We’re in the initial stages of Realtors quitting."

The other side: The number of real estate agents is still near its historical high — and the housing market has remained resilient despite falling sales and prices in certain markets.

The NAR noted in a statement that the number reached "the highest ever recorded" in late 2022, but the organization did not address the decline in recent months.

NAR added that it does not track Realtor commissions, but said, "Compensation is always negotiable and consumers are encouraged to talk to their broker to understand and agree upon how they expect to be compensated."

The bottom line: As the housing market booms, so does the real estate profession — and the reverse is also true.

Realtor boom ends as housing market slumps

Tens of thousands of realtors are giving up on the profession after their ranks swelled earlier in the pandemic when the housing market was soaring.

Real estate

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

The World Health Organization isn't sweet on non-sugar sweeteners, the agency announced.

Driving the news: It advised against using sugar substitutes like Splenda, stevia and Sweet'n Low for weight loss — and warned about potential long-term health risks of too much intake.

The recommendation applied to everyone except those with diabetes. 

Why it matters: Artificial sweeteners have grown in popularity, largely because consumers consider them a healthier alternative to sugar.

However, the WHO advisory adds to growing concern about the potential negative long-term health impacts of sugar substitutes.

The big picture: The WHO recommendation comes on the heels of the agency's review of studies on non-sugar sweeteners, which found no clear consensus on whether they are effective for weight loss or maintenance.

The review referenced small-study data on the possible connection between sugar substitutes and an increased risk of Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and death.

Another article published in February suggested that the keto diet-friendly artificial sweetener erythritol could elevate cardiovascular health risk, but "it's not clear if it's actually the sweeteners causing the increase or another variable that wasn't controlled for," said registered dietitian Alissa Rumsey, author of "Unapologetic Eating."

That study follows other recent ones on artificial sugar that have raised concerns about glycemic response and heart disease.

An International Sweeteners Association spokesperson told Axios they're "disappointed that the WHO's conclusions are largely based on low certainty evidence from observational studies." 

The group shared a statement in response to the WHO guideline.

Between the lines: Part of the potential issue with sugar substitutes is that they could spur unhealthy eating behaviors.

Knowingly eating artificially sweetened foods might contribute to the "idea of 'it's better for me so I can eat as much as I want,'" Rumsey said.

Meanwhile, sugar substitutes aren't as satisfying as the real thing, so "for some people, this leads to them continuing to eat and graze on foods to try to find that feeling of satisfaction."

Zoom in: Unlike sugar,  sugar substitutes have no nutritional value, said Francesco Branca, WHO director for nutrition and food safety.

"People need to consider other ways to reduce free sugars intake, such as consuming food with naturally occurring sugars, like fruit, or unsweetened food and beverages," Branca said.

Be smart: This doesn't mean to necessarily avoid all sweetened foods.

If you like artificial sweeteners, "it's OK to have them in moderation, alongside an eating pattern that includes a variety of foods," Rumsey said.

As for real sugar, if it's eaten in moderation as part of a snack that includes protein, fat and fiber, "it can improve the taste of food and offer a helpful boost of energy," Rumsey said.

Go deeper: How sugar substitutes can disrupt metabolic health

🎧 Listen to Axios Today, our daily podcast, to hear me discuss this story with guest host Emily Peck. Hear the episode for free.

Editor’s note: This story was updated to include a response from the International Sweeteners Association.

Sorry, stevia: Artificial sweeteners get more bad PR

Artificial sweeteners aren’t good for weight loss, WHO says.

Illustration of many sweetener packets some with exes marked on them

Nutrition

Public health

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Macro

Axios Macro

Economic data released on Friday show a pickup in consumer spending, alongside persistent inflation, which suggests the Federal Reserve might not yet be done with its rate-hiking campaign.

Why it matters: Demand across the economy is still hotter than policymakers would like.

Driving the news: Consumer spending reaccelerated at a healthy pace in April after signs of a pullback. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.8%, after near-flat readings the prior two months.

Consumers spent more on services including health care and insurance, as well as goods like cars and auto parts.

Adjusted for inflation, spending rose 0.5%. 

What they're saying: The data is "another sign that the economy refuses to go gently into that good night," RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas tweeted.

The Fed's preferred gauge of price increases also showed resilient inflation: The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy costs, rose 0.4% in April — a tick higher than in March. 

Compared to the same month a year ago, this core measure rose 4.7%. The index has hovered between 4.6% and 4.7% since December 2022. 

The core PCE index rose at a 4.3% three-month annualized rate. That's down from the comparable measure of 5% in March, though still far above the level desired by Fed officials.

Of note: Business spending showed signs of strength last month. Orders for durable goods, excluding aircraft and defense, popped 1.4% in April. 

The prior month's data was also revised slightly higher to show this measure declining 0.6% (instead of 1.1%). 

The bottom line: The data underscores the challenge facing the central bank, where officials have been divided over whether to back off their rate-hiking campaign. Additional hot data could tilt them more in favor of further tightening — either in June or later this year.

There is still more data to come, including the May jobs report (out next Friday) and the release of the Consumer Price Index (out June 13, the first day of the Fed policy meeting). 

The intrigue: After weeks of near certainty the Fed would hold (not hike), markets are now more split about what will happen next — with higher chances of a hike emerging just this morning.

The tracker, maintained by the CME, can be volatile. Still, it reflects the huge shift in expectations in the span of a few weeks about what's ahead for the central bank.

What to watch: Markets had expected a rate cut by year-end, despite assurances from Fed officials including chair Jerome Powell that that would not be the case.

Now, odds that the target range is lower than where it is now by year-end have plunged: Last week, futures market pricing implied a 91% chance the Fed's target rate would be lower by December. As of this afternoon, it's 36%.

Spending, inflation point to still-hot U.S. economy

Friday's data raises big questions about what's ahead for the Federal Reserve.

Animated illustration of a thermometer in the shape of a dollar bill sign, with temperature rising rapidly

Federal Reserve

Jobs

The U.S. side of the southwest border is surprisingly quiet two weeks after President Biden's strict limits on asylum took effect, but a backlog of tens thousands of migrants threatens a humanitarian crisis on the Mexico side. 

Why it matters: Mexico's shelters are holding as much as six times their capacity, makeshift camps continue to pop up all over, intense summer heat is coming — and migrants hoping to enter the U.S. keep arriving from points south.

More than 25,000 migrants were still in shelters along the border and elsewhere in Mexico as of May 19, according to data collected by the U.N.'s International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Hundreds more have formed makeshift camps in Mexican cities along the border. Many others have rented apartments or found other temporary housing.

Crowding has strained local water and sanitation systems, and officials worry about health dangers posed by the coming heat, IOM's chief of mission in Mexico, Dana Graber Ladek, tells Axios.

Between the lines: Biden officials have touted a rapid decline in the number of migrants trying to illegally cross into the U.S. — falling from a record 10,000+ crossings a day before the end of pandemic-era migration restrictions known as Title 42, to less than 4,000 shortly after.

But the masses U.S. officials have been tracking in northern Mexico as poised to cross into the United States haven't turned back — they're just marking time south of the border.

"It's a bit of a holding pattern right now, as migrants try to figure out what their options are," Ladek said.

As of last week, shelters were beyond capacity in every Mexican border city except Ciudad Juarez, according to data collected by IOM.

Zoom in: Biden's tough new asylum rules and the threat of deportation with a five-year ban on re-entry seem to have deterred many migrants from crossing illegally.

But new legal pathways — which administration officials have cited in differentiating their policies from those of former President Trump — are falling far short of demand.

In four months, there already have been more than 1.5 million requests from people in the U.S. to sponsor migrants from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti, according to CBS News.

With a maximum of 30,000 arrivals permitted each month under Biden’s new rules, the backlog is growing rapidly.

Biden's border plans have relied heavily on a new app that enables asylum seekers still in Mexico to schedule interviews with U.S. border officials at legal crossing points.

But an IOM study in five Mexican cities found that half of migrants seeking to schedule appointments through the app couldn't do so, Ladek said.

Zoom out: Mass migration continues south of Mexico. People from around the world are making their way north through the perilous jungles of the Darién Gap, which separates Colombia from Panama.

Panamanian statistics of these crossings have been a good indicator of when future waves will arrive at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Last month, more than 40,000 migrants entered Panama through the Darién and tens of thousands more have crossed this month.

The top nationalities crossing through the Darien are Venezuelans, Haitians, Ecuadorians, Chinese and Colombians — a reflection of the diversity of migrants through the Americas.

What they're saying: "The number of individuals attempting to cross through the Darién and unlawfully enter (the U.S.) through the Southwest border decreased significantly" because of Biden's new policies and preparation for post-Title 42, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson told Axios in a statement.

What we're watching: U.S. officials expect it will be a while before the full impact of their new policies on the region becomes clear, an administration official said.

For now, though, Mexico is scrambling to prevent a humanitarian crisis.  

Go deeper: Listen to the Axios Today podcast, where Margaret Talev, filling in for host Niala Boodhoo, and Stef Kight share what's happening on the Mexican side after the end of Title 42.

Mexico's border crisis: What the U.S. doesn't see

Biden policies limit crossings into the U.S. as a humanitarian crisis unfolds on Mexico's side of the border.

Migrants waiting for space in shelters have set up camps like this one in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Photo: Christian Torres Chavez/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Immigration

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Axios

Friday's top stories

Realtor boom ends as housing market slumps

Sorry, stevia: Artificial sweeteners get more bad PR

Spending, inflation point to still-hot U.S. economy

Mexico's border crisis: What the U.S. doesn't see

Judge temporarily blocks South Carolina's 6-week abortion ban

Musk's Neuralink says it won FDA approval for human trials

Drones go out on shark patrol

Immigrant workforce reaches a new high

Generative AI is also a revolution for computer interfaces

Axios Finish Line: The future of media

DeSantis campaign announces $8.2M fund-raising haul in first 24 hours