Trump's "red wave" could sink GOP

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The president's contempt for mainstream polling and the media may come back to haunt him in November. Several top Republican operatives working on the midterm elections told me Trump's fanciful "red wave" predictions could depress Republican turnout and, ironically, serve to make any blue wave even bigger.

What we're hearing: One of those strategists told me he's detecting something interesting — and concerning — from focus groups of Trump voters. "You have Trump-MAGA loyalists, and their friends on Fox, who have reached a point of not believing polls and media people telling them things are going wrong, that I believe is actually causing the Republicans problems," the strategist told me, granted anonymity in order to be candid.

The partisan divide over who should be protected from discrimination

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A new Morning Consult survey of 2,201 U.S. adults found a sharp divide among Democrats and Republicans regarding groups they think the federal government should offer legal protections to. The only group to receive nearly equal support among both parties was veterans.

Key finding: Republicans believe that "discrimination does not translate into a widespread desire for federal protections," the report said. Dan Cassino, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University, told Morning Consult that conservatives prefer individuals to solve such issues, not the federal government.