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National

Axios Pro Policy

Anti-abortion measures are complicating House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) efforts to pass spending bills before a government shutdown, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: McCarthy's struggles to unify his fractious conference in spending fights, even before tough negotiations with the Senate, means funding the government by the Sept. 30 deadline will be a tall order.

Driving the news: Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) told Axios he opposes a bill funding the Department of Agriculture over a provision reversing FDA guidance that allows the abortion pill mifepristone to be sent by mail and dispensed at retail pharmacies.

“There are several issues I have with the Agriculture Appropriations bill. If it’s brought to the House Floor in its current form, I cannot support it and will vote no," he said in a statement.

What we're hearing: Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.) suggested the concern is shared by freshman Republicans from New York, most of whom represent districts President Biden won in 2020.

"The New Yorkers have been in conversation about it," he told Axios. "The conversations are continuing, we're going to express our displeasure to leadership and go from there."

Molinaro and D'Esposito both spoke out against a judge's ruling in April banning mifepristone, as did Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), another Biden-district freshman, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who has warned of the electoral consequences of her party's abortion moves.

The big picture: Spending bills that fund the Departments of Defense, State, Health & Human Services, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security also have provisions that would ban the use of federal funds for abortion.

The HHS bill includes a provision that completely eliminates funds to clinics such as Planned Parenthood that provide family planning services.

State of play: The Ag-FDA bill was passed out of the Appropriations Committee in June along party lines.

Like other House GOP appropriations bills, it sets spending below the caps laid out in the bipartisan debt ceiling deal.

Because of their narrow majority, House Republicans can only afford a handful of defections on party-line floor votes. 

Yes, but: The National Defense Authorization Act passed last week despite concerns of a moderate revolt over a measure blocking a Pentagon policy reimbursing service-members for abortion-related expenses.

Moderate Reps. John Duarte (R-Calif.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) voted against including the abortion amendment but ultimately ended up voting for the final bill.

But restricting mifepristone goes much further than restricting federal funds for abortion, putting a larger group of Republican moderates from blue and purple districts in a bind.

What we're watching: House Appropriations Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) told Axios that she may submit an amendment to the Ag-FDA bill that would strip the mifepristone rider, setting up a potential floor fight.

Many of the abortion provisions, if they manage to pass the House, would likely be stripped out in negotiations with the Democratic-controlled Senate.

But the stark divide between the two chambers on both spending levels and controversial policy riders will make make funding the government on time far more difficult.

passed out of the Appropriations Committee

Scoop: Abortion threatens House spending fights

New York Republicans have concerns about an abortion pill provision.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Abortion

Politics & Policy

House conservatives who have mostly backed Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are privately warning that they're paranoid of budgetary gimmicks instead of significant cuts in the coming appropriations bills.

Why it matters: One GOP lawmaker told Axios they expect the spending fight to be "World War III," with multiple GOP sources doubtful that Congress will pass all 12 appropriations bills by Sept. 30 to avoid a government shutdown.

The debt ceiling deal between McCarthy and President Biden — which would set discretionary spending caps at $1.59 trillion for fiscal year 2024 — included clawbacks to COVID spending and IRS funding.

House conservatives wanted deeper cuts, and the deal had to be passed with significant Democratic support. They're now wary that McCarthy may try to repeat this dynamic. 

Zoom in: A recent poll taken during a meeting of the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in Congress, showed 78% of respondents are not supportive of relying on rescissions — in this case the clawbacks from the debt ceiling deal — to get to desired spending levels.

"Folks ... want real spending cuts, and this place is famous for math that never really quite works out," RSC Chairman Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) told Axios. 

Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) — a McCarthy ally who served as a key negotiator in the debt ceiling deal — argued that the use of rescissions should not be taken off the table.

What they're saying: "There are people who would like to see us get to $1.471 without rescissions and certain folks have said that all along. I will say in January, that was not what we talked about," Graves told Axios.

"The speaker has made it crystal clear that it is his objective to get appropriations down as low as functionally possible, and so that's what we're doing," Graves told Axios.

What to watch: McCarthy recently said he won't combine the 12 spending bills into a single omnibus package, a practice that has infuriated conservatives in the past. But he hasn't ruled out grouping the bills into several "minibuses" if necessary to avoid a shutdown.

Conservatives want the appropriations bills passed individually with the ability to be amended.

"We're not going to know what our final number is or how close we are to that $1.471 trillion unless we actually know what the [12 appropriations bills] are," a GOP member told Axios.

Between the lines: Conservatives are also growing worried about a provision in the debt ceiling deal that would impose automatic 1% cuts to all discretionary spending programs — including defense — unless the appropriations bills are passed by Dec. 31.

The threat is intended to force both sides to follow through on the agreement.

Conservatives fear the blanket cuts would harm the defense budget and cost them the opportunity to enact deeper cuts in areas they care about.

The bottom line: Multiple members of the House GOP conference acknowledged that McCarthy has beaten the odds on passing key pieces of legislation while dealing with a narrow majority.

"Kevin survives hour by hour. He's done a good job and he's surprised even his detractors," a senior Republican told Axios.

"But his strategy is to survive the day, so there's a conflict that is inevitable. The trains are going to go off the tracks — we just don't know whether it’ll happen this week, three weeks, three months or whatever."

House GOP squeezes McCarthy on "World War III"-level spending fight

“Kevin survives hour by hour," one senior member told Axios.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Appropriations (law)

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

As the writers and actors strikes continue, TV networks are cobbling together schedules for the fall season and putting their hopes on unscripted content.

Why it matters: Broadcast networks already desperate for viewers will face new challenges in trying to retain eyeballs as more people transition to streaming.

Networks are "hit the most" by the ongoing strikes, which will only increase cord-cutting, hurting traditional broadcast TV, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told Axios.

"It’s clear that advertisers are not enthusiastic about reruns. If there are no new TV shows, ad revenues should drop by a lot," he added.

Driving the news: NBC, CBS, Fox and The CW have all shaken up their fall lineups as Hollywood comes to a historic halt.

The new schedules are heavy on game shows, reality television, shows from streaming platforms and live sports.

All of NBC's popular crime drama shows from Dick Wolf, like “Chicago P.D.” and “Law & Order,” have been moved off of the network's fall schedule, 

Fox's fall schedule will feature WWE wrestling on Friday nights. While CBS and ABC will both turn to shows popular on streaming and cable — Paramount Network's "Yellowstone" will broadcast on CBS, while ABC will air Disney+'s "Ms. Marvel."

Between the lines: While broadcast reality TV and game shows might be popular, eventually it "becomes more and more and more the same," Pachter said.

"It's a stopgap. No, it's not that effective," Pachter said of networks' strategies to circumvent the lack of new content.

The popularity of live sports will likely keep broadcast networks alive, but when it comes to reruns of old shows, networks simply can't compete with the extensive catalogs of streaming services, he said.

The result, he said, is consumers will eventually see more value for money in streaming services. 

State of play: The first quarter of 2023 saw cord-cutting reach "new all-time worst levels" as households without linear TV subscriptions now outnumber those that do, media analysis firm MoffettNathanson said in a May report.

The average cable bundle costs $83 per month.

On the other hand, Deloitte’s annual Digital Media Trends survey, released in April, revealed that the average U.S. consumer pays $48 per month for subscription streaming services.

Pay-TV subscriptions now have a market penetration of just 58.5% of U.S. households, a level not seen since 1992, per the report.

Yes, but: Many streamers have been raising prices in recent years, sparking backlash from consumers.

While streamers are "the least impacted" by the strikes due to their large catalogs and international content, Pachter said, they're also not totally immune.

Streamers, which have poured billions of dollars into hundreds of new scripted TV shows in the past few years, will need to start exploring more broadcast-like TV programming, including live sports and reality shows. 

Netflix, for example, is now exploring live TV and is reportedly planning to livestream its first sporting event this coming fall, per the Wall Street Journal. 

Apple+ will also look to make good use of its streaming deal with Major League Soccer, per CNBC.

What to watch: How programming changes impact viewership at a time when TV networks are already struggling to retain eyeballs.

Hollywood strikes upend fall TV

While broadcast reality TV and game shows might be popular, eventually it "becomes more and more and more the same."

Illustration of a toppled over vintage television with color bars falling out onto the floor

Television

Media

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Data: Council on Criminal Justice; Chart: Axios Visuals

Car thefts in dozens of cities across the U.S. have skyrocketed so far this year, according to a new report on crime. 

Why it matters: Motor vehicle thefts are up by roughly 34% from the same period last year, underscoring how crime patterns have evolved as the country has emerged from the pandemic.

The mid-year data, released Thursday by the Council on Criminal Justice, also shows how online fads can help fuel real-world crime trends.

"It’s likely that much of the increase is the result of thefts of Kia and Hyundai models," the report said — though it noted that rates were already rising before those brands became popular targets.

Kia and Hyundai thefts surged in cities nationwide this year after a popular TikTok challenge showed users how to steal the cars.

By the numbers: The number of car thefts in the first six months of the year was 104.3% higher than the same period in 2019, the CCJ study found.

Of the 32 cities that provided crime data, seven of them saw rates shoot up by 100% or more compared to the same time last year.

Rochester, New York, saw the largest increase of vehicle thefts, with a spike of 355%, while St. Paul, Minnesota, saw the biggest drop at 41%.

Zoom in: CCJ couldn't "directly confirm that Kias and Hyundais are the most targeted" based off the data, report co-author Ernesto Lopez told Axios. 

But "many jurisdictions have filed suit against these manufacturers, citing extremely large increases in vehicle thefts," he said.

Hyundai and Kia released new anti-theft software earlier this year in response to the issue.

The big picture: Motor vehicle theft is a "keystone crime" — meaning one "that facilitates the commission of homicide and other offenses," the CCJ noted in a press release.

“The overwhelming majority of vehicle thefts are associated with another crime. This would include both violent and property crimes, including selling stolen vehicles," Lopez told Axios.

While car thefts are increasing, homicides and other violent crimes are down in the first half of 2023.

Yes, but: "Though the level of serious violent crime is far below historical peaks, it remains intolerably high, especially in poorer communities of color," the report says.

The authors said "policymakers and communities must act urgently to adapt their strategies to meet the new challenges," and they pointed to research identifying measures that "reduce violence and improve the fairness and effectiveness of policing."

"Intensive efforts on both fronts are essential to help cities achieve lasting reductions in homicide and other crime," the report said.

Car thefts skyrocket in cities across the U.S.

Car thefts in the first half of 2023 were 104.3% higher than the same period in 2019.

Automobiles

Latino

Axios Latino

As cinephiles gear up for Friday's release of "Oppenheimer," the blockbuster biopic about the "father of the atomic bomb," some residents in southern New Mexico where the bomb was first tested say they've been largely erased from the narrative.

The big picture: Those residents say their families have battled rare cancers for generations and have been ignored while Manhattan Project scientists like J. Robert Oppenheimer are celebrated.

Details: "Oppenheimer," directed by Christopher Nolan and starring Cillian Murphy and Emily Blunt, follows the American scientist as his team races to create the bomb and deals with the aftermath of its creation.

The movie is based on the 2006 Pulitzer Prize-winning biography "American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer."

"Oppenheimer" brings painful memories for New Mexico Hispanics

People who lived near the site of the Trinity Test have battled rare cancers for generations and say they're ignored.

Axios

Thursday's top stories

Scoop: Abortion threatens House spending fights

House GOP squeezes McCarthy on "World War III"-level spending fight

Hollywood strikes upend fall TV

Car thefts skyrocket in cities across the U.S.

"Oppenheimer" brings painful memories for New Mexico Hispanics

Gender pay gap now the narrowest on record

AirTag and Tile stalking remains a thorny problem

Scoop: RNC taps Ruthless Podcast for "GameDay"-style debate pregame

The 15 hottest days, in the world's hottest month

Many hospitals posted record margins during pandemic, study finds

Axios-Ipsos poll: Retirement out of reach

Extreme heat indices above 105°F to hit 80 million people in U.S.