Exclusive: Kalshi CEO expects feds to probe "bad actors" on prediction markets
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Fast-growing prediction markets will attract fraud and insider trading, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour acknowledged on "The Axios Show," but he said investigators will "inevitably" expose and punish bad actors.
Why it matters: Operators like Kalshi and Polymarket are under pressure to root out suspected incidents of insider trading, particularly on matters like politics, war, sports and entertainment.
- Mansour made the comments in an interview with Dan Primack on "The Axios Show," our series featuring top Axios reporters interviewing newsmakers shaping politics, business, tech, and culture.
Between the lines: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates Kalshi to operate in the U.S. Mansour said if there was a yes/no bet on his own platform on whether the CFTC would pursue an insider trading case in the next 12 months, he expects the answer would be "yes."
- He said "our job as an exchange and the job of regulators" is to "flag these bad actors and detect and deter," and "you punish them when you find someone who did something bad."
- As prediction markets grow, Mansour sees feds cracking down on offenders as natural — even welcome: "It's a good thing."
Threat level: Kalshi has made an effort in recent weeks to show that it's being proactive about addressing bad actors on its platform.
- The company said it would preemptively block athletes from trading on their games and political candidates from trading on their campaigns.
- Kalshi and peers face a deluge of legislation that would ban or limit prediction markets — some over insider trading concerns, and some over the premise that prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by the states.
CFTC chair Mike Selig, who was appointed by President Trump, has signaled support for prediction markets and directed the commission to wage a legal battle against states that try to shut them down.
