National

Special counsel Jack Smith is wrapping up his criminal investigation into whether former President Trump mishandled classified documents, having interviewed virtually every employee at his Mar-a-Lago home, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Why it matters: This is the probe widely believed to pose the most serious threat to Trump's freedom. Based on the publicly reported evidence, Republicans may struggle in their efforts to defend Trump and undermine Smith's credibility in the way they've tried to do with Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg.

Former Attorney General Bill Barr, who slammed Bragg's indictment last month as an "abuse of prosecutorial power," warned last week that Trump could be "very exposed" legally in the Mar-a-Lago case.

"I think this is a tight obstruction case," former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb also told CNN last week. "Yes, I do think he will go to jail on it."

What we know: The FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last August on suspicion that Trump had not returned all of the government documents in his possession, even after months of requests and a subpoena in May.

Trump's lawyer, Evan Corcoran, was forced to testify after a judge determined Trump may have used him to lie to prosecutors — piercing traditional attorney-client privilege with a "crime fraud exception."

Corcoran's remarkably detailed notes indicated he warned Trump that he could not keep the documents after the subpoena — and that Trump asked if they could push back against the Justice Department, according to The Guardian and CNN.

Between the lines: Proving that Trump deliberately took the documents and resisted giving them back — despite being told the law required him to — will be key to making Smith's case iron-clad.

Trump appeared to hand prosecutors a gift by confirming in his CNN town hall this month that he knowingly "took the documents" because he was "allowed to" — citing an inaccurate interpretation of the Presidential Records Act.

He also claimed the documents became "automatically declassified" when he took them.

The National Archives recently gave the special counsel 16 records showing Trump and his top advisers were aware of "whether, why and how" he could declassify documents — potentially undercutting that defense.

The big picture: Trump's indictment in Manhattan led to a surge in GOP support and fundraising, as Republicans — including Trump's rivals for the nomination — rallied to defend the former president and attack Bragg.

Some of Trump's associates are preparing to fundraise off of Smith's potential prosecution, according to the Journal, but it remains to be seen whether federal charges would elicit the same GOP rallying effect.

Meanwhile, the judge presiding over Trump's criminal case in Manhattan today set a March 25, 2024, trial date — smack dab in the middle of the GOP's presidential primaries.

What Jack Smith knows

This is the investigation widely believed to pose the most serious threat to Trump's freedom.

Smith presides during a 2020 war crimes hearing at The Hague for former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi. Photo: Jerry Lampen/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Mar-a-Lago

Politics & Policy

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is expected to announce his 2024 presidential campaign during a Twitter Spaces event with Elon Musk on Wednesday night, two sources confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: Twitter has become the center of gravity for conservatives ever since Musk, who's increasingly become cozy with Republicans, took over the platform. 

Driving the news: A source close to the governor’s campaign told Axios that there will be a “special Twitter Spaces on Wednesday, March 24 at 6:00 PM ET.”

Two others with knowledge of DeSantis' plans confirmed the announcement will be made on Twitter tomorrow.

NBC News first reported that while Musk and DeSantis will co-host the virtual audio event, the conversation will be moderated by David Sacks, a Musk confidant who supports DeSantis. 

News outlets and personalities like The Daily Wire and ex-Fox host Tucker Carlson have recently announced efforts to bring their shows to Twitter. 

In positioning himself as a free speech absolutist, Musk has been able to curry favor with many conservatives who for years have argued that Big Tech censors their views. 

The big picture: DeSantis has been long expected to enter the 2024 race. 

Thought bubble from Axios' Dan Primack: Political observers can differ on the DeSantis campaign strategy, but this is a surefire coup for Musk, as he tries to expand Twitter's user base.

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Please check back for updates. 

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DeSantis plans to announce presidential campaign on Twitter

Twitter has become the center of gravity for conservatives ever since Musk took over.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks to guests at the Republican Party of Marathon County Lincoln Day Dinner fundraiser on May 6 in Rothschild, Wisconsin. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Ron DeSantis

2024 Elections

Space

Axios Space

NASA's flagship program to get people back to the Moon is at risk in the debate over the country's budget.

Why it matters: The Artemis program has survived two presidential administrations and has bipartisan support in Congress.

Both administrations have worked to reduce the political risk of the multibillion-dollar program, awarding multiple contracts to commercial companies in multiple states and partnering with international space agencies.

What's happening: Efforts to insulate Artemis from possible cuts, delays and cancellation are facing a major test with the current budget fight on Capitol Hill.

If NASA's funding is stalled at the 2022 enacted level or reduced, agency administrator Bill Nelson has warned Artemis II and Artemis III could be delayed. The current launch dates are 2024 for Artemis II and 2025 for Artemis III.

Nelson also said in a March letter to Congress that NASA would need to make deep cuts to other parts of the program, potentially canceling contracts.

"How is Artemis going to survive this kind of active budget slashing?" the Planetary Society's Casey Dreier tells Axios. He says the program's survival hinges on lawmakers on both sides of the aisle working to preserve it.

Between the lines: NASA on Friday announced a $3.4 billion contract with Blue Origin to build a crewed lunar lander for the Artemis V mission that aims to bring astronauts to the lunar surface by 2029.

The Blue Moon lander is expected to dock with a small, yet-to-be built lunar space station called Gateway. NASA astronauts will arrive on Gateway via the Orion capsule and then be transported to the Moon's surface by Blue Moon.

SpaceX also has a contract with NASA to develop a lunar lander based on its Starship vehicle for the Artemis III and Artemis IV missions, which will bring the first NASA astronauts to the Moon since Apollo. 

Flashback: Jim Bridenstine, NASA administrator under former President Trump, worked to insulate the Artemis program from political whims when it was announced in 2019 by partnering with commercial companies and international partners early

"When we left, we had an international coalition. We had apolitical, bipartisan support. We had a program that sustained," Bridenstine told Axios in April at the National Space Symposium.

The big picture: All of NASA's partnerships with private companies and international agencies — a Canadian crew member will fly around the Moon for Artemis II and the European Space Agency is a major partner for the Gateway station — make for a complex program. 

Instead of a relatively simple mission structure like Apollo — which used the Saturn V rocket and one type of lander to send each crew directly to the lunar surface — Artemis makes use of multiple redundant systems and sprawling partnerships.

But those points of connection and inter-reliance have created a program that can potentially last.

"Getting to the Moon is really freaking hard," Dreier said, adding that even if the mission plans look a little patchwork, that could actually benefit NASA when it comes to creating a sustainable program.

NASA return to the Moon could be imperiled by politics

The space agency worked to insulate Artemis from political whims.

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San Antonio

Axios San Antonio

More Uvalde families are in need of mental health support as the trauma of the school shooting intensifies for some people one year after the tragedy.

What's happening: About 2,000 Uvalde residents have sought mental health support from the Ecumenical Center since the shooting, and the organization saw increase of about 20% in the number of people reaching out as the one-year mark approached, CEO Mary Beth Fisk tells Axios.

Ecumenical Center and Family Service, two San Antonio-based nonprofits providing services, are trying to ensure on-demand help for residents tomorrow by pulling in additional counselors or having staff on standby.

Alejandra Castro, rural services director for Family Service, tells Axios the provider's Uvalde office has also seen an uptick in visitors in recent weeks.

In addition to experiencing anxiety and trauma, many community members are dealing with financial stress as parents have missed work to help their children through their concerns, Castro says.

The Ecumenical Center started offering a range of therapies including play therapy, art therapy and eye movement desensitization and reprocessing last June. 

The big picture: Jessica Gomez, executive director of the Momentous Institute and a licensed psychologist based in Dallas, says mental health providers everywhere are increasingly encountering people struggling with trauma and chronic stress from violence in their communities. How they're treated — which is a challenge in view of the shortage of mental health professionals — varies by person, Gomez adds.

"Some people, it might be talk therapy, but for others it might be music therapy, art therapy, movement, and so we have to adapt to how the person processes trauma, because we know that trauma is trapped in the body, it needs to find a way out."

Trauma from a mass shooting can be exacerbated around the date of the incident, she adds.

"What you'll see is the person leading up to the date can start to almost become a little bit more irritable or a little bit more numb. It just depends where they are on the spectrum of symptoms."

"My deep worry right now — and what I'm hearing just from the school and the mental health programs that we do at Momentous Institute — is the chronic stress that people are experiencing. Just when we think we recover from one thing, there's another one."

While the one-year mark in Uvalde is a significant milestone, the groups have had a presence there since the day of the shooting

Uvalde is an hour from the Mexican border. About 80% of the 15,000 residents are Latino.

Of note: The Ecumenical Center also supported the Sutherland Springs and El Paso communities following the shootings in those cities in 2017 and 2019, respectively. 

Fisk says many people aren't immediately ready to start counseling.

"We want to remind everyone that everybody's got an individual grief journey and they're going to be ready to visit with a counselor at a different time. It may not be the first year, it may be the third year," she says.

Zoom out: Mental health professionals outside of Uvalde are also preparing, especially in San Antonio where residents share personal ties to the town.

UT Health San Antonio psychiatrist Dr. Giancaro Ferruzzi says parents should evaluate what their children know before sharing information that may not be age-appropriate and remaining open for questions.

Axios' Astrid Galván contributed to this report.

Go deeper: Listen to the Axios Today podcast, where Emily Peck, filling in for host Niala Boodhoo, and Madalyn Mendoza discuss the mental health support for the people of Uvalde.

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Mental health help on standby for Uvalde a year after shooting

Trauma from a mass shooting can be exacerbated around the date of the incident.

Photo illustration of Uvalde victims in mourning set against a background collage of torn paper and various shapes

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

Uvalde, Texas school shooting

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In the year since the Uvalde school shooting, the GOP-controlled Texas Legislature has largely ignored pleas for stricter gun laws from victims' families who have been spurred into activism.

The big picture: Over the summer and fall and during the legislative session, families drove 2 1/2 hours each way to the Capitol for multiple rallies and to meet with lawmakers.

But the issue remained intensely partisan, with Republican leaders unwilling to restrict firearm access. Instead, they moved to beef up security measures in schools, arm teachers and provide more access to mental health care.

Background: In the 140-day legislative session, a bill to raise the minimum age to buy certain semi-automatic rifles from 18 to 21 — a priority for the Uvalde families — advanced in a dramatic vote when two Republicans joined Democrats in voting the bill out of a House committee.

The vote from the Republicans, who represent the Dallas and Houston suburbs, came after the shooting at a mall in Allen, Texas, that left eight people dead earlier this month.

Republicans blocked a debate on the bill, known as HB 2744, in the full House.

Zoom out: Policies that a majority of Texans support according to polling, such as raising the minimum purchasing age, safe gun storage requirements, so-called red flag laws and background checks on all firearm purchases have been unpopular among Republicans in the Legislature.

Instead, the Legislature in recent years rolled back restrictions, allowing people to carry handguns openly and without a permit, among other measures.

Yes, but: Gun control activists say they saw some signs of cracks in the Legislature this session, which ends Monday.

Lawmakers approved a bipartisan measure to send juvenile mental health checks to the Texas Department of Public Safety, which they say is key to improving federal background checks on gun purchases. However, background checks are not required in certain private sales in Texas.

Plus, a bill to restrict straw purchases — when a person purchases a gun on behalf of someone who is not allowed to have one — will head to the governor if the Senate agrees with the House's changes.

What they're saying: Texas Gun Sense executive director Nicole Golden called the committee's approval of the raise-the-age bill "a milestone achievement," and the first time in recent history that gun control legislation inched forward.

"We were often forced to play a game of defense," Golden told Axios. "We won some of those battles, and we've frankly lost some of those battles — much to the detriment of our public safety."

The other side: Gun rights activists sprang into action over the committee's passing of the raise-the-age bill.

"We firmly believe that anyone who can exercise the fundamental right to vote or is considered old enough to die for their country should also enjoy all the protections our Constitution guarantees," the Texas Young Republican Federation said in a statement condemning the bill.

Of note: Rep. Justin Holland, a Rockwall Republican who voted to advance the raise-the-age bill, said in a statement after the vote that he does not believe in gun control.

"But after listening to many hours of testimony over this session, I became convinced that this small change to the law might serve as a significant roadblock to a young person (not old enough to buy tobacco or alcohol) acquiring a specific type of semi-automatic rifle intent upon using it in a destructive and illegal manner," Holland wrote.

Still, the measure failed behind closed doors as Uvalde families and activists filled the Capitol rotunda before a 10pm legislative deadline earlier this month. 

Brett Cross, the guardian of 10-year-old Uvalde victim Uziyah Garcia, was escorted out for chanting too loudly outside the House chamber.

The bottom line: Parents and advocates say they won't stop fighting. 

"I don't think there's some sort of bottom we're going to hit" that will make lawmakers change their minds, Golden said. "I think we've hit that bottom when children and teachers are slaughtered at a school."

In a tweet following the missed deadline and his removal from the Capitol, Cross tweeted: "2744 may have died tonight, but we will never stop!"

Uvalde families' push for gun control barely moves the needle

Republican leaders remain unwilling to restrict firearm access.

Photo illustration of the Texas state flag at half mast and Uvalde citizens on a collage with paper and various shapes

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

In Uvalde, reminders of the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School — and the town's resolve in the face of tragedy — remain one year later.

Details: Crosses surround the bright blue fountain in a downtown square. Friends and family have left notes for their loved ones in English and Spanish, recalling yearbook signatures. Dried flowers cover the ground.

There are unmistakable signs of childhood placed alongside the crosses: a large plush shark for Maite Rodriguez, bubble wands for Annabell Rodriguez, Sour Patch Kids and Airheads for Amerie Jo Garza.

A giant stuffed lion for Uziyah Garcia has matted hair, like the other stuffed animals, presumably from their exposure to rain and sun.

A Mothers' Day balloon swings in the breeze next to a cross for Eva Mireles, a teacher killed in the shooting.

"Uvalde Strong" signs still sit in the windows of local businesses, where passersby can see the bold colors of murals reflected back at them.

There are other tributes to the 21 victims. Colorful murals are scattered throughout the South Texas town, one for each of 19 children and two teachers killed.

The big picture: Memorializing a traumatic event can help a community move forward, Abel Ortiz, a Uvalde-based artist and art professor at Southwest Texas Junior College who helped organize the mural project, tells Axios.

But memorials also must strike a balance so as not to further harm those affected.

Ortiz got consent and details from the victims' families for the murals.

The artists hope the murals offer a space for the victims' families to reflect and heal.

Zoom in: Alina De Leon worked as an assistant artist on the mural for 10-year-old Amerie. De Leon is from Uvalde and attended Robb Elementary, and is now graduating from the University of Texas at San Antonio with a degree in fine arts.

She also grew up across the street from Amerie's mother, and wanted to help the family.

In the mural, Amerie is surrounded by some of the things she loved — art, a Starbucks vanilla bean latte and Chick-fil-A eight-piece nuggets with fries.

The brightly-colored mural, sealed to protect from the hot Texas sun, serves as a regular reminder of Amerie's joys and passions.

What they're saying: "They're still kids at the end of the day," De Leon says. "They had a lot to look forward to. You want to keep that image of them — that they're still full of life."

"Murals are accessible. They are a form of street art that makes a public space an open air gallery," Ortiz tells Axios. "And they're very much there — meaning the bright colors hook you in, then you realize the colors are symbolic."

What's next: The Uvalde City Council has approved plans for a permanent memorial downtown, per the San Antonio Express-News. Family members of the victims were working with the city on designs.

Uvalde officials plan to raze Robb Elementary, and plans for a new elementary school at a different site feature a memorial tree sculpture to honor the 21 people killed, per the Uvalde Leader-News.

However, demolition plans have been on hold as the district attorney has wanted to preserve the school as evidence.

De Leon will be glad to see the building go. Demolition doesn't mean anyone will forget, she says.

But she does want to see the lot where the school sits used in a way that benefits Uvalde, like as a community center.

A cross for Eva Mireles stands again a bright blue fountain in a square in downtown Uvalde, where other crosses sit around the pool to honor victims of the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School.

A memorial to Eva Mireles, a teacher killed in the Robb Elementary shooting, stands in a downtown Uvalde square, surrounded by Mothers' Day mementos. Photo: Megan Stringer/Axios

Zoom out: Uvalde can consider how other cities memorialized mass shootings.

Daniel Krauss spent much of the last decade considering the best way to build a memorial in Newtown, Conn., to honor the 26 students and teachers killed in the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in 2012. His daughter was in second grade at the time.

The memorial, which opened last fall, is a circular pool engraved with victims' names. A tree stands in the middle.

As chair of the memorial commission there, he learned along the way.

Listening to the community was important. Some people didn't want to see steel or glass used because those materials have a harsh connotation, Krauss tells Axios.

They took public feedback and kept their focus sharp.

"The most important opinions are the families that lost a loved one that day," Krauss tells Axios. "Their feelings were always put front and center."

Remembering Uvalde children's joy one year after shooting

Stuffed animals, crosses and bright murals memorialize the 21 people killed in the Texas school shooting on May 24, 2022.

Among 21 murals in Uvalde that pay tribute to the victims of the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School on May 24, 2022, are these depicting (clockwise from top left) Jailah Nicole Silguero, Maite Yuleana Rodriguez, Jayce Carmelo Luevanos and Nevaeh Alyssa Bravo. Photos: Courtesy of Abel Ortiz

Generate

Axios Generate

Absent new, more ambitious climate policies, the world is headed for a magnitude of climate change that would put about 2 billion people at risk of extreme heat by the end of the century, a new study finds. 

Why it matters: Limiting global warming to the Paris Agreement's target of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels would yield a five-fold reduction in the population exposed to unprecedented heat by the end of this century. 

The nearly 1.2°C (2.16°F) increase in global average surface temperatures to date has already knocked more than 600 million people out of the "human climate niche" in which society has historically thrived. 

Nearly 2 billion at risk from "unprecedented" climate conditions

Every 0.1°C increase in global average surface temperatures will expose 140 million people.

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