Axios

President Trump announced that he canceled planned strikes against Iran on Thursday and claimed Iran's leadership "approved" a draft agreement that would extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch 60 days of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.

Why it matters: Trump has claimed an agreement was close multiple times before, and Tehran said in response to Trump's latest claim that there had been no "final decision." However, three sources briefed on the talks told Axios that key gaps were narrowed during talks between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators on Wednesday.

President Trump is once again threatening to seize Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub and a high-value target in the months-long war.

The big picture: Attacks on the small island's oil infrastructure — or a full-blown takeover — could choke Iran's revenue, but there's no guarantee the stark escalation would persuade Iran to accept Trump's terms.

President Trump said the U.S. will hit Iran with new strikes Thursday and threatened to seize Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub.

Why it matters: This will be the third consecutive night the U.S. military strikes Iran. U.S. officials say the goal is to push Iran to show more flexibility in the negotiations over its nuclear program.

A year's worth of inflation-adjusted wage gains vanished in just four months, leaving workers little better off than when President Trump returned to office.

Why it matters: The reversal shows how the recent energy-driven inflation surge is eating into household purchasing power. Real pay for rank-and-file workers is up just 0.1% since Trump took office in January 2025.

• Rising real wages helped underpin the White House's case that the economy was improving. That advantage has now largely disappeared.

Elon Musk is on the verge of financial immortality: The world's richest man — and potentially its first trillionaire — has built a sovereign corporate kingdom that is too systemic to fail.

• And yet, on the eve of SpaceX's monster IPO, its CEO was hunkered down in his digital fiefdom stoking far-right culture wars with an impunity unmatched in modern corporate history.

Why it matters: Musk's years in the public eye, marked by serial controversy and an accelerating embrace of white identitarian politics, have inured investors to conduct that would be disqualifying for almost any other CEO.

The U.S. military launched strikes on Iran on Wednesday for the second consecutive evening. U.S. officials said the intent was to pressure Tehran to sign a deal, but the strikes also carry a risk of military escalation.

The big picture: U.S. officials said they expected an Iranian response, possibly targeting U.S. bases, as happened Tuesday. Tehran announced Wednesday night its military had targeted the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain with drones in response to the latest American strikes — though it wasn't immediately clear whether it had struck anything.

A group of congressional Republicans is urging the U.S. International Trade Commission to enforce U.S. patent rights in a case involving Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., according to a letter exclusively obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: This escalates a fight over whether the world's largest chip manufacturer, TSMC, should receive special consideration because of its role in providing the U.S. the chips necessary to stay ahead in the global AI race.

OpenAI has banned China-linked accounts that used ChatGPT to draft social media influence campaigns targeting U.S. debates over tariffs and AI data centers, the company said Wednesday.

Why it matters: The campaigns don't appear to have been effective, but they show how pro-China actors are testing AI tools to amplify existing political and economic divisions in the U.S.

The trigger for President Trump's strikes on Iran was the downing of a U.S. helicopter, but behind the scenes Trump had been growing more and more frustrated over nearly two weeks of waiting for an Iranian response to his latest offer that still has not arrived.

Why it matters: The strikes on Tuesday evening were intended to restore some leverage, but be calibrated such that no one would be killed and the possibility of a deal would not be foreclosed, a senior U.S. official told Axios.

President Trump told reporters that the U.S. would hit Iran "hard" again on Wednesday, after conducting strikes on Tuesday evening.

The big picture: Trump said Iran had been "playing us for suckers" during negotiations, and the U.S. would be "attacking them very hard."

Two of the world's most important central banks appear poised to raise interest rates in the coming days, as policymakers look to get ahead of the energy price surge translating into broader inflation.

Driving the news: The European Central Bank's policy committee meets Thursday and is expected to raise its main deposit rate to 2.25%, from 2%, which would be its first rate increase in three years.

Inflation hit the highest rate in over three years in May, as the economic fallout from the Iran conflict ripples through the U.S. economy.

Why it matters: Inflationary pressures tied to the war keep building, squeezing household budgets and raising the risk that interest rates stay higher for longer.

With the Iran war now over 100 days old, here's the latest rolling snapshot of how it's driving changes in energy markets.

The big picture: Global oil use is going down (in the short term), UN climate officials are using the crisis to push for clean energy, and coal is getting more use in the Asia-Pacific region.

U.S. drug development is heavily dependent on China — and Washington is not keeping up with the whole-of-government response many experts say is needed to change that.

Why it matters: The U.S. is being held back by vulnerabilities like fragile supply chains for generic drugs and the lack of a cutting-edge biotech infrastructure.

The U.S. launched a series of strikes against Iran on Tuesday evening in response to Iran's downing of a U.S. helicopter, with Iran's military announcing retaliatory strikes targeting U.S. bases in the region.

The big picture: The latest exchange carried the risk of military escalation with Iran even as President Trump is seeking a deal to end the war.