Eli Lilly doesn't expect oral GLP-1 pill to hurt injectable sales
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Eli Lilly execs believe the first oral version of their blockbuster GLP-1 drugs won't cannibalize sales of the injectables currently driving diabetes care and weight loss.
Why it matters: The GLP-1 market leader is widely expected to gain regulatory approval for a pill version in the second quarter — a potentially transformational accelerant in a category already driving Lilly's fastest growth.
Between the lines: The initial results of competitor Novo Nordisk's oral GLP-1 pill — which hit the U.S. market in January — indicate that 90% of patients are new users of the treatment class, Lilly CFO Lucas Montarce tells Axios.
- There's "not a lot of switching taking place," Montarce said Wednesday in an interview. It "mainly is actually a market expansion."
The impact: That emerging reality partially fueled Lilly's bullish revenue projection of $80 billion to $83 billion for 2026.
- Wall Street had expected $77.7 billion, according to Bloomberg.
That would mark a significant increase from 2025, when the company's revenue rose 45% to $65.2 billion, powered by the soaring popularity of diabetes drug Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound.
By the numbers: In 2025, Mounjaro sales rose 99% while Zepbound grew 175%, together generating $36.5 billion.
- Meeting that 2026 projection would mark a nearly three-fold increase from 2022.
- "We view LLYs 2026 financial guidance as highly encouraging," Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger wrote Wednesday in a research note.
State of play: Lilly's momentum is coming at the expense of rival Novo, whose Ozempic and Wegovy drugs have been losing share to Mounjaro and Zepbound.
- Novo's net sales rose only 6% in 2025, and the company expects "pricing headwinds in an increasingly competitive market" in 2026.
Zoom out: Volume growth will be central to growing the franchise.
- Montarce told Axios he expects Lilly will experience "price erosion" in 2026, but that the company will reap the benefits of more customers coming from Medicare, which recently expanded coverage criteria for obesity drugs.
- "Those are long term opportunities that we can unlock," Montarce said.
He acknowledged, though, that some patients currently paying cash for Lilly's GLP-1 treatments through the company's LillyDirect program will likely transition to Medicare coverage once available.
What we're watching: Whether other competitors can break into the space.
- Pfizer reported Tuesday that an obesity drug candidate it bought via its acquisition of Metsera is showing promise in trials.
- Montarce acknowledged an increasingly competitive landscape, but said the need for significant manufacturing investments will hold some prospective competitors back.
The bottom line: Lilly stock was up over 9% to $1,098 at 3pm ET Wednesday. Novo shares were trading down 6%, to $47.33.
