Axios

The oil market is shifting quickly from a focus on war-related shortages to an emerging supply glut.

Why it matters: Oil prices drive inflation expectations, which, in turn, drive the interest rates that have been closely correlated to the stock market.

Toyota says it will move production of the Tacoma pickup truck to the United States from Mexico as part of a $3.6 billion investment in its San Antonio, Texas, manufacturing campus.

Why it matters: The move allows the Japanese carmaker to sidestep uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policy with Mexico and Canada, and will no doubt please the Trump administration, which has been pressuring automakers to build more vehicles in the United States.

South Korean securities regulators are planning to sanction MBK Partners, the country's largest private equity firm, over its ownership of retailer Homeplus.

Why it matters: South Korea is at a crossroads when it comes to private equity investment, as first evidenced by the Coupang situation.

Memory chipmakers are raking in record profits with no end in sight. That may be a problem.

Why it matters: Shares of Micron Technology, Sandisk and the like have helped carry the market over the last year, as seemingly inexhaustible demand from the AI boom pushed profitability to unprecedented levels.

President Trump told Axios Saturday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked him for a meeting at the White House, and that it could take place as early as next week after Trump returns from the NATO summit.

• "We get along very good. [Netanyahu] knows who the boss is," Trump said in a brief phone interview, referring to himself.

Why it matters: This would be the first meeting between the two leaders since their dramatic Situation Room meeting in February, when Netanyahu presented his plan for launching a joint war against Iran.

The Ukrainian military is proving it can blow up pretty much whatever it wants.

Why it matters: Fewer and fewer places feel safe inside Russia, as oil facilities, weapons factories, convoys and bombers burn.

OpenAI may give the U.S. government a 5% stake in the company, per the Financial Times. The proposal is in very preliminary conversations, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: If the overture is taken up by the Trump administration, that would mean the government would have a vested interest in weighing whether or not to limit the release of an OpenAI model.

The average regular U.S. gasoline price is $3.85 as of Thursday morning, per AAA data.

Why it matters: That's lower than it was, but it's by far the highest price heading into the July 4 weekend since 2022, when the national average was $4.80 on the holiday itself.

The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, the government said Thursday.

Why it matters: Hiring lost momentum after months of surprising strength — a sign that economic uncertainty might be weighing on employers.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators are in Doha for talks focusing primarily on the Strait of Hormuz, with the Trump administration making the case that Iran stands to gain much more from a nuclear deal than it could generate from tolls in the strait.

Why it matters: The parties gave themselves 60 days to reach a comprehensive nuclear deal, but two weeks into that window they're still arguing over the terms of the memorandum of understanding they already signed. Currently, the collapse of that initial deal looks more likely than agreement on a final one.