Axios Live: Latino voters emerge as "swingiest of swing voters" ahead of midterms
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"MSNBC Now" co-anchor Alicia Menendez and Axios' Astrid Galván in conversation at an Axios Live event. Photo credit: Denny Henry for Axios
WASHINGTON — Latino voters are increasingly driving the political narrative as economic anxiety and immigration concerns leave a majority undecided in critical swing districts, political experts and media executives said at an Axios event.
Why it matters: As the House map heading into the midterms hinges on razor-thin margins, early engagement and deeper structural investments in Latino communities may dictate the balance of political power.
- Axios Local Texas editor Astrid Galván moderated a discussion with Alicia Menendez, co-anchor of "MSNBC Now," and Axios race and justice reporter Russell Contreras talked with Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at The Cook Political Report. The May 20 event was sponsored by TelevisaUnivision.
Five key takeaways from the conversation:
1. Latino voters remain up for grabs heading into the election cycle.
- A new TelevisaUnivision/Harris poll showed 52% of registered Latino voters in 17 House swing districts are undecided or could change their mind.
- "These are the swingiest of the swing voters," Menendez said. "We used to be off here and people would talk about us as our own separate thing. ... We are the story now."
2. Financial struggles overshadow other issues, with the Latino swing vote "more attuned to the cost of living," Wasserman said.
- Shifting voting patterns are tied to economic pressures rather than party alignment, he said.
- 73% of Latinos in the new poll stated they are "merely surviving" financially, as affordability remains the top concern.
3. Tough immigration enforcement tactics create deep community anxiety and have altered how community organizers build relationships, Menendez said.
- For example, she said organizers with Make the Road New Jersey reported that residents have become too fearful to answer their front doors.
- "They were having to do a lot more of ... ¡¿Oye tú?! [listen here] .. talking to people through their windows about their basic rights and their rights to vote," Menendez said.
4. Latino support for President Trump is complex and should not be oversimplified as "buyer's remorse."
- "Even if Democrats recover a bit ... I don't think Democrats will get fully back to that [2016] level of support," Wasserman said.
5. Hyperlocal, year-round infrastructure is critical for mobilization, according to Menendez.
- Single mailers or dropping campaign ads right before an election fail to build trust with a diverse demographic, she said.
- "It needs to happen in a civil infrastructure way where you're making people feel safe and supported... in their ability to vote," Menendez said.
Content from the sponsor's segment:
In a View from the Top conversation, TelevisaUnivision CEO Daniel Alegre focused on how politicians can effectively connect with Latino audiences.
- A common mistake candidates make is sending a Spanish-speaking staffer because they don't speak the language themselves.
- "Hispanics actually want the politician to show up," Alegre said, noting that three-quarters of the community want candidates to appear in Spanish-language media even if they speak English. "It means that that individual is in touch with what is happening to Hispanics. The other part is being local and understanding what the local issues really are."
