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National

Nancy Pelosi has more power than anybody to decide whether Trump gets Congress' approval to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement with his renegotiated United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. And the signs Republicans are seeing from the speaker are not filling them with hope. 

Driving the news: Last week, Pelosi told Politico's Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer that Mexico needed to pass labor law reforms before the House could even consider Trump's replacement to NAFTA. And now, per a source who shared the invitation with me, Pelosi has invited AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka to her speaker's meeting on Wednesday to present on the USMCA. 

Some Republicans close to the process are taking that as an ominous sign. Trumka "is pushing for changes and Mexico to not only pass but 'implement' labor law changes," said one of these sources. 

"They may be trying to slow walk this thing to death. The longer this takes, the harder it will be with 2020 Dem primary's full swing right around the corner."

Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill responded: "Our last guest was [U.S. Trade Representative Robert] Lighthizer for a similar briefing. We made clear we would be hearing from the full range of stakeholders."

What to watch: Per the IndyStar, Pence on Thursday promoted the USMCA to Indiana farmers who are concerned about tariffs the administration has imposed. Pence spokeswoman Alyssa Farah tells me the VP has more dates around the country lined up to sell the USMCA.

A Pelosi-shaped cloud over Trump's NAFTA 2.0 chances

Pelosi has more power than anybody to decide whether Trump gets Congress' approval to replace NAFTA.

Photo: Chen Mengtong/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images

Politics

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Speaking to Senate Republicans over lunch, Mitch McConnell dryly mimicked Gerald Ford's inaugural address after the disgrace of Richard Nixon. 

Details: It was the afternoon in March when the conference had to take a divisive vote on whether to renounce President Trump's circumvention of Congress to fund the wall. “Well, colleagues," McConnell said, according to two sources in the room, "all I can say is our long national nightmare is over."

Between the lines: McConnell was trying to empathize with a Republican conference that had fretted for weeks about Trump's emergency decision. McConnell publicly supported the president's use of emergency powers, but his message was for the dozen Republicans who would defy Trump that day.

McConnell was showing them that he understood they had to do what they had to do, and he reiterated he wouldn't pressure them to stand by Trump on the vote, according to sources familiar with the leader's private comments over many weeks.

A senior administration official told me this had followed weeks of frustration with the White House’s shutdown decision.

Two of McConnell's top White House allies — White House counsel Don McGahn and chief of staff Gen. John Kelly — had departed. And a tactical foe — White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney — was ascendant. 

"Mulvaney was a shutdown guy," said a senior administration official. 

A source close to McConnell countered that McConnell has always dealt with Trump one-on-one, "and that's the way he wants it."

The big picture: Republican senators have noticed an evolution in McConnell's relationship with Trump. When Trump first became president, McConnell avoided any public disagreement with him. But in the past two weeks, McConnell has condemned two of Trump's ideas as politically disastrous:

Diving back into repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act after the Republicans spectacularly failed to do so in 2017. In a Senate lunch two weeks ago, per a source in the room, McConnell said: "I called the president and I said 'Just so we don't have any misunderstandings, we are not going to vote on health care before 2020. Just so we're clear. And I'm not going to put together a working group. If you want a plan, it's going to have to be yours. But we’re not going to vote on it.'" 

Trump's threat to close the ports of entry at the southern border. McConnell warned of a "potentially catastrophic economic impact on our country."

Trump quickly backed off of both ideas, and he didn't show any annoyance with McConnell.

"Leader McConnell has an excellent working relationship with the president," says McConnell spokesman David Popp. "They will continue to work side by side for Kentucky and the American people."

The bottom line: Trump and McConnell have a businesslike relationship, and it works for McConnell. The past few months have nearly broken the Republican conference, but don't expect McConnell to become a regular Trump critic.

Inside Mitch McConnell's rocky ride on the Trump Train

In the past two weeks, McConnell has condemned two of Trump's ideas as politically disastrous.

Illustration of mitch mcconnell and trump

Mitch McConnell

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Don McGahn, who has kept his head down since leaving as White House counsel, shared some off-the-record thoughts on Thursday in a lunch with about 40 senior Republican Senate aides. 

Details: "I spent the last couple of years getting yelled at," he said, per two sources at the lunch, held in the Capitol's Strom Thurmond room. "And you may soon read about some of the more spirited debates I had with the president." McGahn didn't explicitly mention Mueller's report, but sources in the room said they understood him to be referring to it when he said this.

Why it matters: McGahn was part of key conversations Mueller's team scrutinized when determining whether Trump obstructed justice — a decision Mueller declined to make.

McGahn was invited as part of a regular series of off-the-record lunches. Mitt Romney's staff served Mexican food. And while McGahn mostly praised Trump, he also hinted at the brutality of his tenure, according to sources who were there.

McGahn said the president runs the White House with a "hub and spokes model," often assigning the same task to multiple people. The point, per sources in the room, is that there is no chief of staff in the usual sense.

Trump doesn't trust one person as a gatekeeper, per McGahn. He dislikes intermediaries. And no member of staff is empowered because Trump is the hub and he makes the decisions; all the senior aides are spokes.

McGahn said a big part of his job as White House counsel was to deregulate and rein in the "administrative state."

He said he did that by writing deregulatory executive orders and picking judicial nominees who wanted to limit the power of federal agencies.

He talked about Trump nominating judges who agree that the courts have given too much flexibility to federal agencies to interpret laws and enforce regulations. 

McGahn said they looked for potential judges who wanted to reconsider the "Chevron deference," which requires the courts to defer to federal agencies' "reasonable" interpretations of ambiguous laws.

McGahn said Trump's judges will spend 30–40 years unwinding the power of executive agencies. 

McGahn marveled to the group about what Trump can get away with.

He said Trump could do something that's "180 degrees opposite" of what McGahn advised — but it somehow works. "If it was 179 degrees, it wouldn't work," McGahn said, according to the sources.

He said Trump usually takes the conservative side of any given debate — but makes decisions so fast that it was important for McGahn to get to Trump quickly before he announced a decision potentially based on bad information. 

If Trump says something publicly, he said, it's hard to pull him back.

Scoop: Former White House counsel Don McGahn off the record

McGahn was part of key conversations Mueller's team scrutinized when determining whether Trump obstructed justice.

Don McGahn. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Don McGahn

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Some Democratic candidates for president are adding Fox News to their campaign stops as the primary battle heats up, hoping to reach as many potential voters as possible.

Why it matters: The debate among Democrats over whether or how the party should engage with Fox News is sowing division within the party ahead of 2020.

"Mayor Pete" Buttigieg appeared on Fox's political morning show "Fox News Sunday" with Chris Wallace on March 17. 

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee appeared on the network's morning show "Fox and Friends" March 29 to urge President Trump to release his tax returns and to talk about building a clean energy economy. 

Former tech executive Andrew Yang appeared on Tucker Carlson Tonight on March 2 to talk about automation and the future of work, and on The Story with Martha MacCallum on March 20 to discuss his universal basic income proposal.

Rep. John Delaney has appeared on Fox at least 8 times since announcing his campaign, including an apperance on The Story in February to discuss courting millennial voters.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper appeared on Fox in January before officially announcing their candidacies.

Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, considering running as an independent, appeared on "Fox and Friends" on Tuesday to discuss the country's mounting debt. The network also hosted a town hall with him on Thursday.

Driving the news: While a growing number of Democrats have appeared on the network over the past few months, it was Sen. Bernie Sanders' announcement last week that he will participate in a Fox News town hall in Pennsylvania on April 15 that has caused the most stir. 

What they're saying: Some progressive commentators argue that Democratic candidates, including Sanders, shouldn't give Fox News any air time, given reports about the network's cozy relationship with the Trump administration and criticism that the network provides a platform for white nationalism.

Others add that by choosing to appear on Fox News now, candidates are inadvertently promoting the network. Angelo Carusone, president of liberal think tank Media Matters, tweeted that by going on Fox before the network's annual "upfront" ad sales presentation, Sanders is "actively working to help Fox News." (Note: Fox already hosted its upfront presentation in March)

But for the candidates appearing on Fox, or choosing to participate in Fox town halls, the argument is that it's important to reach potential voters — whomever they are and regardless of the network through which they consume the news.

“To me, it is important to distinguish Fox News from the many millions of people who watch Fox News. I think it is important to say to those people, 'You know what? I know that many of you voted for Donald Trump, but he lied to you.'" 

Sen. Bernie Sanders said Friday on The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

Meanwhile, Republicans are lauding the decision. "Good for Bernie. He may be wrong about everything, but at least he's not as cowardly as the rest of the Dems' 2020 field," Herman Cain tweeted‏ in response to the news of Sanders' town hall.

The big picture: Despite the efforts of presidential hopefuls, the Democratic party is still distancing itself from the network, while trying to be supportive of candidates' decisions.

The Democratic National Committee tells Axios that it still doesn't plan to host any debates with Fox News this cycle due an explosive story in the The New Yorker last month about the network's ties to the Trump administration. The decision has drawn criticism from Fox News hosts, who say they're disappointed in the decision. 

"While the DNC does not believe that Fox is equipped to be a partner for a 2020 debate because of concerns of fairness at the highest levels within their organization, the DNC believes that we must reach all voters, including their audience," DNC  spokesperson Xochitl Hinojosa told The Daily Beast.

Fox News says the DNC should reconsider: “We’re pleased that the DNC agrees with Fox News that successful Democratic presidential candidates must engage directly with FNC’s large and diverse audience through televised town halls. That logic extends to primary debates, so we continue to hope the DNC will reconsider its decision to bar top-notch journalists Bret Baier, Martha MacCallum and Chris Wallace from the debate stage," says Bill Sammon, SVP & Managing Editor – Washington at Fox News.

The bottom line: The consensus among several Democratic strategists that Axios has spoken to is that regardless of Fox's reputation, it's still an important campaign vehicle to reach voters, especially those in the white, working class who may have become disillusioned by President Trump.

 “There are millions of highly reasonable and very persuadable voters across this country who watch Fox News, and for Democratic campaigns to ignore avenues for speaking to these Americans is a missed opportunity."

Niko Duffy, Managing Director at CommonWealth Media

2020 Democrats divided over appearing on Fox News

“There are millions of highly reasonable and very persuadable voters...who watch Fox News."

Jay Inslee, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders. Photos: Getty Images

2020 presidential election

2020 election

2020 conventions

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

The majority of 2020 Democratic hopefuls are sponsoring or considering plans to dismantle the electoral college. Their pledges follow a growing movement for change at the state level and represent frustration over twice losing to Republican candidates in the past 20 years — Donald Trump and George W. Bush — despite winning the popular vote.

By the numbers: Eight Democratic 2020 candidates support eliminating the electoral college in favor of the popular vote, per the Washington Post. Four Democrats are open to the idea, and only 3 want to keep it.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.): "I believe very simply that, in presidential elections, the person with the most votes should be the president of the United States," Booker said in a CNN town hall. But he doesn't believe the electoral college will be abolished anytime soon, and he added, "We have to win the next election under the rules that are there now."

Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke: "You had an election in 2016 where the loser got 3 million more votes than the victor. It puts some states out of play altogether, they don't feel like their votes really count," O'Rourke said to an MSNBC correspondent. He also supports improving the electoral college by having states award electors proportionally as a stopgap before the college is potentially eliminated, per the Washington Post. 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.): She called for ending the electoral college at a CNN town hall in March, endorsing "a constitutional amendment that protects the right to vote for every American citizen and makes sure that vote gets counted," saying "the way we can make that happen is that we can have national voting and that means get rid of the electoral college."

Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro: He identified eliminating the electoral college as one of the "important first steps" for enabling more Americans to "participate in democracy." 

Gov. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.): "It ought to be one person, one vote," he said in a Vox interview. Inslee also encouraged other states to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which currently has 14 states and D.C. signed on in support. "As soon as you get to a majority of states, you wouldn’t need a constitutional amendment." The compact has 189 out of the necessary 270 votes to be enacted.

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg: "It’s gotta go," Buttigieg told Washington Post columnist Greg Sargent. "We need a national popular vote. It would be reassuring from the perspective of believing that we’re a democracy."

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.): “The Electoral College has distorted the outcome of elections and disenfranchised millions of voters, and I think that’s wrong. I believe that it's time to get rid of the Electoral College, and I am ready to fight in Congress and around the country to pass this Constitutional Amendment to do that," Gillibrand wrote in the bill she introduced in April alongside other Democratic senators. 

New Age spiritual guru Marianne Williamson: "Changes to the Constitution should not be taken lightly, but at this point there is too much of a risk to our democracy when the popular vote can be so easily overridden," Williamson told the Post.

Former Rep. John Delaney: "If I was starting from scratch, yes, but trying to abolish the electoral college now is impractical," Delaney told the Post.

Former tech executive Andrew Yang: "Abolishing the electoral college would be difficult and would wind up further favoring high-density high-population areas with big media markets that would be the focus of national campaigns," Yang told the Post. But Yang supports making changes "to the way we select the president, including how electors are apportioned and implementing ranked-choice voting." 

Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper: "While many of us are frustrated with the way the electoral college works ... there is no possibility of abolishing it in the near term," Hickenlooper told the Post.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.): "I'm open to the discussion," Harris said in an interview with Jimmy Kimmel. "I mean, there's no question that the popular vote has been diminished in terms of making the final decision about who's the president of the United States and we need to deal with that."

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii): "There are reforms that need to take place to make it so that our votes are being cast, and counted and represented in the outcome of our elections," Gabbard told a Fox News reporter. "I think there are pros and cons to the existing electoral college and to getting rid of it." 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.): "I believe that it is hard to defend the current system in which one candidate receives 3 million votes less than his opponent, but still becomes president," Sanders told the Post, adding that he believes "we need to reexamine the concept of the electoral college."

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.): She told the Post she is open to eliminating the electoral college, but did not provide further details. 

Go deeper: Everything you need to know about every 2020 presidential candidate

Where each 2020 Democrat stands on abolishing the electoral college

Eight of them support eliminating the electoral college in favor of the popular vote.

This image is a four-way split screen of Democratic candidates in this order, from left to right: Inslee, Gillibrand, Buttigieg, and Warren.

Gov. Jay Inslee, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Photo: Getty Images

Axios

Sunday's top stories

A Pelosi-shaped cloud over Trump's NAFTA 2.0 chances

Inside Mitch McConnell's rocky ride on the Trump Train

Scoop: Former White House counsel Don McGahn off the record

2020 Democrats divided over appearing on Fox News

Where each 2020 Democrat stands on abolishing the electoral college

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