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National

Data: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) office and Ballotpedia; Note: Districts where there was no opponent in the 2022 midterm election are not included; Chart: Alice Feng/Axios

Nine of the top 10 wealthiest congressional districts are represented by Democrats, while Republicans now represent most of the poorer half of the country, according to median income data provided by Rep. Marcy Kaptur's (D-Ohio) office.

Why it matters: The last several decades have ushered in a dramatic political realignment, as the GOP has broadened its appeal to a more diverse working class and Democrats have become the party of wealthier, more-educated voters.

"Republicans were the party of the country club, and they're increasingly the party of country," lobbyist and political analyst Bruce Mehlman told Axios.

"We have seen an inversion of Democrat and Republican shares of the highest- and lowest-income districts — and the highest and lowest college degree-holding districts," Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman told Axios.

By the numbers: 64% of congressional districts with median incomes below the national median are now represented by Republicans — a shift in historical party demographics, the data shows.

Some of the highest-income districts have long voted Democrat, but growing inequality is widening the gap between them and working-class swing districts critical to winning majorities.

"Increasingly, districts that make up the majority of the Democratic caucus don't really reflect the middle-income districts where the House is won and lost,” Wasserman said.

Zoom in: Democrats are still competitive and have held on to a number of swingy, middle-income districts, including Kaptur's in Ohio. She is one of only five House Democrats representing districts won by former President Trump. 

Kaptur often shows a similar chart ranking districts by median income to fellow Democrats — and has even given a version to President Biden.

"It's one way for her to highlight ... that there are still those districts, especially in middle America away from the coasts, that are not feeling the benefit of all the policies in place," a Kaptur aide told Axios. "That there is still work to be done to uplift these communities."

Kaptur also sees another interpretation: "The other way you could look at it is: how is it possible that Republicans are representing the majority of people who struggle?" she told Insider, which first reported on the chart.

Between the lines: The relationship between geography, education, income and politics is complex — and experts point to education as a stronger indicator of party affiliation.

"I suspect income is downstream of education and geography. Voters with college degrees or more earn higher salaries, live where homes cost more and increasingly skew Democratic," Mehlman said.

The big picture: Class politics has become a driving force in the past several elections, supercharged by Donald Trump's populist plea to middle-class, blue collar workers in 2016.

An increase in less-educated, lower-income GOP primary voters could benefit Trump as he seeks the 2024 nomination, as CNN points out.

Meanwhile, "the more the Democratic Party becomes defined or stereotyped by elites and coastal interests with a lot of money, the harder it is to win the middle-income districts that they need to get to 218 [seats]," Wasserman said.

Still, Democrats are hopeful that strong and sustained messaging on some of Biden's biggest legislative wins — and House Republicans' threats to cut popular social programs — could help them shore up some working-class voters.

What they're saying: “While House Democrats expanded broadband internet, capped the cost of insulin, and cut child poverty in half, Republicans did everything they could to stop them from helping middle- and working-class families," DCCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia told Axios, criticizing Republicans aims to cut federal spending.

On the other side, Kaptur as well as the other Trump-district Democrats are top targets for Republicans hoping to expand their House majority.

"Marcy Kaptur is well aware that Democrats like herself no longer represent the working class," NRCC spokesman Chris Gustafson said in a statement last month.

Editor's note: This story was originally published on April 12, 2023. 

Dramatic realignment swings working-class districts toward GOP

"Republicans were the party of the country club, and they're increasingly the party of country."

Elections

Elections 2024

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

President Biden's Environmental Protection Agency announced far-reaching climate regulations this week in an attempt to dramatically alter how Americans drive over the next decade.

The big picture: The proposals are designed to ensure that two-thirds of new passenger cars sold in the U.S. are all-electric by 2032. Less than 6% of new vehicles sold last year were electrics.

Why it matters: Trying to impose top-down regulations to nudge Americans' behavior is rarely politically popular. Just look at the intense backlash over federal vaccine mandates that were ultimately struck down by the Supreme Court.

At a time when Republicans have been playing defense over Trump and abortion, Biden just handed them a gift that could rally the GOP base and put red-state Democratic senators in energy-rich states (such as West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Montana Sen. Jon Tester) on the defensive.

Zoom in: If Biden's plan goes through, consumers in nine years would find fewer gasoline options and be compelled to buy vehicles that currently are more expensive and have less driving range than traditional cars.

There are also logistical challenges: Electric cars currently are dependent on Chinese manufacturers and tech companies for parts and batteries. The domestic supply isn't close to meeting the demand expected with the new regulations.

There also aren't enough electric charging stations in the country yet to handle a surge in demand, especially outside urban areas. 

Yes, but: Between the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, Biden has already set the wheels in motion to try to make EVs more accessible and affordable. This includes:

Spending $5 billion for 500,000 highway chargers and $2.5 billion for community chargers.

Setting price limits and income restrictions on EV tax credits to steer benefits toward mass-market buyers.

Lucrative tax credits for companies that build EVs and batteries in the U.S., which could trickle down to consumers.

By the numbers: A new Gallup poll, released Wednesday, shows Americans' widespread reluctance to embrace electric vehicles.

Only 4% said they currently own an EV, and just 12% more are seriously considering buying one. A sizable 41% of adults said they'd never buy one.

Just 12% believe that driving electric vehicles does a "great deal" to reduce climate change, while 27% said it does a "fair amount."

Electric vehicles are an especially tough sell for Republicans: 71% said they never plan to own one.

A separate Pew Research poll from last summer showed 55% of Americans opposed phasing out new gasoline-powered cars and trucks by 2035, while 43% supported it.

Most of those inclined to consider an EV in the future were younger adults and urban dwellers — critical elements of the Democratic base that Biden needs to turn out for the 2024 election.

Overall, the poll found that 49% of adults said the Biden administration’s policies on climate change are taking the country in the right direction, while 47% said they represent the wrong direction.

Between the lines: There are signs the White House hasn't gotten buy-in on the climate regulations from the typically supportive United Auto Workers labor union and automobile executives who have been ramping up supplies of electric models.

The Biden administration initially intended to dispatch EPA Administrator Michael Regan to announce the new regulations in Detroit, where he'd be surrounded by American-made electric vehicles, according to the NYT.

But many key stakeholders weren't supportive and declined to participate, the Times reported. The announcement then was moved to EPA headquarters in Washington.

Reality check: It's likely these regulations will be challenged in court as regulatory overreach, and ultimately they could be tossed out by the conservative-majority Supreme Court.

Many of Biden's climate policies could also be reversed by Congress or a new president.

Notable quotable: Biden's climate plan already is facing dissent from one prominent Midwestern Democrat, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.)

Dingell told Politico: "Everybody cares about global warming, but I’m hearing from too many people in this country — I mean, strong Democrats — that they can’t afford an electric vehicle.”

The bottom line: The biggest vulnerability for Biden in 2024 is the prospect of a weak economy, with fears of a recession and inflation still at historically high levels.

Spending political capital on a climate change initiative geared largely toward the affluent part of the electorate — not the Americans struggling to pay for a new car — threatens to exacerbate Biden's economic challenges.

The Democratic coalition has, until recently, been very dependent on working-class Americans. Over the last three decades, the Democratic base has shifted to appeal to wealthier, college-educated urbanites, while Republicans have dominated the working-class vote.

That's left Democrats frequently stuck in a bubble of the progressive base, which is more affluent than the average voter.

Biden's green gamble

He's seeking to ensure that two-thirds of new passenger cars sold in the U.S. are all-electric by 2032.

Biden at the General Motors Factory ZERO electric vehicle assembly plant  in Detroit. Photo: Nic Antaya/Getty Images

Electric vehicles

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

Axios AM

Fight Democrats, Not Republicans

The super PAC backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis today debuts its first TV ad, charging straight at former President Trump with the loaded question: “What happened to Donald Trump?"

Never Back Down, the pro-DeSantis group, launches the ad, "Fight Democrats, Not Republicans," on "Fox News Sunday."

Why it matters: The ad is the starting shot for a vicious fight between the top two contenders for the 2024 Republican nomination, even though DeSantis hasn't formally entered the race.

 A pro-Trump super PAC has been blasting DeSantis on the air for two weeks. Now, both sides are officially engaged.

"Trump cut and run like a coward," Never Back Down said this weekend in an online-only blast targeted at attendees of this weekend's National Rifle Association convention in Indianapolis. 

In the TV ad, the pro-DeSantis group says: “Donald Trump is being attacked by a Democrat prosecutor in New York. So why is he spending millions attacking the Republican governor of Florida? Trump’s stealing pages from the Biden-Pelosi playbook, repeating lies about Social Security."

From the pro-Trump side, the first ad by the Make America Great Again super PAC flayed DeSantis on Social Security, a big issue for both the primary and the general election. The ad tied DeSantis to Republicans who've suggested cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

The ad began running on March 31, with $3 million in airtime during the first two weeks. 

Trump allies think the Social Security issue undercuts the argument that DeSantis is more electable than the former president, who has vowed to protect the safety-net programs.

PolitiFact in 2018 rated similar charges by DeSantis' GOP primary opponent for governor, Adam Putnam, "Half True." (Go deeper.)

"Pudding Fingers" — a second ad by MAGA PAC that aired on Fox News, CNN, Newsmax and other cable outlets — needles DeSantis for a Daily Beast report last month that during a private plane trip in 2019, "DeSantis enjoyed a chocolate pudding dessert — by eating it  with three of his fingers."

The ad says DeSantis "has his dirty fingers all over senior entitlements": "Oh, and somebody get this man a spoon!"

DeSantis told Piers Morgan with a laugh: "I don't remember ever doing that. I'm telling you — maybe when I was a kid."

Context: Trump, who sees DeSantis as his biggest threat, holds a huge polling lead in the 2024 GOP presidential race. He got a massive fundraising bump after he was indicted in New York as many top conservatives rallied to him. 

Trump's campaign said this weekend he has raised more than $34 million this year. His total since his indictment on March 30 — $15.4 million — approached what he took in over the previous three months ($18.8 million in the first quarter), AP reports.

Both Trump and his super PAC — which operates separately from the campaign; no communication is allowed between the two — have accused DeSantis of waffling in the past on preserving Social Security. 

The pro-DeSantis ad shows the governor saying in March: "We're not going to mess with Social Security as Republicans."

The ad shows CNBC's Joe Kernen asking Trump at Davos in 2020: "Entitlements ever be on your plate?" Trump replies: "At some point, they will be… we will take a look at that."

"Trump should fight Democrats, not lie about Governor DeSantis," the ad says. "What happened to Donald Trump?"

Erin Perrine, communications director at Never Back Down, told Axios: “The ad is right: What happened to Donald Trump?”

Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung replied: “DeSantis is colluding with his globalist handlers to go full Never Trump in order to gaslight the people into thinking that Medicare and Social Security should be ripped away from hardworking Americans." 

"President Trump has made it clear that he will always stand on the side of Americans, and protect benefits seniors worked for and paid for their entire lives.”

Zoom out: Never Back Down got publicity over the weekend with a small online buy for “Gun-Grabbing Trump," which was geotargeted to Indianapolis for the NRA convention. 

The ad juxtaposes Trump's comments about the Second Amendment with clips of Democrats: "TRUMP AGREED WITH NANCY PELOSI," etc.

Trump's super PAC retweeted a clip of House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) telling the NRA convention about Trump's White House accomplishments.

🔮 What's next: The anti-Trump TV ad will air once for now, on Fox's Sunday show. On Monday, Never Back Down will put seven figures behind its first full national TV buy, "Anthem."

That ad portrays DeSantis heroically standing up for everyday Americans. It doesn't mention Trump.

Scoop: DeSantis super PAC strafes Trump in first TV ad

In the TV ad, the pro-DeSantis group says: “Donald Trump is being attacked by a Democrat prosecutor in New York. So why is he spending millions attacking the Republican governor of Florida?"

Donald Trump

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham expressed his surprise Sunday that a junior-level National Guardsman had a high enough security clearance to access classified documents as the fallout from the purported leak continues to unfold. 

What he's saying: "I was the captain and a major in the U.S. Air Force and I would be surprised if I had that kind of information," the Republican senator told ABC News' Jonathan Karl during an appearance on "This Week."  

"The system failed," Graham added. "This is a major failure and those who are trying to sugarcoat this on the right -- you cannot allow a single individual of the military intelligence community to leak classified information because they disagree with policy." 

"I am stunned that somebody at that level could have so much access. So the question is how did he get it and why did he do it?" 

"Some people need to be fired over this," Graham added.  

Why it matters: The leak of what are believed to be highly-classified documents is one of the largest in years and revealed sensitive information about U.S. intelligence gathering in countries including Ukraine, Russia and Israel. 

The release of the documents has created unease among U.S. intelligence officials and lawmakers. 

There are concerns that the knowledge the U.S. spied on its allies might damage relationships and future intelligence-gathering efforts. 

The documents have not been authenticated by U.S. officials, though the Department of Justice acknowledged that some appear to be legitimate and others seem to "have been doctored." 

Catch up quick: Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old Massachusetts National Guardsman, is accused of leaking the documents on a Discord server called "Thug Shaker Central." 

Teixeria was arrested Thursday and made his first appearance in court on Friday. 

 The unauthorized retention and transmission of national defense information.

The unauthorized removal and retention of classified documents or material.

Worth noting: Graham also reprimanded Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.) Sunday after she defended the alleged leaker on Twitter, though he did not call her by name. 

Graham "stunned" alleged Pentagon leaker had access to classified intel

"Some people need to be fired over this," Graham added.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Dramatic realignment swings working-class districts toward GOP

Biden's green gamble

Scoop: DeSantis super PAC strafes Trump in first TV ad

Graham "stunned" alleged Pentagon leaker had access to classified intel

America braces for historic trial between Dominion and Fox News

Marriages are becoming more "egalitarian." Just not with housework

Latin and Tex-Mex overtake Italian as America's go-to food order

Country music's next stars are Latino

Climate-displaced Americans face discrimination

America is not ready for retirement