Axios

President Biden said Friday that he is "convinced" that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine, and that U.S. intelligence indicates he will target Kyiv — the capital and a city of 2.8 million people.

Why it matters: U.S. officials are now certain that Russia is planning not just a small invasion to take territory in eastern Ukraine, but a large-scale attack that could topple the Ukrainian government and cause massive devastation across the country.

The U.S. believes Russia is responsible for recent cyberattacks in Ukraine, deputy national security adviser for cybersecurity Anne Neuberger said at the White House press briefing on Friday.

Why it matters: The U.S. has warned that Russian cyberattacks could precede or be coordinated in tandem with a military invasion. The targeting of Ukraine's Defense Ministry and several banks marked the largest denial-of-service attack in the country's history, per Axios' Zachary Basu.

Metadata from the messaging app Telegram indicates that pro-Russian separatist leaders created videos ordering "emergency" evacuations from eastern Ukraine two days ago, but posted them on Friday, Bellingcat first reported and Axios can confirm.

Why it matters: U.S. officials have for days now accused Russia of preparing to fabricate a pretext to invade Ukraine. The two-day-old metadata from the leaders of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics could undermine claims that they ordered the evacuations due to an imminent threat of a Ukrainian offensive.

The U.S. resumed avocado imports from Mexico after suspending them last week after a U.S. inspector in Mexico was threatened, the Department of Agriculture announced Friday.

Why it matters: Drug cartels regularly extort avocado growers in the state of Michoacan, where the inspection and threat occurred, though almost 80% of the avocados grown there went to U.S. markets in 2020 and 2021.

Pro-Russian separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine ordered the mass evacuation of women, children and elderly civilians to Russia on Friday, alleging that Ukraine was preparing a military offensive. Ukraine immediately denied the accusations.

Why it matters: U.S. officials have warned that Russia is preparing to manufacture a pretext to invade Ukraine in the coming days, and that it could take the form of a fabricated escalation in territory controlled by separatists.

Millions of people were warned to stay home as Storm Eunice began battering the U.K. and Republic of Ireland on Friday, after forecasters issued rare "danger to life" red alerts for populated areas including London.

Why it matters: Eunice, expected to be the worst storm to hit the countries in over three decades, was bearing down on regions still reeling from other deadly storms that struck Northwestern Europe this week.

Russia's Ministry of Defense announced Friday it would hold military drills with its strategic nuclear forces that will be personally supervised by President Vladimir Putin, according to AP.

Why it matters: The massive drills, which will take place on Saturday and involve practice launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, come as tensions between the West and Russia are high over Moscow's military buildup around Ukraine's borders.

Commercial satellite images have become ubiquitous in U.S. media as geopolitical tensions rise over a potential invasion of Ukraine.

Why it matters: The images are showcasing the abilities of Earth observing satellites that are often marketed as climate intelligence platforms, but in reality are also used for less advertised national security purposes.

Eileen Gu, Team China's 18-year-old U.S.-born skier, led the Winter Olympics highlights on Thursday — winning her second Beijing Games gold medal, this time in the freeski halfpipe.

The big picture: Team USA's men's curling team put up a good fight but lost their bronze medal match 8-5 to Canada on Day 14 of the Games.

Eileen Gu, Team China's 18-year-old U.S.-born skier, won the gold medal in the freeski halfpipe, with a score of 95.25 on day 14 of the Winter Olympics.

The big picture: It's Gu's third medal and second gold of the Beijing Games. She also won gold in the big air freestyle and earned silver in the women's freestyle skiing slopestyle.

The top court in sports published a 41-page report on Thursday detailing why it allowed Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva to continue competing at the Beijing Winter Olympics and why banning her would cause her "irreparable harm."

Why it matters: Valieva was cleared to compete in Thursday's individual figure skating competition by a panel of arbitrators, despite having trimetazidine, a banned drug, in her system during the Russian national championships in December.

Senior U.S. officials pivoted Thursday from warning of the threat that Russia could soon invade Ukraine to the firm expectation the invasion is about to begin.

What they're saying: “If Russia doesn’t invade, we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong," Secretary of State Tony Blinken said today. But both he and President Biden made quite clear that they believe Vladimir Putin has chosen war, and Blinken went so far as to present the playbook the U.S. expects Putin to follow.