Global, U.S. EV sales show a tale of two markets
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New reports underscore how electric vehicle sales are rising globally even as they've dropped sharply in the U.S. — and how the Iran war could lead even more people to buy them.
Why it matters: EVs help displace oil use and lower emissions. Petroleum price spikes from the Iran war appear to be boosting sales in some places, too.
Driving the news: Sales of purely electric and plug-in hybrids combined are expected to grow to 23 million in 2026, representing about 28% of total sales, per the International Energy Agency.
- It would follow another yearly record in 2025.
- The 2026 rise is expected despite a slowdown in China, the largest market by far, and a U.S. decline after consumer subsidies were removed.
- IEA projects that sales in Asia Pacific countries other than China will surge over 50%, and they'll jump 45% in Latin America.
State of play: Other fresh data points show how the removal of U.S. tax credits in the 2025 budget law and other policies are changing the domestic market.
- Consumer spending on EVs plummeted in Q4 2025 after the credits lapsed, and remained flat in Q1 of 2026, per wider clean investment data out today from the research firm Rhodium Group and MIT.
- The spending is down 23% from Q1 of 2025.
The intrigue: A new — and smaller — U.S. normal for post-credit EV sales could be emerging.
- Rhodium and MIT say the flat consumer investment in Q1 could signal "stabilization" after the lapse of the credits.
- Separate data from Cox Automotive finds that new U.S. EV sales dipped again in April and were down 23% year-over-year last month.
- The firm, which tracks fully battery-powered EVs (not plug-in hybrids), finds that EVs were 5.6% of U.S. new-car sales last month.
What we're watching: There are already signs that higher fuel prices from the Iran war are lifting sales in some markets. But whether the change will last is another question.
- Timur Gül, IEA's chief technology officer, told reporters that policymakers may seek "structural opportunities" to boost energy security and shield consumers from this crisis or others in the future.
- IEA sees potential for an even higher total than its current 2026 projection of 23 million EV sales globally — depending "how, when and which policies are enacted amid the current energy crisis," the report finds.
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