Axios

As the Iran war drives up jet fuel costs, travelers are bracing for airlines to raise ticket prices — making already expensive trips feel even more daunting.

The big picture: Travelers aren't powerless against rising fares and can still find opportunities to avoid even the worst price hikes, experts say.

Nearly a month into the Iran war, there are signs the conflict is poised to expand rather than conclude.

The big picture: Potential future events in the war — like escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or major changes Iran's leadership — could determine when the conflict ends.

Oil prices at four-year highs (and maybe climbing further) might nudge record U.S. production even higher — but don't expect a new boom.

Why it matters: Companies in onshore shale — the most nimble part of the industry — need lots of convincing to invest far beyond current plans, analysts say.

It has now become a familiar Wall Street two-step: Stocks stumble in the morning and mostly recover by the end of the day after President Trump says something that's viewed as reassuring about the Iran war.

Why it matters: Investors are jumping at any sign of an end to the Iran war — now in its third week and far longer than they initially predicted.

The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump can't end the war, at least on his terms, until he breaks Iran's chokehold on shipping through the strait. In the meantime, global energy prices are surging.

Iranian hackers tied to a recent U.S. cyberattack have been running a broader intimidation campaign that involved issuing death threats and suggesting they have ties to a Mexican cartel to "commit acts of violence," the Justice Department said Thursday.

Why it matters: The campaign shows Iran's cyber playbook is moving beyond hacking companies and is now pairing cyberattacks with tactics to coerce targets and shape narratives.

House Republicans blanched at the Pentagon's reported $200 billion price tag for Iran, but many are embracing the eye-popping number to help energize a stalled reconciliation process.

Why it matters: GOP leaders have struggled to build consensus around a "reconciliation 2.0" package. But injecting a must-pass defense spending bill into the equation will give Speaker Mike Johnson the urgency he needs to bring it to the floor.

The Iran war is driving markets down and energy prices up — and the duration and direction of the conflict will partially be determined by what takes place in a few key locations.

Why it matters: Escalating tensions could all shape how and when the war ends. Any attack or strategic move could push the war into a new phase.

The Pentagon is highlighting new national security concerns about Anthropic's use of foreign workers, including from China, according to a court filing.

Why it matters: The Defense Department is raising red flags about a key element of the AI industry — its reliance on global talent — as it moves to dismiss Anthropic's lawsuit.

Following strikes hitting military targets on Iran's Kharg Island last week, President Trump is escalating threats to take the island in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The big picture: Just 15 miles off Iran's coast, Kharg Island handles about 90% of the country's crude oil exports — and a direct hit on the export terminal would shut down most of that flow.