Axios

A baseless conspiracy theory that Joe Biden would wear an electronic device in his ear during the first presidential debate on Tuesday went viral on social media hours before the event.

Why it matters: The conspiracy originated on social media before appearing in a text message sent by President Trump’s re-election campaign to supporters. It was then regurgitated by media outlets like Fox News and New York Post, who cited the Trump campaign, throughout the day, according to NBC News.

Seven former FDA commissioners accused the Trump administration of "undermining the credibility" of the agency in a Washington Post op-ed published Tuesday.

Why it matters: The editorial comes amid fears that the Trump administration has politicized the coronavirus response and is seeking expedited approval and distribution of a possible vaccine.

Amy Coney Barrett said in a questionnaire released by the Senate Judiciary Committee Tuesday that President Trump offered her the Supreme Court nomination on Sept. 21, five days before he announced the pick to the public.

Why it matters: According to the questionnaire, Trump offered Barrett the nomination just three days after Ruth Bader Ginsburg died, suggesting that the president knew early on that Barrett was his pick. Minutes after offering Barrett the nomination, however, Trump told reporters that he had not made up his mind and that five women were on the shortlist.

A federal appeals court on Tuesday upheld a lower court ruling that extended the deadline for counting mail-in ballots in Wisconsin until Nov. 9 as long as they are postmarked by the Nov. 3 election, AP reports.

Why it matters: It's a big win for Democrats that also means that the winner of Wisconsin, a key presidential swing state, may not be known for six days after the election. Republicans are likely to appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court, as the Pennsylvania GOP did after a similar ruling on Monday.

Go deeper: How the Supreme Court could decide the election

Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was overruled when he pushed to extend a "no-sail order" on passenger cruises into next year, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the conversation today in the White House Situation Room.

Why it matters: Cruise ships were the sites of some of the most severe early coronavirus outbreaks, before the industry shut down in March. And their future is just the latest disagreement between Redfield and members of President Trump's team.

President Trump will try to break Joe Biden's composure by going after his son Hunter and other family members in tonight's first presidential debate — a campaign source tells Axios "nothing will be off the table" — while Biden plans to stick to the economy, coronavirus and new revelations about how Trump avoided paying taxes.

Driving the news: Biden and Trump are set to debate at 9pm ET at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, and it will be moderated by Fox News' Chris Wallace.

Two polls out this week show Joe Biden leading over President Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania, indicating the Supreme Court nomination this past weekend may have failed to reset the race in Trump's favor and shift the conversation away from the COVID-19 pandemic, the New York Times reports.

Why it matters: While Biden could afford to lose the battleground state, he would have to pick up Arizona and win northern swing states that Democrats lost in 2016. Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 1 percentage point four years ago and "has virtually no path to a second term without Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes," the Times writes.

Former national security adviser Michael Flynn's lawyer told a federal judge Tuesday that she briefed President Trump in recent weeks on the case and asked him not to issue a pardon, Politico reports.

Why it matters: Flynn lawyer Sidney Powell was responding to questions from U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan in a highly anticipated hearing on Tuesday. Sullivan's questioning highlights the judge's concerns about the Justice Department's bid in May to dismiss prosecution against Flynn, who pleaded guilty in 2017 to lying to the FBI about his contacts with the former Russian ambassador.

Former special counsel Robert Mueller in a statement on Tuesday defended his team's handling of the Russia investigation after Andrew Weissmann, a former prosecutor in his office, wrote in a new book that investigators should have done more to hold President Trump accountable.

Driving the news: In the tell-all book, “Where Law Ends,” released on Tuesday, Weissman addresses what he calls the special prosecutor office's failures in its investigation.

Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, issued two subpoenas on Tuesday in an attempt to compel testimony from the Department of Homeland Security's head of intelligence, while accusing the agency of stonewalling testimony from a whistleblower.

Why it matters: The House and Senate Intelligence committees are investigating the DHS based on a former senior officials' whistleblower complaint that he was told to stop giving intelligence assessments on threats of Russian interference in the U.S. because it "made the president look bad."

Joe Biden's campaign released his 2019 tax returns on Tuesday, showing that he and his wife, Jill, paid nearly $300,000 in federal taxes last year.

Why it matters: The release, timed just hours before the first presidential debate, comes days after a bombshell New York Times report said that President Trump paid only $750 in federal taxes in 2016 and 2017. Biden's team is hoping to make the tax contrast a sticking point during their showdown tonight.

TikTok said Tuesday that it's debuting a new in-app elections guide to connect users with credible information about the elections from sources like the National Association of Secretaries of State, BallotReady, and SignVote.

Why it matters: The move comes amid scrutiny from the Trump Administration over whether the Chinese-owned app is a national security threat.

Cook Political Report shifted Tuesday its 2020 presidential election outlook for Ohio and Iowa — two key battleground states that President Trump won in 2016 — moving them from "lean Republican" to "toss up."

Why it matters: It represents a further narrowing of the electoral map for Trump with only five weeks until Election Day, especially because Cook projects that neither state is currently a decisive tipping point for Joe Biden.

In 2016, the Trump campaign's voter database placed 3.5 million Black voters in a category called "deterrence" with the aim of trying to discourage them from voting, according to an investigation by a British TV network.

Driving the news: The U.K.'s Channel Four News got a hold of what it says is the Trump campaign's 2016 voter database of nearly 200 million records.

Women have historically not been awarded the first debate moderator slot, even though more women have been selected to moderate debates in recent history.

The state of play: The one exception is Barbara Walters of ABC News, who moderated the first presidential debate in 1984 between Republican President Ronald Reagan and Democratic former Vice President Walter Mondale.

The AFL-CIO, a key part of the Democratic coalition, says it wants to go big on climate change. But its policy goals don't always line up with other parts of the left.

Driving the news: The labor federation and the nonprofit Energy Futures Initiative yesterday unveiled a "framework for good jobs in a low-carbon future."

From live blogs to video chyrons and tweets, media companies are introducing new ways to fact check the presidential debates in real time this year.

Between the lines: The debates themselves are likely to leave less room for live fact-checking from moderators than a traditional news interview would.

The future seems clear to both parties: The Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade in the next few years, either gradually or in one fell swoop, and the abortion wars will move to a state-by-state battle over freedom and restrictions. 

What's new: Two of the leading activists on opposite sides of the abortion debate outlined for “Axios on HBO” the next frontiers in a post-Roe v. Wade world as the balance on the Supreme Court prepares to shift.

President Trump trails Joe Biden in most polls, has generally lower approval ratings and is behind in trust on most issues. Yet polls consistently give him an edge on the economy, which remains a top priority among voters.

Why it matters: If Trump wins re-election, it will largely be because Americans see him as the force rallying a still-strong U.S. economy, a narrative girded by skyrocketing stock prices and consistently climbing U.S. home values — but the man behind booming U.S. asset prices is really Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.

America First Action, the biggest pro-Trump super PAC, is spending another $40 million on economy-focused ads in key states ahead of November, including a new targeted campaign in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Why it matters: It shows Republicans remain concerned about Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and even Georgia — all states Trump won in 2016.

Joe Biden's proposal to increase Affordable Care Act subsidies and open the marketplace to people with employer insurance could save millions of people hundreds of dollars a month, according to a new Kaiser Family Foundation analysis.

Why it matters: Biden's plan to build on the ACA — making it more affordable and drawing more people onto its exchanges — sets up a stark contrast with President Trump's vision, which is to tear the entire law down.

Thanks to growing momentum and changing attitudes among Americans, Brookings Institution fellow Andre Perry predicts that within 10 years the U.S. will provide some form of reparations to Black people.

What we're hearing: "What's happening in the streets today is indicative of the attitude change that is occurring in America," Perry, a scholar-in-residence at American University and author, said during our interview for "Axios on HBO."

The New York Times' bombshell tax investigation has become one of the most viral investigative news stories on social media during the Trump era, according to data from NewsWhip.

Why it matters: The years-long anticipation of the release of President Trump's tax returns has hit a nerve among Americans, many of whom have been waiting to see whether the returns reinforce rumors of the president's flimsy financial record.

Grand jury proceedings in the case of Breonna Taylor, an unarmed Black woman fatally shot by police, will be released on Wednesday, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron confirmed to news outlets.

Driving the news: Cameron's announcement late Monday came hours after a judge granted an unnamed juror's court motion seeking the release of last week's transcripts and related recordings.

The New York City Board of Elections issued an alert Monday night after voters complained they received mail-in ballots for November's election containing incorrect names, voter IDs and return labels.

Why it matters: Votes risk being voided if the names and required signatures do not match.

Bob Woodward didn't want to join Senate Republicans in privately condemning President Trump but declining to do so publicly, he told Jonathan Swan in an interview for "Axios on HBO."

Why it matters: Woodward has covered 9 presidents, but Trump is the first that Woodward explicitly described as "the wrong man for the job."

In the latest episode of "Axios on HBO," Jonathan Swan interviews Bob Woodward about his new book, "Rage," which was based on 19 interviews with President Trump.

A federal judge on Monday ruled that polling places in Georgia must have at least one paper backup list of eligible voters, in case the electronic pollbooks used to check voter registration malfunction on Election Day.

The big picture: Voting integrity activists who brought the suit have argued the order could keep long lines, like the ones seen in Georgia's June primary, from forming again. The order also requires the state to have emergency paper ballots on hand in the case of voting machine malfunction.