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National

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Searching for a strategy to avoid a 2022 midterm disaster, advisers to President Biden have discussed elevating a unifying Republican foil not named Donald Trump.

Why it matters: Biden confidants worry that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is too unknown, that Biden won't demonize Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell because of their longstanding and collegial relationship and that elevating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could backfire.

Biden isn't on the ballot in November. But if voters see the elections as a referendum on the last two years, it could hurt Democrats across the ticket and cost their party control of Congress. 

Biden advisers and Hill allies told Axios voters are more likely to side with the president if he's compared to an alternative.

Between the lines: Team Biden's muscle memory is to elevate and focus on the best foil Democrats have ever been gifted — Trump.

But as Terry McAuliffe's loss in the Virginia governor's race showed last fall, running against an out-of-office Trump won't cut it with voters.

Biden advisers know they need to bring Republicans back into the fray and interrupt the ceaseless news cycles about Democratic infighting. They want to avoid inside baseball stories about the president as a legislative tactician dealing with recalcitrant moderate senators.

What we're hearing: DeSantis is an obvious target who has been discussed among Biden confidants as a potential foil for the president.

But some Biden advisers are reluctant to contest every midterm race on DeSantis' signature issue — COVID-19 — because the Biden administration's approaches on vaccine and mask mandates may be a political liability with some swing voters.

Biden will likely still invoke Trump when the setting makes sense — as he did on his Jan. 6 anniversary speech — but advisers do not expect him to run the Trump-obsessed McAuliffe playbook.

What they're saying: Since the Democrats' drubbing in Virginia last fall, vulnerable House Democrats have been warning against talking too much about the former president. Today, there's close to a consensus that Democrats can't hold Congress by focusing on Trump.

"It would be a mistake to run against Trump in the 2022 elections," close Biden ally, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), told Axios.

Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) told Axios: "I wish that we could just find one face that we could point to, such as with Donald Trump... maybe a composite." She said, "I'd like us to do a much more effective job of really drawing the contrast between Republicans and Democrats."

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told Axios: "Mitch McConnell is well known... He is, for sure, no Donald Trump, I want to make that 100% clear... but he is a figure that does represent a sharp difference from the Biden agenda."

One Biden adviser told Axios that Democrats should contrast their own efforts to steer the country through COVID with Republican efforts to obstruct them because "elections are about choices."

In recent months, Team Biden has been discussing alternative strategies to sharpen the contrast with Republicans.

"One of the problems is our messaging has been driven by governing, not by campaigning, and we need to move into campaign mode," said Celinda Lake, who polled for Biden during the 2020 campaign and continues to work with the Democratic National Committee.

"If you're trying to negotiate on the Hill, it's hard to draw contrast," she said. "If you're trying to win the November 2022 elections, you must draw a contrast."

Lake, like others Axios interviewed, said Democrats won't get far by raising one individual foil — not even a figure as polarizing as Trump.

She advocates drawing a broader contrast with the "MAGA faction" —  including Republicans "who supported the violent insurrection" and now want to pardon Jan. 6 rioters.

"That's a much better foil than just talking about picking one obscure congressional leader that nobody will know anyway, or a future presidential nominee that nobody will know anyway," Lake said. "Trump is not on the ballot," Lake added. "And these 'MAGA faction' candidates are."

The big picture: Incumbent presidents presiding over boom times look for ways to turn elections into referendums. But White Houses facing a restless electorate prefer to talk about elections as a choice, hoping to be compared to a real-life alternative and not an amorphous standard.

Biden's approval rating has been in decline since the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan — and now hovers in the low 40s. 

Some White House officials are optimistic that Biden's numbers may creep slightly upwards if the omicron variant is, indeed, the last wave of COVID-19. But it's not clear such a boost would come soon enough or be powerful enough.

Biden is plainly aware of the bleak national mood and knows that voters could punish him for it. "I understand the overwhelming frustration, fear, and concern with regard to inflation and COVID,” he said in a press conference last month. "I get it."

The bottom line: Biden may not find a truly effective GOP foil until after the midterm elections.

A GOP-controlled House would allow Biden to pick daily fights and present his policies as an alternative. 

The last two Democratic presidents won re-election after losing the House in the mid-term election.

Biden needs a Trump substitute

Biden advisers and Hill allies believe voters are more likely to side with the president if he's compared to an alternative.

Illustration of an elephant on top of a hydraulic lift

2022 elections

Politics & Policy

Some of the nation's most prominent nonprofit and advocacy groups tell the Justice Department they could be branded "foreign agents" unless DOJ changes its approach to the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).

The big picture: When the Koch network's Americans for Prosperity goes in on a joint statement with the Natural Resources Defense Council and the American Civil Liberties Union it's probably a five-alarm fire.

Why it matters: Foreign governments do provide funding to scores of prominent U.S. nonprofits, some of which have been scrutinized for influence exerted by those foreign patrons.

But a number are warning DOJ that overzealous enforcement of foreign agent laws could chill free speech and politicize transparency laws.

Driving the news: The warnings came in numerous comments submitted to DOJ last week as it considers changes to FARA regulations.

How we got here: Think-tank funding, in particular, has long been seen as a tool for foreign governments to surreptitiously influence U.S. policy and public opinion.

"More than a dozen prominent Washington research groups have received tens of millions of dollars from foreign governments in recent years while pushing United States government officials to adopt policies that often reflect the donors’ priorities," the New York Times reported in 2014.

In early 2020, DOJ released an advisory opinion spelling out conditions under which U.S. nonprofits that receive foreign government funding must register as foreign agents.

The National Wildlife Federation was forced to register as a result, due to a grant it received from the Norwegian government.

While the opinion simply applied existing law, FARA compliance experts saw it as a turning point in DOJ's approach to foreign-funded nonprofits in the U.S.

What's happening: DOJ is now soliciting comments from stakeholders and the public on new FARA regulations, and nonprofits and their representatives are warning of dire consequences for American charities and advocacy groups.

At least eight comments highlighted FARA's applicability to nonprofits and asked DOJ to modify or clarify its approach.

"Given the number and breadth of comments received by nonprofits and think tanks, I would anticipate the department feeling compelled to respond to the issues raised," Brandon Van Grack, a partner at Morrison Foerster and the former head of DOJ's FARA unit, told Axios in an interview.

What they're saying: Nonprofits "can be unwittingly caught up in FARA’s broad regulatory regime," warned the Council on Foundations in its DOJ comment.

Echoing other groups, the Council said FARA registration can "create a stigma of foreign control, burden protected rights under the First Amendment, and significantly impact their mission and ability to help others."

AFP, NRDC and the ACLU joined 11 other groups in warning that "FARA’s overbreadth and vagueness can undermine and chill First Amendment rights to speech and association."

"Being labeled as a foreign agent under FARA would put our neutrality and independence in jeopardy," wrote the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.

Nonprofits sound alarm on DOJ foreign agent rule

Nonprofits are warning that overzealous enforcement of foreign agent laws could chill free speech and politicize transparency laws.

Illustration of an anvil hanging over a pile of cash

Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA)

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Data: Axios research; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios

Donald Trump has now endorsed more than 100 GOP candidates on 2022 ballots as he seeks to build an unprecedented legacy for an ex-U.S. president by shaping the future of his party.

Why it matters: The midterms present a big test for Trump's post-presidential potency in GOP politics — and set the table for his role in 2024.

Driving the news: Texas' approaching March 1 primary drove a slew of Trump endorsements over the past week and took him into triple digits.

The big picture: Trump has backed dozens of incumbents but also at least a dozen primary challengers to incumbent Republicans, targeting those who voted for his impeachment or conviction as part of his effort to purge "disloyal" Republicans from the ranks.

In several cases in the U.S. House and state legislatures, incumbents have opted to retire rather than risk losing to Trump-backed insurgents.

Trump also has picked favorites in crowded primaries for some open Senate seats, including Reps. Ted Budd in North Carolina and Mo Brooks in Alabama. 

He's not yet endorsed in major races in Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri.

What they're saying: Trump spokesperson Taylor Budowich told Axios in a statement that Trump's endorsement "is the most powerful and valuable asset in American politics" and "the 2022 MAGA ticket will propel the America First agenda into legislative and executive offices across the nation."

But, but, but: Trump has struggled to maintain the reach he had with voters in previous elections after being banned from mainstream social media platforms following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. 

A memo last month from the conservative Club for Growth PAC cites a finding from one poll that less than half of primary voters in the Alabama contest were aware of Trump's endorsement of Brooks.

Trump makes most of his endorsements in statements through his political action committee, Save America PAC, also posted in the social media app Telegram.

Some endorsements have been made as surprises at rallies.

The Trump 2022 endorsement tracker

The midterms present a big test for Donald Trump's post-presidential potency in GOP politics.

Donald Trump

The U.S. embassy in Moscow on Sunday issued a security warning regarding possible threats to Americans in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Driving the news: "According to media sources, there have been threats of attacks against shopping centers, railway and metro stations, and other public gathering places in major urban areas, including Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as in areas of heightened tension along the Russian border with Ukraine," according to the alert.

The embassy notice encouraged Americans to "avoid crowds," "review your personal security plans," "carry proper identification, including a U.S. passport with a current Russian visa" and "have evacuation plans that do not rely on U.S. government assistance," among other suggestions.

State of play: Following a tense weekend of back-and-forth and conflicting-narratives about whether Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, President Biden convened a meeting of the National Security Council on Sunday and will speak with French President Emmanuel Macron later in the day.

Macron and Putin spoke by phone earlier on Sunday, agreeing on “the need to prioritize a diplomatic solution to the current crisis,” according to a statement from Élysée Palace. 

Macron also spoke on Sunday with and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Editor's note: This story is developing and has been updated with additional information. 

U.S. embassy in Moscow urges Americans to avoid crowds, cites "threats of attacks" in major urban areas

"There have been threats of attacks against shopping centers, railway and metro stations, and other public gathering places in major urban areas," the alert warned.

A person walking alongside the us embassy.

Photo: Vladimir Gerdo\TASS via Getty Images

Russia

A "megadrought" that grips the Southwest has broken another record, according to a new study. The last 22 years now rank as the driest such period since at least 800 AD, with human emissions of greenhouse gases accounting for about 42% of the drought's severity. 

The big picture: The new study updates findings from research published in 2020 that found evidence for the first partially human-caused megadrought in the Southwest, but noted that a drought in the 1500s rivaled its intensity and duration. That is no longer the case, the new research shows. 

Driving the news: The study looks closely at the 2000 to 2021 period and finds that across southwestern North America, this period was the hottest and driest stretch since at least 1901. 

Human-caused climate change is increasing drought severity by increasing evaporation from the soils, vegetation and inland waterways. 

This is evident in soil moisture trends, among other indications of drought severity. 

The ongoing drought, the study says, "would not be on a megadrought trajectory in terms of severity or duration without [human-caused] climate change," the study states.

Between the lines: The study was published in 2000 and marked the first time human-induced climate change had been blamed for setting off a megadrought. It contained some hope that the drought was ending in 2019, thanks to more abundant rains. 

But dry conditions returned in 2020 and intensified through 2022. The year 2021 was about as dry as 2002, which was drier than any other year for more than three centuries.

Even now, early winter hopes for drought recovery were dashed after record rains and mountain snows in December were followed by equally extreme dry conditions in December into February. 

California snow cover data released Monday shows that the statewide average snowpack declined from 160% in December to 73% as of Feb. 14. This indicates a rare mid-winter melt due to unusually mild temperatures and little to no precipitation. 

Threat level: The ongoing drought is affecting water resources in the growing region. Last year, Lake Mead in Nevada hit a record low, which helped to trigger the first federal "water shortage" declaration for the Colorado River basin. This in turn set off water allocation reductions to several states.

What's next: The study cites previous work showing that human-caused climate change, largely due to the burning of fossil fuels, would raise the odds of long, widespread and severe region-wide megadroughts returning to the Southwest after a multi-century-long absence. 

The appearance of a 22-year-long drought so early, when the planet has only warmed by about 1.1°C (2°F), the study states, is an indication that "this worst-case scenario already appears to be coming to pass."

What they're saying: "It’s clear that at 22 years old, there is no evidence that the 2000s drought is starting to relent," said Park Williams, a climate scientist at UCLA and lead author of the new study, via email. 

Go deeper: A very, very, very dry future for the U.S. West

Editor's note: This story originally ran on Feb. 14.

Southwest megadrought: Last 2 decades were driest in 1,200 years

New study finds that human emissions of greenhouse gases are influencing this event.

Man driving a measuring stick into snow cover to determine its depth.

Sean de Guzman takes a sample of the snowpack on Feb. 1 near Twin Bridges, Calif. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Axios

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