Thursday's economy stories

Reed Hastings to step down from Netflix board
Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings, 65, will not stand for re-election to the board when his current term expires in June, the company announced Thursday.
Why it matters: Under Hastings' tenure, Netflix grew to become one of the most powerful media companies in the world.

Unions bash AI as opposition grows: "We believe in human beings"
Union leaders are escalating their anti-AI rhetoric, portraying the industry's leaders as profit-hungry "oligarchs" eager to replace humans.
Why it matters: The contours of the emerging AI economy are still shapable — and the labor movement is eager to influence what it looks like.

Prediction markets regulator vows to investigate insider trading
The chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission vowed Thursday to investigate insider trading in prediction markets and bristled at the suggestion that he would impose regulations favoring the Trump family.
Why it matters: Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are facing growing pressure to prevent insiders from profiting from their knowledge on issues like politics, sports and war.

Rumors of the dollar's demise look much exaggerated
The Iran war may well be heightening countries' desire to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. But desire alone won't change the underpinnings of global commerce.
The big picture: There has been plenty of chatter about the breakdown of the petrodollar system under which Middle East oil exporters accumulate and redeploy dollars, and about the world's broader reliance on the dollar as a reserve currency. But there's not much evidence of an accelerating shift along those lines.
- Indeed, the war has coincided with a surge in the dollar's value on currency markets.

Exclusive: New AI jobs risk paper posits less doom and gloom
Workers whose jobs are most vulnerable to automation — data-entry keyers, bookkeepers and more — are already using AI for three times as many of their relevant tasks as workers in less-exposed jobs, according to a new study by OpenAI.
Why it matters: The research, first seen by Axios, shows that those workers are using AI for only a fraction of what it could theoretically do.
- The researchers posit a less doom-and-gloom outcome: Workers might not automatically be on the frontlines of a jobs bust, even as AI use expands.
- Paradoxically, it could ultimately expand demand for certain types of work.
By the numbers: OpenAI sorts the 900+ occupations that cover nearly all of U.S. employment into four buckets.
- 18% face the highest near-term automation risk, relative to other groups (think data-entry, bookkeeping, customer service)
- 24% of roles could see employment shrink, even as those jobs are still human-led (HR specialists)
- 12% of jobs could see employment expand because of AI (software developers, for one)
- 46% face the least threat of immediate change (teachers, home-health aides)
The intrigue: Signs of disruption aren't evident in unemployment data yet.
- Workers in the highest-automation-risk jobs have seen a smaller rise in unemployment than have workers in the "less immediate change" category, OpenAI finds.
- The paper cautions: "These categories are not job loss forecasts. They are a map for understanding where near-term labor market pressure may emerge first."
Zoom in: Workers in the most vulnerable categories are using AI more than those in any other bucket for the tasks most central to their work. Yet they've barely closed the gap between current usage and what AI could hypothetically do in their jobs.
- AI could theoretically handle 90% of tasks in the highest-risk occupations. But those workers are currently using it for less than a quarter of that, according to OpenAI usage data.
Yes, but: Whether AI ultimately destroys or creates jobs hinges on a critical tension — when AI makes a task easier to perform, people may simply consume more of it.
- "When coding tools first came out, people assumed maybe we would always write a fixed amount of code," OpenAI chief economist Ronnie Chatterji tells Axios.
- "Now I'm writing code, you're writing code — you produce more of something, and more people might demand it and pay for it."

Renewable energy gets an Iran war boost
Early signs are emerging that the energy shock could aid the global spread of renewable power, batteries, electric cars and other climate-friendly tech.
Why it matters: The throttling of oil and gas transit — together with higher prices — has short- and long-term consequences for use and economics of different fuels.

Exclusive: Walmart pushes beyond prescriptions in GLP-1 race
Walmart is making a play to own what it calls the "last mile" of the GLP-1 boom, telling Axios exclusively it's launching a platform that goes beyond prescriptions to combine virtual care and nutrition.
Why it matters: Weight-loss treatments like Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound are exploding, but the real friction is everything around them. The retail giant is betting it can simplify that fragmented system.


Behind the Curtain: The kids aren't AI-right
America, we have a problem: Young adults are scared and unprepared for the AI revolution upending their early career choices and prospects.
- They tell pollsters they're frightened, even angry, about AI's fast arrival. They're rightly unnerved by a tough job market for college grads. And most aren't remotely equipped by schools to be AI-savvy.
Why it matters: This is a growing problem for just about everyone — kids, educators, employers and politicians.

Iran war's ripple effects hit key U.S. trading partners
The Iran war is hurting countries far from the Middle East that have no direct involvement in the conflict — and while the U.S. has largely escaped the worst economic impacts, experts warn this could soon change.
Why it matters: As American and Iranian negotiators inch toward a peac deal, the conflict is hurting countries the U.S. relies on for key imports.


Live Nation and Ticketmaster lose antitrust case
A New York jury on Wednesday found that event promoter Live Nation and its Ticketmaster subsidiary violated U.S. and state antitrust laws.
Why it matters: It's a major embarrassment for the Trump administration, which recently settled its case with minimal concessions.

Why stocks surged to a new record


Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit new all-time closing highs on Wednesday.
Why it matters: Stocks are soaring on hopes that the Iran war will fade and on signs that Americans are continuing to spend — despite rising prices at the pump and souring sentiment.

Consumers hold steady despite rising energy prices, job jitters, BofA says
American consumers are holding it together despite surging energy prices, concerns about the job market and stock market volatility, according to Bank of America executives.
Why it matters: As one of the largest banks in the country, BofA has a direct line of sight into the financial health of consumers.

Bayer CEO: "We need a predictable regulatory regime" for Roundup weedkiller
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson says the German crop science and drug company is hoping to move past the long-running controversy over its Roundup weedkiller in 2026.
Why it matters: Bayer — which acquired Roundup when it bought Monsanto in 2018 — recently announced a $7.25 billion settlement deal and is awaiting a Supreme Court ruling that could decide the product's fate in the U.S.

Venture capital is not what it was
U.S. venture capital investment easily hit an all-time record in Q1 2026, according to data released today by PitchBook and the National Venture Capital Association. In fact, domestic startups raised more last quarter than in any entire year, save for 2021 and 2025.
Yes, but: U.S. venture capital investment decreased quarter-over-quarter, if you remove just five Q1 2026 transactions.

It's been a weird 24 hours for the Fed
The message from top Republicans on Tuesday morning was that things were on track for an orderly transition atop the Federal Reserve when chair Jerome Powell's term ends next month. Events over the next 24 hours made those prospects messier.
The big picture: As much as Senate Republicans seek an off-ramp that would smooth the path for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair, the legal stalemate holding things up has escalated.
Driving the news: On Tuesday, three Justice Department officials showed up unannounced at the Fed's construction site, looking to investigate the $2.5 billion renovation project, the New York Times reported.
- They were turned away, and a lawyer for the Fed subsequently said that it was inappropriate and that the DOJ must go through Fed lawyers in its investigation.
- In an interview aired on Fox Business Wednesday morning, President Trump, when asked what he would do if Powell does not resign from his position as a governor when his term as chair is up, said, "Well, then I'll have to fire him."
- The legality of the president's efforts to fire another Fed governor, Lisa Cook, is currently pending before the Supreme Court.
Catch up quick: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is pledging to block Warsh's nomination from advancing until the Justice Department investigation — which he and Fed leaders view as a blatantly pretextual attack on the central bank's independence — is resolved.
- Powell, whose term as a governor extends until 2028, has said, "I have no intention of leaving the Board until the investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality."
- A federal judge quashed earlier DOJ subpoenas of the Fed, ruling that there is "abundant evidence" that its purpose "is to harass and pressure Powell" to either yield to Trump on monetary policy or resign.
Between the lines: There is seemingly a schism between Republicans who want to move on and get Warsh into place as promptly as possible, and Justice Department officials — particularly Jeanine Pirro, U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia — who want to deliver to Trump the vengeance he seeks.
- The latest events are the opposite of the kind of de-escalation that the senators who must vote to confirm Warsh seek.
What they're saying: Axios asked top White House economist Kevin Hassett on Wednesday morning about what comes next and whether there is a path for Warsh to be confirmed by next month.
- "I have high confidence that that will happen," Hassett said. He added that the way the Justice Department got involved "was that the president wanted to investigate the cost overrun."
- "So right now, the Fed's position is that they can spend as much money, perhaps wasting, as they want, and the White House is not allowed to inspect it."
As to whether Powell should resign as a governor when his term as chair ends next month, Hassett said, "Jay will have to decide for himself what he wants to do."
- "But the tradition is once a Fed chairman is confirmed, then the previous chairman resigns, and I think Fed chair Powell has said he would do that as long as he felt he wasn't in legal jeopardy," Hassett said.
That's not all when it comes to developments in the relationship between the Trump administration and the Fed: There has also been a softening of the administration's calls for immediate interest rate cuts.
Why it matters: With inflation surging thanks to the Iran war, Warsh — once confirmed — will face a tricky task in trying to deliver the rate cuts Trump has demanded.
- The latest comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, echoed Wednesday morning by Hassett, suggest that Warsh will not face immediate pressure from the White House to deliver cheaper money.
"I believe rates should be cut ... but if they want to wait for some clarity, I understand that," Bessent told a small group of reporters Tuesday.
- He added that "we should wait for the new chairman, Warsh, and let him lead the next cycle."
Hassett seconded those comments on Wednesday morning.
- "I understand that the energy shock will certainly have some repercussion for global inflation," Hassett told Axios, after noting Bessent's comments.
- "But on the other hand, core inflation is at the lowest level since the Biden inflation began, and interest rates in the U.S. are higher than for comparable countries around the world," he added.
- "If I were a [Fed] governor, I would still be willing to cut rates because I know that oil price shocks don't lead to inflation."

Lyft starts Nashville robotaxi hub for Waymo fleet
Lyft and Waymo might be ride-hailing rivals, but they're also partners in Nashville, where Lyft's Flexdrive subsidiary will manage Waymo's newly deployed robotaxi fleet.
Why it matters: It's the latest example of frenemies working together to deliver on a shared vision for an autonomous future.

Starbucks taps ChatGPT to match your mood with a drink
Starbucks is rolling out a new AI-powered feature in ChatGPT that suggests drinks based on your mood, cravings or even a photo.
Why it matters: The coffee giant is among the first major restaurant chains embedding AI into discovery and ordering — a preview of the next-gen digital menu.

Airline mega-merger story is all about Trump
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines while meeting with President Trump last month, according to multiple reports.
Why it matters: Corporate America has concluded that federal antitrust approval now comes from the top.

Walmart revamps Great Value as store brands surge
Walmart is overhauling its biggest brand, Great Value, for the first time in more than a decade.
Why it matters: The retail giant's private-label brand is one the nation's largest for everyday grocery and household products — outsizing many major food companies, Walmart told Axios.

Investors see past war, sending stocks near all-time high


The S&P 500 just took a round-trip — the stock benchmark for investors has recovered, and then some, from a war-driven selloff.
Why it matters: It's a split-screen moment: investor enthusiasm happening alongside the biggest energy shock in history, a rise in inflation and warnings about slower economic growth.

Finish Line: The final countdown to college deadline day
Editor's note: Congrats to Axios head of news Ben Berkowitz, whose son just committed to a college over the weekend. Ben reflects on the process — relatable for any parent of high schoolers in 2026.
Raising a child means having lots of tough conversations. What no one ever tells you is that the most enraging exchange of all will be: "So, have you picked a college yet?"
- If, like me, you have a high school senior at home, May 1 — the commitment deadline — looms like a slow-motion train wreck.
The big picture: It seems simple: Here's the list. We know the locations, we know the costs, now pick one.


















