Axios

Some Federal Reserve officials wanted to keep interest rate increases on the table, given the stubborn inflation that was set to be amplified by the Iran war, according to minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 policy meeting, released Wednesday.

Why it matters: Even as many officials see rate cuts down the line, the prospect of increasing rates highlights the uncertainty about the path of borrowing costs this year.

Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But the economic fallout from five weeks of effective closure is just beginning.

Why it matters: Supply chains don't unsnarl overnight. The gloomiest forecasts for the U.S. economy from the war may not come to pass, but shortages and price shocks will continue to pinch the world for months.

• Moreover, there's no certainty that the two-week ceasefire will turn into lasting peace.

President Trump pulled back from the brink last night, after having threatened to destroy Iran's "civilization," agreeing to a two-week ceasefire.

• In so doing, he also may have saved the next generation of defense-tech companies.

Gasoline prices could start reversing nationally in the next two days by dropping a few cents daily, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Average U.S. gas prices have climbed more than 70 cents over the past month due to the Iran conflict, presenting a worsening political headache for President Trump.

The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire Tuesday night — with a commitment to open the Strait of Hormuz — and oil prices plunged, the biggest one-day fall for Brent crude since the 1991 Gulf War.

Why it matters: Investors seemed to see it coming, even as many others agonized over President Trump's threat to eliminate Iran's "civilization," and stocks barely flinched Tuesday, just as they have declined only modestly since the war started.

NATO chief Mark Rutte returns to Washington this week, facing fresh doubts about the alliance inside the White House and on the Hill.

Why it matters: His relationship with President Trump will be put to the test, as the geopolitical stakes — the near-future of the transatlantic bond, ongoing war in the Middle East, gas-price gloom, European rearmament and more — ratchet up.

The Trump administration is seeking $1.5 trillion for defense in fiscal 2027 — an eye-popping amount that bets on hundreds of billions of dollars in reconciliation.

Why it matters: Some thought President Trump was being hyperbolic when he floated the number earlier this year. He wasn't.

• The budget proposal brags about the figure exceeding "even the Reagan buildup by approaching the historic increases just prior to World War II."

The architects of MAGA's media empire are in open revolt against President Trump, disgusted by his threat to destroy Iran's "whole civilization."

Why it matters: Trump's political strength has always depended less on party institutions than on a decentralized media ecosystem — podcasters, streamers and activists who translate his message to millions of loyal voters.

Anthropic has begun a tightly controlled release of Mythos, the first AI model that officials believe is capable of bringing down a Fortune 100 company, crippling swaths of the internet or penetrating vital national defense systems.

Why it matters: This is the scary phase of AI — a model deemed so powerful that its full release into the wild could unleash untold catastrophe. So only carefully vetted companies and organizations, about 40 so far, are getting access.

President Trump's super PAC plans to begin unloading its massive war chest around Memorial Day — giving a major boost to Republicans heading into a treacherous midterm election, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Trump is cratering in the polls but his operation has one of the biggest political bank accounts in history, and aims to unleash it for an election that will pit Democrats' momentum vs. Republicans' money.