Trump's team game planning for potential Iran peace talks
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After three weeks of war, the Trump administration has begun initial discussions on the next phase and what peace talks with Iran might look like, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.
Why it matters: President Trump said Friday that he was considering "winding down" the war, though U.S. officials said the expectation was there would still be two to three additional weeks of fighting. In the meantime, Trump's advisers want to start laying groundwork for diplomacy.
Behind the scenes: Trump's envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are involved in the discussions around potential diplomacy, sources say.
- Any deal to end the war would need to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and also establish a long-term agreement on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles and support for proxies in the region.
- There has been no direct contact between the U.S. and Iran in recent days, though Egypt, Qatar and the U.K. have all passed messages between the two, a U.S. official and two additional sources with knowledge said. Egypt and Qatar have informed the U.S. and Israel that Iran is interested in negotiating, but with very tough terms.
- The Iranian demands include a ceasefire, guarantees that the war will not resume in the future, and compensation.
Between the lines: "Our view is we've stunted Iran's growth," said one U.S. official who believes the Iranians will come to the table. The official said the U.S. wants Iran to make six commitments:
- No missile program for five years.
- Zero uranium enrichment.
- Decommissioning of the reactors at the Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities that the U.S. and Israel bombed last year.
- Strict outside observation protocols around the creation and use of centrifuges and related machinery that could advance a nuclear weapons program.
- Arms control treaties with regional countries that include a missile cap no higher than 1,000.
- No financing for proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen or Hamas in Gaza.
Reality check: Iran has repeatedly rejected several of those demands in the past, and leaders in Tehran have noted the difficulty of negotiating with a president who has engaged in talks in the past only to suddenly bomb them.
- Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Indian counterpart on Saturday that normalizing the situation in the Strait of Hormuz would require the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking Iran and commit not to resume the attacks in future, the Iranian foreign ministry said.
- As for Trump, he said Friday that he does not oppose talks, but is not interested at the moment in meeting Iran's demands for a ceasefire.
- Trump also sees the demand for reparations as a "non-starter," a U.S. official said.
Between the lines: A second official said there could be room to negotiate over returning frozen assets to Iran.
- "They call it reparations. Maybe we call it return of frozen money. There's many different ways that we can wordsmith so that it solves politically what they need to solve, to develop consensus in their system," the official said.
- "That's wordsmithing. We have to first get to the place of having the high-quality problem of wordsmithing."
State of play: Trump's team is currently trying to answer two key questions: Who in Iran is the best point of contact for negotiations, and which country is best mediator?
- Araghchi has been the primary intermediary in past talks, but Trump advisers see him as a "fax machine" rather than someone who is empowered to actually deliver a deal, U.S. officials say.
- They're trying to figure out who actually makes decisions in Iran and how to get in touch with them, U.S. officials say.
- And while Oman mediated the last round of nuclear talks, the U.S. is seeking a different mediator, ideally Qatar, due to mutual distrust with the Omanis. U.S. officials said the Qataris proved themselves to be effective and trusted mediators in Gaza.
- The Qataris are willing the help behind the scenes, but don't want to be the main official mediators, two sources said.
What's next: The sources said Trump's advisers want to be prepared if talks with Iran take shape in the near future.
- Witkoff and Kushner's terms will be similar to the ones they presented in Geneva two days before the war started, according to the sources.
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